Peterson82's Account Talk

[peterson82]

A dollar invested on Sept 18, 2000 with perfect trades every day will pass the 30 million dollar mark today...

Equation is simple:

(1+Max(Percent difference of ALL FUNDS on 9/18/2000)) * 1 = FIRST DAY
(1+Max(Percent difference of ALL FUNDS on 9/19/2000)) * FIRST DAY = SECONDDAY
...
(1+Max(Percent difference of ALL FUNDS on ...) * Nth Day = (N+1)th Day
...
(1+Max(Percent difference of ALL FUNDS on 2/1/2010)*2340th Day = $29,755,550.84

Entirely useless, but it's something that I track for fun. And to remind myself the power of compounding and the evils of negative percentages.

Ill break it down by significant money amounts and their dates

9/18/2000: $1
3/19/2001: $2.01
3/8/2002: $10.03
6/3/2003: $100.07
10/5/2004: $1003.64
7/19/2006: $10249.94
1/28/2008: $101712.29
11/24/2008: 1 Mill
7/20/2009: 10 Mill

This is the magic of compounding when your account never goes down. When your account goes down, it is harder to make up the percent difference.

I will continue this thread, but TSP.gov no longer has data back before 2003. But this time, I will be point out dates where the one dollar investment doubles....

(I am just doing this as an excel exercise, it has no value).
06/02/2003: $1.00
10/22/2003: $2.00
03/25/2004: $4.01
09/13/2004: $8.01
03/24/2005: $16.03
09/29/2005: $32.18
03/30/2006: $64.81
09/12/2006: $128.26
03/29/2007: $256.57
09/13/2007: $513.59
01/29/2008: $1,029.34 <------Non-March date.
05/22/2008: $2,051.94
09/19/2008: $4,220.60
11/07/2008: $8,400.91
12/30/2008: $16,568.60
03/18/2009: $32,955.63
05/18/2009: $65,592.71
08/28/2009: $131,553.67
01/04/2010: $267,055.70
05/12/2010: $528,640.75
09/02/2010: $1,057,878.15
01/26/2011: $2,113,786.91
06/28/2011: $4,215,892.42
09/26/2011: $8,530,483.95
12/16/2011: $16,924,744.13
05/21/2012: $33,726,495.54
10/19/2012: $67,224,830.72
04/29/2013: $134,768,355.80
10/15/2013: $269,122,681.30
04/15/2014: $538,119,506.40
11/10/2014: $1,079,260,251
05/08/2015: $2,183,407,008
10/15/2015: $4,311,324,640

An interesting thing I noticed while writing down the dates for those numbers is a pattern that emerges. Doubling almost wants to be in harmony like a beat of a drum. Can you see the first date that doesn't continue the oscillating March/Sept/March/Sept? January 2008. As we all know, 2008 was a horrendous year... perhaps this is an indication of an outlier year?

The average time to double from 2003-2007 was 174 days. From 2008-2011 it was 103 days. From 2012-2015 it is 175 days. After 2011, the oscillation go back to twice a year.

Just wanted to share what I was thinking today...

 

[peterson82]

Hey, all.

Since December I have created and have been testing a timing model that I whipped up. Of course, I know there is a lot of doubt that a timing system can actually be successful, however, I need to see it for myself with my own take on how to time the market (Plus I am a huge Math and Excel nerd). I will be using the Autotracker to keep track of my gains/losses, and I will also update my actual TSP account as the year goes on. I will update this account talk with any updates if you all want to follow my progress (watch it fail?!)

I am hidden right now on the autotracker, but I accidently didn't make a trade into my system on December 31, so I started the year in the negative rather than the F-Fund. For now, I am in the F-fund until at least Friday of this week.

I know it's wishful thinking, but I would really like to adapt the model to stocks/ETFs to invest a little bit (5%) of money from my brokerage account. Right now, it is just such a pain to update it daily that I will need to make it more automated. Anyway, I am excited about this year! I am glad to be back thinking about the TSP and the future of my investments.

Side note, I start a new federal job on Monday the 11th. I am excited about it, but I have a feeling things will get busy. So, I will try to remember to update this site's tracker and this forum!

-peterson82

 

[Skorcher]

Past results are no guarantee of future performance. I have been trying to follow 100 yr old seasonality patterns the past four years and have been burned. Everything seems to be upside down. 2015 was the first year ending in 5 that was down in a 100 yrs. It was also one of the rare pre-election years to go down. On top of that Dec-Jan period is usually very good - but sucks this year.

 

[userque]

...(Plus I am a huge Math and Excel nerd)....

I look forward to your postings.

Just wanted to post my btw, fwiw: I too am a Math/Excel/VBA guy.

I'm not "huge," but I could lose a few pounds.

 

[peterson82]

Yeah, I am like 300lbs, but "carry it well"

I am in F-Fund at least until Wednesday!

-Dan

 

[peterson82]

I'll be in F-Fund until at least Friday.

 

[peterson82]

I'll be in F-Fund until at least Friday.

Same for this week. Staying in F-fund until at least Friday.

DC has a huge snow storm planned for this Friday/Saturday, so I plan on trudging through the snow to find any restaurant or bar open and enjoy the finer things in life (beer, chips & salsa).

 

[peterson82]

I will remain in F-Fund through Friday.

 

[peterson82]

Not picking up any changes to the plan. Still continue to be all F-Fund through most of the week.

 

[peterson82]

Finally making a move this year... switching from F-fund to S-fund.

 

[peterson82]

Going back to F-Fund.