Phillyfed's Account Talk

[phillyfed]

Re: 12%ayear's Account Talk

A $2 Trillion cut in lending may be coming our way, according to Goldman Sachs (GS).

"The slump in global credit markets may force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion and trigger a "substantial recession" in the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Goldman's forecast reduction in lending is equivalent to 7% of total U.S. household, corporate and government debt, hurting an economy already beset by the slowing housing market. Wells Fargo & Co. Chief Executive Officer John Stumpf said yesterday that the property market is the worst since the Great Depression."
link... http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/14917/from/yahoo


What worries me is that Goldman Sachs was the only Brokerage firm that got the subprime mess correct. They hedged against it. :worried:

Best to stay nimble here.


​

 

[nnuut]

Discuss your Allocations and tactics here!

 

[phillyfed]

Good day to have some cash in play on the sidelines.

Upped the TSP another 20% to 60% stocks. Bought a couple more stocks. Small Caps are getting crushed. Large Caps will lead us out IMO. So will US Equities.

I like the S&P EVEN MORE AROUND 1400.

Look for the Turkey Rally Wed.-Fri. You might want to be 100% in stocks by then if only for the short term. Another strong sell-off tomorrow will be a perfect lead-in.

 

[presskh]

Good day to have some cash in play on the sidelines.

Upped the TSP another 20% to 60% stocks. Bought a couple more stocks. Small Caps are getting crushed. Large Caps will lead us out IMO. So will US Equities.

I like the S&P EVEN MORE AROUND 1400.

Look for the Turkey Rally Wed.-Fri. You might want to be 100% in stocks by then if only for the short term. Another strong sell-off tomorrow will be a perfect lead-in.

Agree with you, Phillyfed. I transferred from 100% G fund to 50% stocks/50% G fund for tomorrow.

 

[phillyfed]

Was it me or was anybody else sick to their stomach watching CNBC essentially pimp Dubai, UAE today?

We had some "financial gurus" from the Royal Kingdoms providing us all with their brilliant market insights. Never mind these fools made their riches off of the sand rich in black gold beneath them. Of course they had to be showed how to pump it and refine it by Western countries. Particularly, the USofA. Now they flaunt their decadence, which is held by few and brainwash the masses that the US is "the great Satin".

Now these people run a virtual Utopia state. Im quite certain they have no trouble with $100 Oil. They build the largest buildings in the world. They plan to build a theme park that will make Disney look like Six Flaggs, all on the backs of slave labor wages.

I foresee $4 gasoline next summer, as the "summer driving season" approaches. (Without a war with Iran of course).

I traded in my 2006 AWD Acura MDX this past weekend. A gas sucking pig at 15 mpg, soft-footing it. I "downgraded" to a 2007 Nissan Altima Hybrid that gets 42 CITY 38 HWY and 700-800 miles between fills. You get less money in your pocket from me.

Hopefully my Hybrid will be obsolete in another 10 years as we develop a fuel alternative. I'd love to see these people drink their Oil. Its too bad BushCo. and all the lobbyists will do everything in their power to not allow this to happen.

 

[Show-me]

Yep!!! Spot on, phillyfed.

 

[fedgolfer]

for a second there it sounded like you were talking about our country

 

[phillyfed]

Re: 12%ayear's Account Talk

A $2 Trillion cut in lending may be coming our way, according to Goldman Sachs (GS).

"The slump in global credit markets may force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion and trigger a "substantial recession" in the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ​

Goldman's forecast reduction in lending is equivalent to 7% of total U.S. household, corporate and government debt, hurting an economy already beset by the slowing housing market. Wells Fargo & Co. Chief Executive Officer John Stumpf said yesterday that the property market is the worst since the Great Depression."​

link... http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/14917/from/yahoo​

What worries me is that Goldman Sachs was the only Brokerage firm that got the subprime mess correct. They hedged against it. :worried:​

Best to stay nimble here.​

I posted this in another thread and was informed that Minyanville was a known bear site.

Of course i know this but the quotes were from Goldman Sachs (Wall streets best firm IMO) and Wells Fargo, a pretty large lending resource. Minyanville just reported what Goldman and WellsFargo put out late last week. Add that with todays housing news and another dislosure of another Billion dollar write-down and OHmyGod, we are down another 200+ pts.....Shocker!!

As well. Im in 60% as of todays close. I believe we'll hit 1400 on the S&P then bounce like crazy off those levels. If we go through that then Im out of this thing. I doubt this scenario will happen thou.

My year end projections put the S&P between 1470-1490. JMHO

 

[fedgolfer]

... that August low candle wicked down to 1370... too tough to speculate how it will play, especially w/ that ift deadline. True, when the real broad based accumulation piles in, it may bounce up several percent... but trying to call the low in this volatility in a TSP account would be more luck than skill. I can definitely see the reward in timing it in a trading account though, with also significantly less risk. Sounds like time for me to read up on conditional orders!

