Phillyfed's Account Talk

[phillyfed]

I agree, the fear is not there because we have been conditioned to believe the government will fix everything. When ever something bad happens who comes to the rescue? Uncle Sam.

Americans have become to complacent and dependent on government. They are not fearful because our government has not let anyone fall on their face really hard since the Depression.

Good point to consider.

 

[Guest2]

I for one, am just salivating at the mouth waiting for my next stimulus check. lol

Sure beats Government Cheese, doesn't it.

 

[phillyfed]

Stuck on that 850 number on the S&P again...... As i've posted before, 850-1000 is our trading range. We'll we are stuck on it now. We bounced on Thurs. in the last couple of trading hours but that appeared to be a Bull trap, along with some short covering, as confirmed by Friday and Todays trading that gave it all back, right on the nose to 850. The number we started off with heading into Thursday.

The Bias I have to believe is downward. Next pause will be our 2003 lows of 800 on the S&P (???) I guess all the negative news wasnt priced in. How can it be? Everyday it gets worse & worse.

When I study the chart off the 2003 S&P lows, I see no aggressive downward spike with the magnitude like we just went through the past 2 months on the S&P. I see nothing on the chart to compare this to EXCEPT the collapse of Nasdaq 5000.... That had 3 or 4 downward moves similar to this before it bottomed. I can't imagine the broad stock market index doing what the Tech heavy Nasdaq did, but then you ask yourself, COULD YOU EVER IMAGINE THE SAFETY OF THE BANK SECTOR, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INSURANCE AND HOUSING LOSING 50-80% accross the board? THEN THROW IN ENTIRE U.S. CAR MANUFACURERS SET TO GO UNDER???

THE CONCLUSION I COME TO IS ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE AND WE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THAT......WHATS CRAZY IS; I DONT SEE THE FEAR THIS TIME AROUND AS WE SUPPOSEDLY BOTTOM.

I think the fear factor is in play now :suspicious:

Saw an excellent analysis of past Bear markets on CNBC. I forget the guys name but in the past 6 Bear markets from the 1960's until present, the indicator to watch which tells us the recession is near an end is HOUSING STARTS. When we see an uptick in housing starts, this thing will finally be over. This has been proven to be 100% correct in all past recessions. He also used the past Data to put the start date on the current recession. The start was November of 2007......Makes perfect sense.

Looking at that S&P chart from the past 15 years, IMO we will see the 6,000's on the DOW, BEFORE THE NEW YEAR which sounded crazy just a few weeks ago but it might only be a few trading days away, with the way we are trading. As I commented a few days ago, The violant downward spike on the S&P resembles the Nasdaq crash. There is nothing else in the S&P charts to go off of.

The only way I'll get out of the G fund again this year is if we do go down another 1,000 pts or so. Then I'm in it for good as I'll DCA in. I'm not going to press my luck any further looking to squeeze out another pt. or two. I'm just over 10% in the green in my TSP for the year, thanks to a few timely trades. I'll hang my hat on that and count my blessings. But thats only the TSP.....I am down 20+ in everything else, even being largely in cash, I made some bad bets.

DON'T FORGET......FOLLOW THE HOUSING STARTS DATA

 

[fabijo]

DON'T FORGET......FOLLOW THE HOUSING STARTS DATA

Good one. A definite piece of advice to keep.

 

[phillyfed]

I think the fear factor is in play now :suspicious:

Saw an excellent analysis of past Bear markets on CNBC. I forget the guys name but in the past 6 Bear markets from the 1960's until present, the indicator to watch which tells us the recession is near an end is HOUSING STARTS. When we see an uptick in housing starts, this thing will finally be over. This has been proven to be 100% correct in all past recessions. He also used the past Data to put the start date on the current recession. The start was November of 2007......Makes perfect sense.

Looking at that S&P chart from the past 15 years, IMO we will see the 6,000's on the DOW, BEFORE THE NEW YEAR which sounded crazy just a few weeks ago but it might only be a few trading days away, with the way we are trading. As I commented a few days ago, The violant downward spike on the S&P resembles the Nasdaq crash. There is nothing else in the S&P charts to go off of.

The only way I'll get out of the G fund again this year is if we do go down another 1,000 pts or so. Then I'm in it for good as I'll DCA in. I'm not going to press my luck any further looking to squeeze out another pt. or two. I'm just over 10% in the green in my TSP for the year, thanks to a few timely trades. I'll hang my hat on that and count my blessings. But thats only the TSP.....I am down 20+ in everything else, even being largely in cash, I made some bad bets.

