-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
PLANO Account Talk
- Thread starter PLANO
- Start date
PLANO
Well-known member
A Psalm for giving thanks.
Make a joyful noise to the LORD, all the earth!
Serve the LORD with gladness!
Come into his presence with singing!
Know that the LORD, he is God!
It is he who made us, and we are his;
we are his people, and the sheep of his pasture.
Enter his gates with thanksgiving,
and his courts with praise!
Give thanks to him; bless his name!
For the LORD is good;
his steadfast love endures forever,
and his faithfulness to all generations.
(Psalm 100)
Make a joyful noise to the LORD, all the earth!
Serve the LORD with gladness!
Come into his presence with singing!
Know that the LORD, he is God!
It is he who made us, and we are his;
we are his people, and the sheep of his pasture.
Enter his gates with thanksgiving,
and his courts with praise!
Give thanks to him; bless his name!
For the LORD is good;
his steadfast love endures forever,
and his faithfulness to all generations.
(Psalm 100)
PLANO
Well-known member
SIAP
A bear market in stocks just became more likely - MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Bad news, investors: The Dow Industrials’ 300-plus-point drop Monday markedly increases the likelihood that the bull market has neared its end — if it hasn’t already.
That’s because the stock market’s performance in the first two trading days of January has a surprisingly good record of forecasting the direction for the next 12 months.
The accompanying table reflects historical data back to 1896, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was created.
[TABLE="width: 500, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]When the Dow for the first two trading days of the year posts a [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]The Dow’s average gain over the remainder of the year[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Share of time the Dow rises for the remainder of the year[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Gain[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Loss[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Those differences are significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians typically use to determine if a pattern is genuine.
Furthermore, I found that the correlation with the rest of the year’s direction is higher when focusing on the first two trading days than on the first five days. That’s curious, because Wall Street has an indicator that focuses on the first five days (the “First Five Days of January Trading Indicator”) but not, as far as I am aware, on the first two days.
For the first two days of this year, the Dow dropped 1.8%. That’s even bigger than the 1.6% decline the Dow posted over the first two days of 2008, a fateful year that would later experience the worst bear market since the 1930s.
Needless to say, the Dow’s decrease over the first two trading days of this year doesn’t guarantee that the Dow will drop from now until the end of 2015. The statistics reported here are based on averages and probabilities. Notice, for example, that — even assuming the future is like the past — the Dow’s decline so far this year still leaves a 51% probability that the market will be up by year-end.
Last year, in fact, the Dow dropped 0.6% over the first two trading days, but nonetheless produced a modest gain from then until the end of 2014 of 8.2%.
Still, 2014 was an exception. Perhaps that’s why the market was unable to mount any serious rally at the end of Monday’s session.
A bear market in stocks just became more likely - MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Bad news, investors: The Dow Industrials’ 300-plus-point drop Monday markedly increases the likelihood that the bull market has neared its end — if it hasn’t already.
That’s because the stock market’s performance in the first two trading days of January has a surprisingly good record of forecasting the direction for the next 12 months.
The accompanying table reflects historical data back to 1896, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was created.
[TABLE="width: 500, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]When the Dow for the first two trading days of the year posts a [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]The Dow’s average gain over the remainder of the year[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Share of time the Dow rises for the remainder of the year[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Gain[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Loss[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Those differences are significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians typically use to determine if a pattern is genuine.
Furthermore, I found that the correlation with the rest of the year’s direction is higher when focusing on the first two trading days than on the first five days. That’s curious, because Wall Street has an indicator that focuses on the first five days (the “First Five Days of January Trading Indicator”) but not, as far as I am aware, on the first two days.
For the first two days of this year, the Dow dropped 1.8%. That’s even bigger than the 1.6% decline the Dow posted over the first two days of 2008, a fateful year that would later experience the worst bear market since the 1930s.
Needless to say, the Dow’s decrease over the first two trading days of this year doesn’t guarantee that the Dow will drop from now until the end of 2015. The statistics reported here are based on averages and probabilities. Notice, for example, that — even assuming the future is like the past — the Dow’s decline so far this year still leaves a 51% probability that the market will be up by year-end.
