Phillyfed's Account Talk

[phillyfed]

They can hammer it another 700 points for all I care. I've got a buying list that's longer than my arm and oh boy the money will be working extra hard. I've just been through so many of these foolish things in the past and I'm reminded that the bull wants to take as few people as possible on the upside and will do everything to make sure you don't ride. When no one wants to be in the market we are close to the bottom - anxiety rules and interest rates are being reduced while stocks continue to pay nice dividends and can be increased.

Good luck Birchtree. I sincerely hope your conviction pays off in the end. I knew we were way oversold and you were due to stick your size 13 Boot up a shorts arse. Congrats on your day. Enjoy counting todays catch. Hope its a 6 figure (profits) day for you. I might be close to 5 figures in all my accounts. Doubt it thou. I was only long about 38% going into today. But I picked the short term bottom to put in that 38%

I would advise you to take some profits here or in the coming days if this market keeps taking off. Remember, the markets have been following the Bond markets and they are closed today. So is this rally gonna be sustainable?

I see your political endorsement and respect that. McCain is a good man. Mrs. Palin scares the crap out of me thou. As an Independant, I wish he would have chosen differently. It would have made it an easy choice. Now im thinking of voting for the other guy.

 

[Birchtree]

Perhaps tomorrow we will squeeze the jelly donut.

 

[phillyfed]

Getting close to a short term bottom again. Heres my one trade this month

Time to make money again. My TSP allocation Goes from 100% G to 100% C at todays close.

Looking for a 2-5% return in this trade. I'll be up over 10% for the year in gains if this works out.

Remember, History tells us it takes about three months for a bear market to bottom out and continually retest its lows. I will trade off of that in the meantime before I go long. Looks like sometime in Jan. 09 we start out new Bull cycle. Probably 6-9 months before the economy starts to recover.

This timeframe comes from the last 4-5 severe Bear markets we have been in. They avg. a 37% drop from peak to trough and a 25% recovery within a year after the trough

 

[phillyfed]

Ignore what the futures are doing.......I see a Bear trap being setup tomorrow at the open with mass short covering.....Just my humble opinion. Its all doom and gloom being played IN THIS GAME. THATS ALL IT IS. A GAME........Greed will overcome Fear tomorrow. They'll start to selloff tomorrow morning or Friday then all the pundits will come in and say they think the market is way oversold.

People want GS, AAPL, GOOG, JNJ, PG, GE, T, VZ, CSCO, MSFT and even INTC at these levels. Mutual fund redemptions for the year end are already priced in. They will have more then enough cash. What are the whales going to put their money into? A 250k FDIC insured account? NAH.... 5-8% up day by Friday..........BOOK IT!

It was a nice run buying some QID at $63 thou.....Cashed in the profits today.

BUY THE FEAR!!

 

[phillyfed]

The C fund is at $9.80! :nuts:

 

[phillyfed]

Earlier I went long some tech:

GOOG, AKAM, FSYS, TAN, INTC, AAPL, ARNA......All on QID profits the past 2 weeks.

I love me some QID....Turns the small investor into a player without having to go on margin

Bought some OIL as well

 

[phillyfed]

Just an anecdotal story on Real Estate, In the Philly Burbs & South Jersey area.... Houses seem to be selling rather quickly in my area in Moorestown NJ and nearby Delran, Mount Laurel and Cherry Hill. The multi-million dollar properties are having somewhat of a tough time but housing in my immediate area that are selling between 300-600k are moving rather quickly within the past few months. My relatives that live in the Philly Burbs on the PA side are saying they are seeing the same.

Housing seems to be down about 20% from its peak in my area.

Anybody else seeing some positives in Real Estate or is it as negative as reported?

 

[Birchtree]

I would elaborate that the economy is stronger going into what likely will be called the 2008-2009 recession than it was on the cusp of the last brutal recession in the early 1980s.

 

[XL-entLady]

Housing seems to be down about 20% from its peak in my area.

Anybody else seeing some positives in Real Estate or is it as negative as reported?

Starting to see the same thing in Utah. Prices down 20% from the peak but homes starting to move again. Interesting that the 20% price reduction is the same in such a different physical location in the nation.

