Poolman's Account Talk

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amoeba said:
what's with the IFT? one day pony bet on tomorrow's chevron earnings before the open, or some other? good luck.
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Hi amoeba,

I put a bet in yesterday on some end of month window dressing. I have another 30 or so minutes to figure out what I want to do.
 
Yeah, what the heck, predicting some major event in next 30 days saying 20% change but no indication on which way??? I know the bears will say down but I'm not too sure on that...
 
If you buy call options, you're betting that what you've bought will go way up, more so than what you lose each day in time premium as you approach the expiration date (buying puts is a bet the underlying equity will go down...you can also be on the other side of the trade and sell puts or calls). Since that video indicates folks have been buying large blocks of VIX calls, they're betting that the VIX will go way up by 3rd Friday in September. And if the VIX goes up, that's essentially a bet that stocks are going to take a big nosedive in the next 6 weeks. They may be early, but so far that looked like a great bet yesterday, and they may have already sold the calls for a nice gain.

One more drop today to a new low for the day will create a clear impulsive 5 waves down from Wednesday's peak (which happens to be the exact day that John Needham at danielcode.com predicted for the top, so he wins the guru contest again if we down from here). That would mean the crash has started. So far though, it could still be just another move within the wedge and next week it will move higher to at least 1140 or even 1155 or so like all the lemmings are hoping for. The bottom of the wedge around 1107 looks like key support, breaking that with gusto I would think clinches it for the bears. To me the whole drop from Wednesday looks like just a 3 wave pullback, so it's back up from here....but I'm not gambling on that yet.

I might be a week or so early, but BP is close to filling it's gap around $43. So I just bought half the position I want in October $34 puts in BP today, betting BP drops well below $34 by 10/15/10. If so I'll be making a lot more money than Birchtree in BP between now and mid-October. :D
 
Thanks for the explination Tsunami.

I'd throw you some rep but I have to spread it around before I can give you another.
 
I'll monitor that put position on BP for profit under the $34 level. I suspect by October the price will be around $50.
 
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