Last year, in fact, the Dow dropped 0.6% over the first two trading days, but nonetheless produced a modest gain from then until the end of 2014 of 8.2%.
Still, 2014 was an exception. Perhaps that’s why the market was unable to mount any serious rally at the end of Monday’s session.
PLANO
Well-known member
With the recent changes made to TSP withdrawals for some federal employees, the FERSGUIDE has been updated once again to incorporate these changes. Dan Jamison (retired FBI) is very well known for his FERSGUIDE and if you do not subscribe, I highly recommend that you do. He has a LEO version and a non-LEO version to cover everyone's retirement. A wealth of practical information all in one place. Here's the email I received today:
MID-YEAR UPDATE AVAILABLE
Hi Folks!
Just a quick email to let everyone know that the FERSGUIDE Mid-Year updated versions are now up on the "FERSGUIDE PDFS" page of the website and they are labeled as v9.1 and are the only versions on the site. I greatly expanded the Agent version as I had to rewrite the entire TSP section as a result of the passage of H.R. 2146. The guide is 5 pages longer than the 2015 verison. The Regular FERS version also gained a few pages, with the addition of a FEGLI page, additional examples and few typo corrections. The FERSGUIDE will be next update on December 1, 2015 as the 2016 version.
Have a safe and fun Fourth of July,
Dan
J. Daniel Jamison, C.P.A.
11357 Nuckols Road, #134
Glen Allen, VA 23059
www.fersguide.com
dan@fersguide.com
804-364-7175
MID-YEAR UPDATE AVAILABLE
Hi Folks!
Just a quick email to let everyone know that the FERSGUIDE Mid-Year updated versions are now up on the "FERSGUIDE PDFS" page of the website and they are labeled as v9.1 and are the only versions on the site. I greatly expanded the Agent version as I had to rewrite the entire TSP section as a result of the passage of H.R. 2146. The guide is 5 pages longer than the 2015 verison. The Regular FERS version also gained a few pages, with the addition of a FEGLI page, additional examples and few typo corrections. The FERSGUIDE will be next update on December 1, 2015 as the 2016 version.
Have a safe and fun Fourth of July,
Dan
J. Daniel Jamison, C.P.A.
11357 Nuckols Road, #134
Glen Allen, VA 23059
www.fersguide.com
dan@fersguide.com
804-364-7175
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
i guessit doesn't matter much...I read it twice and laughed!!! ButI do like the revised version too!!! :arms::lmao:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
So are you saying we need to raise taxes and eliminate write-offs?
The tough part on that is...on who do you do that to?
There is a misconception that just lower income groups don't pay taxes but there are many in upper income brackets as well, who own rentals, writeoff stock losses, who pay no federal income tax.
I knew a guy who between his gov't pension and contracting job made a decent salary...probably near 100,000. But he had rentals, he had some spousal support, he had enough writeoffs to pay no federal tax.
He actually bragged (as he made more than me) that his goal every spring was to come up with ways to pay no income tax. And he definitely did not support the "current administration"...he drank his tea all day long.
Curious what you think the solution is?
Last edited:
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
Stock losses can only write off 3000 per year. Hardly a way to get down to no federal income tax. Either is deducting mortgage interest paid, as that isn't money you got to keep as profits.
Contracting is a whole different story. They play games where a portion of their salary isn't taxable because its consider per diem. I was offered a job where 50% of the "pay" was going to be "tax free" because of this.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
By itself no...but combined with other write-offs (rental properties, children/dependents...and a slew of others that give accountants a wet dream) it is actually not that hard for someone in the 50K to 100K/yr salary to essentially pay little to no income tax.
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
children surely cost more than what you save on your taxes. And again, dependents are an expense.
So lets look at rental properties. what tax write-offs are there that are above their actual expense?
Its one thing to pay no income tax for 1 year. Its another to do it every year.
Similar threads