Lady

 

[phillyfed]

I would elaborate that the economy is stronger going into what likely will be called the 2008-2009 recession than it was on the cusp of the last brutal recession in the early 1980s.

One things for sure, you can throw out those antiquated P/E's they try to compare the past bear markets to the modern market with.

Nearly everybody invests in equities now....As opposed to the markets decades ago due to 401k contributions. Just look at the quantity of Mutual funds and ETF's as compared to what was available back then. Not to mention we dont have to drive to our Broker and make a trade. Only about 25% of households invested in equities back then......Now its about 75%.....Therefore a P/E of 8 in the early 80's is equal to about a 12 currently. I believe people who are predicting a P/E in the S&P of past bottoms are delusional. We are in a different time.

 

[phillyfed]

Starting to see the same thing in Utah. Prices down 20% from the peak but homes starting to move again. Interesting that the 20% price reduction is the same in such a different physical location in the nation.

Lady

Good news

I believe New Jersey (in the Philly burbs), just like Utah, never got ahead of itself like other areas of the country did.

 

[phillyfed]

Earlier I went long some tech:

GOOG, AKAM, FSYS, TAN, INTC, AAPL, ARNA......All on QID profits the past 2 weeks.

I love me some QID....Turns the small investor into a player without having to go on margin

Bought some OIL as well

I made a collective 25% buying QID the past couple of weeks. Sold that yesterday as stated yesterday. Parlayed those gains into the 7 stocks above when they were beaten up early this morning. Made a 9% profit collectively. Im still down a little in the Ameritrade account YTD buying bank stocks but these past few weeks helped a ton.

As for my TSP..... I went long yesterday 100% from G to C........Made about 6.5% (goal surpassed). I have bought the bottom and banked the bounce the past three months on my trades (ITS ALL DOCUMENTED IN THIS THREAD. I've listed every trade. Atleast for the 2nd half of the year I think.....Ive been one lucky S.O.B.). I am now up between 13-15% for the year on our limited trading. I should have tracked it but I was too lazy.

My Morgan Stanley account's and my wife's Aetna account are down about 15-25% as I dont touch them much. They mostly consist of the Fidelity Contrafund and Berkshire Hathaway B shares.

SO, WHAT CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY'S LOSSES?........NOTHING!! LIKE I SAID YESTERDAY, I'M GONNA PLAY THE GAME AND BANK IT!! :suspicious:

 

[phillyfed]

Ignore what the futures are doing.......I see a Bear trap being setup tomorrow at the open with mass short covering.....Just my humble opinion. Its all doom and gloom being played IN THIS GAME. THATS ALL IT IS. A GAME........Greed will overcome Fear tomorrow. They'll start to selloff tomorrow morning or Friday then all the pundits will come in and say they think the market is way oversold.

People want GS, AAPL, GOOG, JNJ, PG, GE, T, VZ, CSCO, MSFT and even INTC at these levels. Mutual fund redemptions for the year end are already priced in. They will have more then enough cash. What are the whales going to put their money into? A 250k FDIC insured account? NAH.... 5-8% up day by Friday..........BOOK IT!

It was a nice run buying some QID at $63 thou.....Cashed in the profits today.

BUY THE FEAR!!

Posted yesterday....Now if we can only keep todays gains??

 

[akpackfan]

Congratulations, great read on the market! Question, do you typically post your moves in your TSP account talk thread here by the cutoff time so those of us who may want to follow your lead have a chance to check it out and make a decision? Thanks again.

 

[phillyfed]

Congratulations, great read on the market! Question, do you typically post your moves in your TSP account talk thread here by the cutoff time so those of us who may want to follow your lead have a chance to check it out and make a decision? Thanks again.

Thanks.... Looking back at my posts, I usually make my buy & sell calls once a month between 11am- 1:30pm and I only hold for on avg. 3-5 days I'd say, without getting too greedy. Its been crazy lately thou. We have been getting yearly gains in one or two trading sessions a month, which far exceeds my trade goals. Each time I trade, I'm content on a 1% gain and then playing the safety of the G fund for the rest of the month until I believe we are out of this bear market. Studying the past Bear markets, this should last for about 3-4 months so I see a trading range of 850-1000 on the S&P. That is what I have been working off of the past couple months and it has worked well both on the up and down side...... I work the swing shift, so I'm home in the daytime usually with my young kids, so I cant always get on here in time after I make my IFT, plus I dont sense that I have a cult following here that trades off of my actions. Which is fine by me. The money is real and I dont need the added pressure.

