Poll: Predict next weeks close!

[TiCKed]

Let's see who has the best crystal ball!

Where will the C Fund be at the close on Friday, 19 May? Pick the closest.

 

[Wizard]

Next week is an option week. There are lots of shorts positions. We should end higher. I am playing a Monday morning sell off thou.

Weeks after options weeks have been brutal this year. So put me down for down the week after.

 

[tsptalk]

Holy cow! We agree. It can't be right.

 

[Spaf]

I'll go with about -2% [13.87]... The opinion being that driving season is near, memorial day [May 29]. They had a pipeline blow in Nigeria, and the US oil companies are always super super greedy... :notrust: The market needs to get oversold in order to bounce the ball. A ball without air simply won't bounce... :blink: I'm saying that the next few week(s) could be a week or two in the wood shed, and the beatings may well continue... So I'll be on the sidelines for capital preservation. If the beating(s) get interrupted, I'll consider buying low.

 

[Fivetears]

It is the season of the 4-year cycle low. Most who curb / sideline stock investing 2nd & 3rd quarters prevail and do reasonably well during the forth; JMHO.

Be careful.

 

[Birchtree]

Frankly, it was all too fast and too furious - may already be done on the downside - a healthy shakeout to purge the weak hands - happens all the time. The C fund shoots right back up to $14.47. I'm not so positive on an immediate rebound for the S fund or I fund. But money flow is beginning to shift to the high steppers. If I'm wrong, well I have more time than braun.

 

[Wheels]

Frankly, it was all too fast and too furious - may already be done on the downside - a healthy shakeout to purge the weak hands - happens all the time. The C fund shoots right back up to $14.47. I'm not so positive on an immediate rebound for the S fund or I fund.

Gee, Birch thinks the markets are going up and the C fund is going to lead the way. I didn't see that coming.

Dave
<><

 

[JOVARN]

Many of us didn't see the last two days coming either.
Lets not go tilt on each other as that's not productive

 

[TiCKed]

Saturday Morning poll recap:

Kind of what I expected so far.
- 8 votes for being UP by next Friday
- 8 votes for being DOWN by next Friday
- Nobody thinks it will be unchanged

We don't agree on much...except that next week may be interesting!

(Believe the poll ends Tuesday evening, so the poll may skew with early performance next week).

 

[Birchtree]

Recently we had a new all time close on the NYA with both the NYAD line and NYUD volume confirming the move. The commercials are net long bonds right now at the highest level in history. What does it all mean - this correction is essentially finished. The large caps are attracting attention - stay tuned.

 

[robo]

Frankly, it was all too fast and too furious - may already be done on the downside - a healthy shakeout to purge the weak hands - happens all the time. The C fund shoots right back up to $14.47. I'm not so positive on an immediate rebound for the S fund or I fund. But money flow is beginning to shift to the high steppers. If I'm wrong, well I have more time than braun.

Birchtree,

Henry went 100% short on May 9th. I did join him for a short term play. Next week will decide if I closed my postion to soon. He is still 100% short.

You could be correct on your comments. Because yesterday, the drop was so fast and deep on the NASDAQ 100, that it hit a 4 Sigma Standard Deviation.

What's a standard deviation and what does 4 sigma mean anyway?

Standard Deviation is a measure of the variability of a data set about the population mean. The standard deviation is the root mean square of the deviation of the data points from the mean value. I'm sure many on the board understand this better than I do, but the recommendation is the reason; I'm posting it on this thread. This TA is still recommending cash for now.

Bottom line:
Don't short the NASDAQ. WHY?
Because yesterday, the drop was so fast and deep on the NASDAQ 100, that it hit a 4 Sigma Standard Deviation.

Since 2004, there were 6 times that the NASDAQ 100 hit a 4 Sigma. Each time, the NASDAQ went UP afterwards, or consolidated and then went up.

This is not my opinion, but that of a Tech based on analytical data. I don't base my investment decisions just on TA's but they are fun to read.


However, as you pointed out Birchtree you have more time than braun. We could get some more selling than a bounce early next week, but what happens after that only Mr. Market can know. Will the Mystical Plunge Protection Team show up next week? I think they might be rolling the M3 presses as we speak! How much more will they print. I should have bought more gold!!! Oh well!!!

Good trading / investing for those that are long next week. I took a short term long postion on Friday and closed out all shorts.

Since we are having some fun and predicting I'll list the TA's I follow. After all, 50% of us will be correct. So I predict that Mr Market will go up and down next week I'm not sure of the order. Currently long some in the I Fund and S Fund. I'm still looking for a longer term trend to go 100% long. I think it will be a long summer for Trend Traders. WHAT TREND IS THE POINT!

1 TA 100% short the Dow
1 Shorting Russell 2000 and some International ETF's
3 100% cash
3 60% to 100% long ETF's
1 25% long

The two links below are not included in the above TA's.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5157.htm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-5160.htm

Keep up the excellent post both Bulls and Bears; we all enjoy your comments.

Just try not to take it personal. Go Bulls!!! Go Bears!!!

 

[tsptalk]

FYI, The S&P 500 had its worst week since early October, at the same time the TSP Talk Sentiment Survey had the highest bullish percentage (61%) since December.

The following 2 weeks in October were both down - each less than 1%.

 

[Wizard]

FYI, The S&P 500 had its worst week since early October, at the same time the TSP Talk Sentiment Survey had the highest bullish percentage (61%) since December.

. Getting all excited about a weak job number? Sometimes bad news = bad news.

 

[Fivetears]

Office Space. The best.
I need my Red Swingline Stabbler.
R i g h t . xxx Y e a h.
W e ' r e xxx g o n n a xxx need you to predict xxx n e x t xxx w e e k s xxx M a r k e t s ! :notrust:
Love the Wizard humor.

 

[Dave M]

Henry

Robo wrote <<Henry went 100% short on May 9th.>>

Henry has good instincts. My account peaked with the May 9th close. By the time I reacted four trading-days later on May 15th I had given back all my gains since about the 1st of the month.

So tell us more about this Great Sage.

Dave

 

[robo]

Re: Henry

Robo wrote <<Henry went 100% short on May 9th.>>

Henry has good instincts. My account peaked with the May 9th close. By the time I reacted four trading-days later on May 15th I had given back all my gains since about the 1st of the month. So tell us more about this Great Sage.

Dave

Dave,

Henry is a paid service so I can't post his articles. However, he does post on occasion at Safe Haven. The link below is his latest article. He took some profits and is now 75% short the DOW. I went short with him at a 100%, but flipped back long to soon and lost my butt. I should have stayed short would have made a bundle.

Also, he is a longer term player and started shorting the DOW around 10800. We could be heading back!!! He was very early, but did get it right.


http://www.safehaven.com/article-5184.htm

 

[nnuut]

S&P Bottom 1168.42, just a guess.:notrust: Well, if that's my guess it means it will go up to 1356.89, or so.

 

[TiCKed]

Thanks for bringing this to the top....I had forgotten about it. (In fact, I've been trying to forget I have any money at all in the stock market. )

Barring a major change in direction, looks like we aren't very good at predicting the future as a group! Most popular answer with 10 respondants is +1%, (where I voted), and only 7 picked the much more likely choices of -2%, and worse than -2%....

I'm going back to forgetting again......

 

[Fivetears]

So, TiCKed... will we ever get a vote tally on who picked what, after the poll closes? It would be nice to see which folks had / have the best "feel" for our rapidly changing S&P market condition.

 

[TiCKed]

I haven't a clue who voted for what.....Don't think I (or anyone?) has that information.

Feel free to claim one of the correct votes. I can't prove you wrong.