Poolman's Account Talk

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Silverbird said:
It's white knuckle dollar time, this has been a long time coming. A lot of the strong dollar over the last 8 years at least has been an illusion. With the stock market going up, less investors are hiding in dollars. It's good long run because there are too many dollars being hoarded out there. HOWEVER it's also a warning that imports are going to get expensive, and we are no longer the big market for all comers. It also means we need to export more, and our goods will be cheaper here. "Strong dollar" over the last few years was due to ahem certain countries hoarding dollars to make their currency cheap, and a little more recently because there was nothing else that looked like a decent investment. That won't do it anymore. I'm not strong dollar because it's not realistic, but if we don't take advantage of our cheaper currency it will hurt hurt hurt.
Click to expand...
I understand the cheaper the dollar promotes exports and makes Oil and Gas more expensive in the homeland. With higher priced energy every commodity that is delivered will rise in price killing the buying power for the consumer, US/you and I. Rising prices for delivery to manufactures will cause the price of everything in the USA to escalate, IT GOES ON AND ON!! This is by no means all of the ramifications of a weak dollar, but enough for me to question the reasoning for holding the dollar down.:cool:
 
Re: the $, the weak dollar is bad for the middle and lower classes in this country but the fact is any US company with large overseas exposure wants a lower dollar to become more competitive overseas... we all know its been in the works for a while, whether your a Dem/Repub/or Indie. Neither the Dems or Repubs have the power to stop the most powerful companies from going after the growth in China, India, Brazil, etc. The easiest way for them to capture that growth is lower the dollar and make their products accessible to the growing middle classes in those countries. There is no way its going to stop in the next decade or two. I'm against it for the sake of our kids... but the fact is that's where its going no matter what or who is in office/congress, etc. In the long run manufacturing may return to the US because it will probably cost the same to have factories here as in China... we need to position the next generations to compete on a global scale.
 
Exactly, China and Japan trying to stimulate their own economies and consumption because the US market is rather well....let's say the borrowing fun is over.
 
Silverbird said:
It's white knuckle dollar time, this has been a long time coming. A lot of the strong dollar over the last 10+ years at least has been an illusion. "Strong dollar" was due to ahem certain countries hoarding dollars to make their currency cheap, and a little more recently because there was nothing else that looked like a decent investment. That won't do it anymore. With the stock market going up, less investors are hiding in dollars. It's good long run because there are too many dollars being hoarded out there, and it's the true state of affairs without manipulation. HOWEVER it's also a warning that imports are going to get expensive, and we are no longer the big market for all comers. It also means we need to export more, and our goods will be cheaper here. I'm not strong dollar because it's not realistic, but if we don't take advantage of our cheaper currency it will hurt hurt hurt.
Click to expand...


Silverbird,
This is EXCELLENT !!

I'm glad the bird has finally flown from the nest and is making herself known.

China and Japan trying to stimulate their own economies and consumption because the US market is rather well....let's say the borrowing fun is over.

REALITY CHECK 101 -- The course is now starting :)
 
Steadygain said:
Silverbird,
This is EXCELLENT !!
Click to expand...

DITTO!!!

The nice thing this presents for us is the newer markets opening up their domestic flood gates. The stocks of up and coming companies in Japan and China should do great for the next several years. Unfortunately the I fund does not carry much weight in the developing markets.
 
great timing on the GS inthemoneystocks vid... on the daily candlesticks of GS, it looks like it could be forming a H&S pattern. But, from the $99.99 low in April to the $156.86 point there is a measured bull move, I think the H&S may confirm itself it the lower line on the measured bull move doesn't provide support. BTW, I'm going to buy that and support it with an IFT for a quick move if it goes there the next couple of days.... that'll probably coincide with the 20 DMA/mid-bollinger along with a 1016-1018 on the S&P. Sorry to hijack your thread PM, but it kinda fits with inthemoney's vid.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p17079431220
 
Sorry Poolman on all the exchange rate yapping...

CNN article on falling dollar and rising stocks - some experts expect this odd trend to go back to normal (rising dollar and rising stocks) soon:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The dollar goes down. Stocks go up. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

One constant during the market's big rally -- now nearing its sixth month -- is that the greenback has taken a hit against the euro, yen and other currencies.

But some experts think that may be about to change. Stocks and the dollar could begin to move in the same direction. In fact, the dollar was up slightly Monday even as stocks once again moved higher.....

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/24/markets/thebuzz/index.htm?postversion=2009082412
 
The Market's are looking like a repeat of yesterday. At one point Dow was up over 100.

Market's appear to be getting tired.
 
Here we go again with the market's heading down near the end of day. I do hope the markets end up today but it's obvious the markets are getting tired. This seems to be perfect timing for the end of month so we can all get our 2 ift's again. My goal this year is 18%. That would put me + 38% for 2 calender years. :)


Go to the 4 minute time period on the Video if you don't have time to watch the whole thing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QH8U4VuYRg&feature=sub
 
Looks like we will start the day weak.......maybe we can end it strong......a Dip in the morning and take a running start at 1036 in the afternoon.
 
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