 

[Show-me]

Nice job! I'm always a day late.

 

[phillyfed]

Nice job! I'm always a day late.

I bought me some UYG at $27 a few months back in my Ameritrade account. Also bought Wachovia at $36..... I got stopped out automatically at a 20% loss. This can drive you crazy if you let it. :suspicious:

 

[phillyfed]

Thanks.... Looking back at my posts, I usually make my buy & sell calls once a month between 11am- 1:30pm and I only hold for on avg. 3-5 days I'd say, without getting too greedy. Its been crazy lately thou. We have been getting yearly gains in one or two trading sessions a month, which far exceeds my trade goals. Each time I trade, I'm content on a 1% gain and then playing the safety of the G fund for the rest of the month until I believe we are out of this bear market. Studying the past Bear markets, this should last for about 3-4 months so I see a trading range of 850-1000 on the S&P. That is what I have been working off of the past couple months and it has worked well both on the up and down side...... I work the swing shift, so I'm home in the daytime usually with my young kids, so I cant always get on here in time after I make my IFT, plus I dont sense that I have a cult following here that trades off of my actions. Which is fine by me. The money is real and I dont need the added pressure.

Stuck on that 850 number on the S&P again...... As i've posted before, 850-1000 is our trading range. We'll we are stuck on it now. We bounced on Thurs. in the last couple of trading hours but that appeared to be a Bull trap, along with some short covering, as confirmed by Friday and Todays trading that gave it all back, right on the nose to 850. The number we started off with heading into Thursday.

The Bias I have to believe is downward. Next pause will be our 2003 lows of 800 on the S&P (???) I guess all the negative news wasnt priced in. How can it be? Everyday it gets worse & worse.

When I study the chart off the 2003 S&P lows, I see no aggressive downward spike with the magnitude like we just went through the past 2 months on the S&P. I see nothing on the chart to compare this to EXCEPT the collapse of Nasdaq 5000.... That had 3 or 4 downward moves similar to this before it bottomed. I can't imagine the broad stock market index doing what the Tech heavy Nasdaq did, but then you ask yourself, COULD YOU EVER IMAGINE THE SAFETY OF THE BANK SECTOR, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INSURANCE AND HOUSING LOSING 50-80% accross the board? THEN THROW IN ENTIRE U.S. CAR MANUFACURERS SET TO GO UNDER???

THE CONCLUSION I COME TO IS ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE AND WE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THAT......WHATS CRAZY IS; I DONT SEE THE FEAR THIS TIME AROUND AS WE SUPPOSEDLY BOTTOM.

 

[Show-me]

When I study the chart off the 2003 S&P lows, I see no aggressive downward spike with the magnitude like we just went through the past 2 months on the S&P. I see nothing on the chart to compare this to EXCEPT the collapse of Nasdaq 5000.... That had 3 or 4 downward moves similar to this before it bottomed. I can't imagine the broad stock market index doing what the Tech heavy Nasdaq did, but then you ask yourself, COULD YOU EVER IMAGINE THE SAFETY OF THE BANK SECTOR, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INSURANCE AND HOUSING LOSING 50-80% accross the board? THEN THROW IN ENTIRE U.S. CAR MANUFACURERS SET TO GO UNDER???

THE CONCLUSION I COME TO IS ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE AND WE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THAT......WHATS CRAZY IS; I DONT SEE THE FEAR THIS TIME AROUND AS WE SUPPOSEDLY BOTTOM.

I agree, the fear is not there because we have been conditioned to believe the government will fix everything. When ever something bad happens who comes to the rescue? Uncle Sam.

Americans have become to complacent and dependent on government. They are not fearful because our government has not let anyone fall on their face really hard since the Depression.

 

[Show-me]

I for one, am just salivating at the mouth waiting for my next stimulus check. lol