Stocks were mixed on Wednesday, after flip flop day where the indices sold off early, but battled back to close nearly flat. The Dow, down 180 at the lows, lagged losing "only" 73-points, or 0.28%, while the S&P was down a point and a half, and the Nasdaq closed slightly positive.
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The trade talks continue to keep the market buoyant and the bears have been unable to make any headway. As we've been talking about, the question many have is whether a trade deal is already priced in, and whether that will set up a sell the news reaction.
There's a lot going on in D.C. as the political turmoil is ratcheting up this week. So far that has had little effect on stocks, but I suppose an unsuspecting headline could change that.
Jerome Powell was in the spotlight on Wednesday as well, and as usual the market seemed to like what he had to say as the dip buyers were still busy. But we didn't see a big rally on day when he suggested that they will wrap up the balance sheet tightening this year, which again may suggest it is something else that is already priced in.
After a couple days of pulling back, oil bounced back gaining 2.5% yesterday and that also seemed to help stocks stabilize.
The month of March is historically fairly strong, but seasonality has been ineffective as an indicator recently. February is supposed to be one of the worst months of the year, and we see how that went.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The S&P 500 (C-fund) fell below some rising support yesterday but bounced back to close near the highs of the day giving the bulls a chance to follow-through today and end a short-term trend of a couple of lower highs and lower low days. That 2800 area is still an level many technicians are watching
The DWCPF (S-fund) had another solid day and small caps have been leading the charge since the lows in December. They lagged last year when interest rates were rising, and they are now benefiting from the Fed's more dovish stance.
The Dow Transportation Index also broke below some rising support this week but that 200-day EMA (blue) is just below and could add some support itself. The chart looks fine, but like many indices, it has come a long way in a fairly short amount of time.
The EFA (I-fund) was down fairly sharply, possibly because of the timing of their market closes, but overall it has been holding up well with the dollar slipping some this week, and the I-fund price seemed to take the late rally in U.S. stocks yesterday into consideration.
The AGG (F-fund) was down yesterday but it just made another new high on Tuesday. It seems to be flattening out a bit in that, despite new highs, it closed close to where it closed on the final trading day in January.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
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[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
[/TR]
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The trade talks continue to keep the market buoyant and the bears have been unable to make any headway. As we've been talking about, the question many have is whether a trade deal is already priced in, and whether that will set up a sell the news reaction.
There's a lot going on in D.C. as the political turmoil is ratcheting up this week. So far that has had little effect on stocks, but I suppose an unsuspecting headline could change that.
Jerome Powell was in the spotlight on Wednesday as well, and as usual the market seemed to like what he had to say as the dip buyers were still busy. But we didn't see a big rally on day when he suggested that they will wrap up the balance sheet tightening this year, which again may suggest it is something else that is already priced in.
After a couple days of pulling back, oil bounced back gaining 2.5% yesterday and that also seemed to help stocks stabilize.
The month of March is historically fairly strong, but seasonality has been ineffective as an indicator recently. February is supposed to be one of the worst months of the year, and we see how that went.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The S&P 500 (C-fund) fell below some rising support yesterday but bounced back to close near the highs of the day giving the bulls a chance to follow-through today and end a short-term trend of a couple of lower highs and lower low days. That 2800 area is still an level many technicians are watching
The DWCPF (S-fund) had another solid day and small caps have been leading the charge since the lows in December. They lagged last year when interest rates were rising, and they are now benefiting from the Fed's more dovish stance.
The Dow Transportation Index also broke below some rising support this week but that 200-day EMA (blue) is just below and could add some support itself. The chart looks fine, but like many indices, it has come a long way in a fairly short amount of time.
The EFA (I-fund) was down fairly sharply, possibly because of the timing of their market closes, but overall it has been holding up well with the dollar slipping some this week, and the I-fund price seemed to take the late rally in U.S. stocks yesterday into consideration.
The AGG (F-fund) was down yesterday but it just made another new high on Tuesday. It seems to be flattening out a bit in that, despite new highs, it closed close to where it closed on the final trading day in January.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