DON'T FORGET......FOLLOW THE HOUSING STARTS DATA

Alright....Its becoming blatantly obvious that we will trade in the 6,000's on the DOW by years end.....However, It doesnt mean its not a good time to start to DCA in. Thanks to the
fine TSP board we cant do that in our TSP with much effectiveness.
The left side of this vicious V we are in is going to bounce up a bit and offer a couple of short term buying opportunties that you can buy and sell-off into. Tomorrow, I believe will be one of those days.

I believe tomorrow we get a Stockpickers rally and a bit of short covering. I think we will actually get a bounce up to the old lows on the dow in the 7700-7800 for a day or two but dont get too excited, we are still in a downward spiral. If I did an IFT and got in at todays close, thanks to the huge sell-offs the past few days, I'd be awfully confident at my chances of a gain tomorrow.

 

[phillyfed]

I heard a rumor that we can rebalance our TSP funds and round it up to the next % pt and it doesn't count as an IFT. For example, If your C fund has 2.1% in it, you can round it up to 3%. Is this true? if so, hypothetically you could allocate into every fund that has equities. The C, I, S and all the L funds. So its possible that you could move upwards of 7-8% every other day? If true, we can DCA in somewhat.

True or BS?

Thanks

 

[poolman]

I heard a rumor that we can rebalance our TSP funds and round it up to the next % pt and it doesn't count as an IFT. For example, If your C fund has 2.1% in it, you can round it up to 3%. Is this true? if so, hypothetically you could allocate into every fund that has equities. The C, I, S and all the L funds. So its possible that you could move upwards of 7-8% every other day? If true, we can DCA in somewhat.

True or BS?

Thanks

Squalebear should chime in soon. Yes he has a nice method to DCA into the market.

I may be using his method next week for the week until we get our 2 new IFT's Dec 1.

 

[nasa1974]

I heard a rumor that we can rebalance our TSP funds and round it up to the next % pt and it doesn't count as an IFT. For example, If your C fund has 2.1% in it, you can round it up to 3%. Is this true? if so, hypothetically you could allocate into every fund that has equities. The C, I, S and all the L funds. So its possible that you could move upwards of 7-8% every other day? If true, we can DCA in somewhat.

True or BS?

Thanks

TRUE. But you are taking shares out of your G fund to balance the other funds. I do not remember if you can move say out of the F and balance the other funds. I think I tried it way back in May. I will have to go look. SB will correct me if I am wrong.

 

[nasa1974]

Nice avitar.

 

[ATCJeff]

Yea, I like the bat.

 

[KevinD]

I had to go find a larger version. You know...with my bad eyes and all.

 

[ATCJeff]

I had to go find a larger version. You know...with my bad eyes and all.

See, a very nice bat indeed. Looks like a Louisville Slugger. Though it does look bigger than a 34.

 

[mick504]

It seems hard to believe that the Govt will risk letting the Automakers go down the tube...even subcontractors will go under! I think they will make them conform a bit and then loan them some more money..espec. since the Dems are basically running things. I made a move from G to C @900 now it's 800. Not sure wether to wait til hitting 1000 and move back to G. JL

 

[Frixxxx]

I had to go find a larger version. You know...with my bad eyes and all.

I really can't believe that's a wedding ring with NO diamond in it!

 

[350zCommTech]

I really can't believe that's a wedding ring with NO diamond in it!

I can't stop looking at her jersey.

 

[Frixxxx]

I can't stop looking at her jersey.

Thanks for pointing that out, I was having a hard time looking past the Louisville Slugger in her hand...

Man 350, you sure know how to point out the things I miss...What would I do without you?:laugh:

 

[phillyfed]

Yea, I like the bat.

Me too. Its a classic. Perfect balance and symmetry. A large barrel with a great sweet spot to hit the balls with. It looks between a size 34-36 but it appears to be heavier than the typical 32 oz'er. Someone would have to put the wood in between the 2 L's on her "shirt" so we can get a better idea of the Barrel size to see if its a regulation D size.

 

[phillyfed]

TRUE. But you are taking shares out of your G fund to balance the other funds. I do not remember if you can move say out of the F and balance the other funds. I think I tried it way back in May. I will have to go look. SB will correct me if I am wrong.

So long as I dont get wrongly dinged with a precious IFT......This sounds like a great tool.

 

[kar_crazy]

I had to go find a larger version. You know...with my bad eyes and all.

good zookie dookie (mercy)

 

[nnuut]

Baseball, what a game!!!