 

[phillyfed]

for a second there it sounded like you were talking about our country

I like to think our country became of decadence through the hard work of the middle class and the brilliance of our forefathers in creating what was once/and hopefully still is the perfect government. Somewhere along that path, we lost our way.

There was an excellent article in the Sunday Philadelphia Inquirer comparing the current US Empire to that of the Roman empire collapse. It contrasted how the Roman empire fell from within to our Countries, system of contracting out gov't work and lobbyist power in Gov't. A hurtful but must read.

And heres a scary thing to throw at you.....IF Hillary gets in we have the potential of 2 families running this country from 1989-2017.......Thats 28 years of Bush/Clinton rule!!

 

[phillyfed]

Yep!!! Spot on, phillyfed.

Thank You Sir. Im glad you felt that same rage. I am not alone

 

[phillyfed]

Futures are up but I think we are heading down for the day. Im thinking we rally the day before and after Thanksgiving day thou.

I up my 60% to 100% stocks before todays close. 1470-1490 on the S&P by years end IMO. Thats 4% upside by years end.

My account is down about 3% from its highs, taking away added contributions. Im up 11% for the year with the help of Ebb from July to Sept.

 

[phillyfed]

Yup, a bogus rally.

We are bouncing short term starting tomorrow. Stockpickers will come out. Sellers are drying up IMO.

Short term bounce, Wed & Fri......After this week, who knows?

 

[phillyfed]

Dow futures down 133. Looks ugly. The entire world is tanking. Could we go down 250 pts at the open and close up 100+ pts? :nuts:

A little capitulation and we finally bounce. If you want to catch a bottom, this is what the fear looks like that allows it.

Im buying stocks at todays open.

 

[Show-me]

Buy, buy, buy! Going to be a fun day! Good luck!

 

[phillyfed]

Buy, buy, buy! Going to be a fun day! Good luck!

65C 25I 10S

OUCH ......took this on the chin, 100%. Picked a bad day to go all in. I patiently waited this out the past couple of weeks and avoided much of the pain but got wacked today. We could just as easily be up Friday as much as we were down today. I'm hanging in for more pain or gain.

I have 23 years to go until I'll dip into this account. I'm pretty certain I didnt buy in at the top today. Someday the C fund will trade for $50 a share and this ugly month will amount to a mere blip on the chart.

Everybody, Have a Happy Holiday! Cherish the time you spend with your families and Enjoy your health. Theres nothing more valuable then that.

 

[phillyfed]

Backing out 70% at todays COB......Wheres the capitulation at?

Big money comes in Monday and sets it straight either way

 

[fedgolfer]

I wish we could IFT one hour before the close every day!!!!

Warning: I'm rambling and talking this trade through out loud:

My initial intent was to be in at 1411 or lower in s&p, but I got sucked in early... we now know that Aug close is not the trigger for big money on the Dow... 1411, 1406 or 1370 may be for the s&p. Can I stomach 1370 and being 100% C right now? Yeah, but it would hurt... locking green with 1 hour to market close doesn't sound like a bad idea. The only thing is on a weekly chart, that would be a PERFECT time to buy. Because the 5 year chart would wick down close to, if not on the bottom support line... I think you'd need a magnifying glass to see any space! But why would the big money want to make a big upswing BEFORE the next Fed rate cut announcement? They probably wouldn't, so even though monday sounds like a great time to buy on the 5 year chart... don't you think big money wants 1370 to guarantee a 50 basis point cut?

 

[FogSailing]

That was my thinking as well Philly...I'm jumping out over the weekend...even though my gut tells me that the WS Sharks are going to play GREEN on Monday...because they've been selling a lot of fear...

FS

 

[phillyfed]

I wish we could IFT one hour before the close every day!!!!

Warning: I'm rambling and talking this trade through out loud:

My initial intent was to be in at 1411 or lower in s&p, but I got sucked in early... we now know that Aug close is not the trigger for big money on the Dow... 1411, 1406 or 1370 may be for the s&p. Can I stomach 1370 and being 100% C right now? Yeah, but it would hurt... locking green with 1 hour to market close doesn't sound like a bad idea. The only thing is on a weekly chart, that would be a PERFECT time to buy. Because the 5 year chart would wick down close to, if not on the bottom support line... I think you'd need a magnifying glass to see any space! But why would the big money want to make a big upswing BEFORE the next Fed rate cut announcement? They probably wouldn't, so even though monday sounds like a great time to buy on the 5 year chart... don't you think big money wants 1370 to guarantee a 50 basis point cut?

I think we played it right with the information we had going into this week and how Tuesday- Wednesday trading reacted. There was some relatively heavy down volume Tues. & Wed. before Thurday. We got lucky with todays early close and very weak volume. We just about matched our losses and we got out. We were safely able to test the waters in case there was a bounce off 1410-1415. Still havent seen a technical sell Capitulation we need IMO.

The big money theory at 1370 is a real possibility in addition we get the G penny Monday (I think)

Good weekend all!

Ed