PnF: RISK OFF

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Across the PnF Market Board, AGG, the Transports, and the NASDAQ 100 are on a sell.


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AGG

• On 2 March, we triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown
• On 6 March, we triggered a Descending Triple Bottom Breakdown (Back-to-back Double Bottom Breakdowns)
• We have a 109.54 bearish price objective and are -.15% away from reaching the target
• Price is less than 50% of the entire chart which covers roughly 4 months
• Strong area of historical support at S1 where we put in 5 bottoms
  

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SPX

• On 6 March, we triggered a High Pole Warning (prices rise above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise)
• Although this is a warning, it is not a reversal, we still have a 2245.92 bullish price objective and are 8.43% away from reaching the target
• A bearish reversal gets triggered at 2038.2 we are -1.60% from reaching this target

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W4500

• On 6 March, we triggered a High Pole Warning (prices rise above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise)
• Although this is a warning, it is not a reversal, we still have a 1172.7 bullish price objective and are 8.20% away from reaching the target
• A bearish reversal gets triggered at 1059.59 we are -2.24% from reaching this target

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Transports

• On 4 March, we triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown
• We have a 8712.74 bearish price objective and are -2.19% away from reaching the target
• Strong area of historical support at S3 where we put in 3 bottoms

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NASDAQ 100

• On 6 March, we triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown
• We have a 4320.51 bearish price objective and are -1.79% away from reaching the target
• Strong area of historical support at S3 where we put in 3 bottoms

Thus far, the damage has been minimal, yes we breached key levels, but those levels were tight & high, so the bigger picture remains intact and bullish. Playing devil's advocate, with two of our leading indexes on a short-term sell, now is a good time to think about taking some risk off. As for myself, I made this decision 2 days ago when I slid into the G-Fund, so I'm just chilling and waiting to see what happens next.

Trade safe…Jason

 

[FAAM]

:nuts: Thank you very much JTH and so many other regular TSP-Talk Bloggers who share your analyses, charts and comments on a regular basis.
I've been trying to claw back from early Jan. 2015 losses in my TSP, had moved a lot back into CSI leaving some in G &F recently. I read the blogs, esp. your & Tom's daily postings all week; saw/heard lot's of warning signs/bells & folks pulling back on Thursday morning... was leaning towards doing that this week myself - you folks sharing helped convince me to IFT COB on the up-day; saved me a few grand missing Friday's drops.
With only 3-to-6 years before retirement I'm getting more conservative with my TSP, can't stomach going to full-risk, so going 50% to 75% CSIF is a big move for me. Every little bit UP helps.
Thanks again & I wish us all successes.

 

[JTH]

Thank you for the kind comments, I'm glad your trade worked out, it will be interesting to see if we pullback further or resume the larger uptrend.

 

[Guest]

Yo, good looikn out! Gonna make it work now.