Peterson82's Account Talk

[dannyboy]

Looks like you made a good move (fingers crossed and holding breath)

With 81 other accounts you're doing WAY better than the rest of us.

You have a GREAT ATTITUDE ! and that's the important thing. Don't worry about the position on the AT (and honestly it sounds like you're doing it just right). But if it becomes a concern usually it works for the worse in vain aggressive attempts to 'beat the Markets'.

A move to F Fund - especially in light of many thinking we're on the way up to a fairly beautiful and sustained RALLY - is very admirable. It takes a lot of courage to go against the grain - make your own calls.

Excellent Job !!

I'm there also at G-50,F-41 and C,S,I at 3%.
It used to be like when the C,S.I drops the F does well. That has not always been the case lately, but it's still better than G-100%. That's alright, returns mostly +, but when they are (-), the (-'s) can be intense. :blink:

 

[Steadygain]

I'm there also at G-50,F-41 and C,S,I at 3%.
It used to be like when the C,S.I drops the F does well.

That would be VERY RARE - Usually they go in opposite directions (a TANKING C,S,I = soaring F and vise versa).

That has not always been the case lately, but it's still better than G-100%. That's alright, returns mostly +, but when they are (-), the (-'s) can be intense. :blink:

I guess that depends on how you look at things. To me going C,S,I is the same thing as throwing your account in the Black Hole, a garbage disposal, or whatever BUT you never know and if the Markets take off then you'll come out ahead. Personally I love G Fund for it's guaranteed safety - but it has a 'WIMP STIGMA' I despise so I'm always anxious for a huge dive to act more 'manly'.

GL dannyboy !!

 

[peterson82]

Looks like you made a good move (fingers crossed and holding breath)

With 81 other accounts you're doing WAY better than the rest of us.

You have a GREAT ATTITUDE ! and that's the important thing. Don't worry about the position on the AT (and honestly it sounds like you're doing it just right). But if it becomes a concern usually it works for the worse in vain aggressive attempts to 'beat the Markets'.

A move to F Fund - especially in light of many thinking we're on the way up to a fairly beautiful and sustained RALLY - is very admirable. It takes a lot of courage to go against the grain - make your own calls.

Excellent Job !!

Indeed, I am going my own route with this... My actual returns on my real money is better than what is shown on the site because I left it in I-Fund here a few days too long.

Thanks for the encouraging words, and hopefully I'll get out of the hole I dug myself into going into the I-fund after a Santa Rally (will never do that again!)...

 

[peterson82]

100% F-Fund for the rest of February. Hopefully, I can continue going up on my birthday month!

 

[peterson82]

As I mentioned in my trade Comment box, I am going 100% G-Fund for the beginning of March. Clearly, this is a tough market to crack... so I will take some guarenteed gains.

 

[Steadygain]

To go from the very bottom of the 4th level

...........................already mid way up the 3rd is VERY GOOD


Going to G - guarantees no loss


ALSO gives you an opportunity to go in for a quick bounce and go back in to G and stay there.....

So I'd say you've making very good decisions

 

[peterson82]

I decided at the beginning of the year that I would stick to my plan throughout the year, which lead to miss out on the March gains. I am experimenting with different ideas, and all of this has been a great learning experience. I am currently working on ways to improve my market analysis so maybe I'll be able to catch something like these March gains when they come around again (which will probably be never.. One thing I have learned about Bear markets is it can be extreme in both directions). Newton said every action has an equal and opposite reaction, in a bear market the opposite reaction is just as strong, but takes time (change over time-Newton knows a bit about that too), but it is not immediate.

I need to make mistakes to learn, I can afford to because I only started in July (I don't even have matching yet!), and I have only a few thousand in there. So, to conclude, thanks everyone at TSP for being great, and resourceful. As a younger person here at TSP, I am very greatful to get feedback from the wise.

 

[Guest2]

I decided at the beginning of the year that I would stick to my plan throughout the year, which lead to miss out on the March gains. I am experimenting with different ideas, and all of this has been a great learning experience. I am currently working on ways to improve my market analysis so maybe I'll be able to catch something like these March gains when they come around again (which will probably be never.. One thing I have learned about Bear markets is it can be extreme in both directions). Newton said every action has an equal and opposite reaction, in a bear market the opposite reaction is just as strong, but takes time (change over time-Newton knows a bit about that too), but it is not immediate.

I need to make mistakes to learn, I can afford to because I only started in July (I don't even have matching yet!), and I have only a few thousand in there. So, to conclude, thanks everyone at TSP for being great, and resourceful. As a younger person here at TSP, I am very greatful to get feedback from the wise.

I find Corepuncher, Coolhand and a variety of other members who can
help you through their analysis that they post. There's alot of talent
here, but it's sometimes hard to keep up. Good Luck !

 

[peterson82]

It seems as though my investment strategy is following the philosophy of "Mo' money, mo' problems"

 

[peterson82]

I will stay in the S-Fund for the beginning of May. I am so close to being on the positive end I can taste it! A decent rally here today and I might make it! I am gunnin for the top 25 this year, which would be great considering I was last at one point this year.

 

[peterson82]

Positive! I will predict, though, that it won't last-I have a feeling the market will be down today.

 

[peterson82]

In doing my daily updating for my TSP, I noticed the difference with potential gains between 'unlimited trades' and the new rule of two per month...

Every dollar invested on Sept 18, 2000 (with unlimited trades), if you picked the funds perfectly, would be worth 14.3 Million... every dollar!

On the flip side, if you trade once at the beginning of the month, and once in the middle of the month since Sept 2000, every dollar is just worth $102 today... of course this can be maximized by a more efficient use of the two trades, but I was amazed!

This can be flipped though... you could lose your money much more quickly trading everyday!

 

[Gumby]

Every dollar invested on Sept 18, 2000 (with unlimited trades), if you picked the funds perfectly, would be worth 14.3 Million... every dollar!

Not doubting your word........but
I am from Missouri...you would have to "showme" the math on that one.

 

[peterson82]

Ill break it down by significant money amounts and their dates

9/18/2000: $1
3/19/2001: $2.01
3/8/2002: $10.03
6/3/2003: $100.07
10/5/2004: $1003.64
7/19/2006: $10249.94
1/28/2008: $101712.29
11/24/2008: 1 Mill
7/20/2009: 10 Mill

This is the magic of compounding when your account never goes down. When your account goes down, it is harder to make up the percent difference.

 

[peterson82]

S-Fund for the rest of SEPT because my model says so.. and she has nice legs

 

[peterson82]

A dollar invested on Sept 18, 2000 with perfect trades every day will pass the 30 million dollar mark today...

Equation is simple:

(1+Max(Percent difference of ALL FUNDS on 9/18/2000)) * 1 = FIRST DAY
(1+Max(Percent difference of ALL FUNDS on 9/19/2000)) * FIRST DAY = SECONDDAY
...
(1+Max(Percent difference of ALL FUNDS on ...) * Nth Day = (N+1)th Day
...
(1+Max(Percent difference of ALL FUNDS on 2/1/2010)*2340th Day = $29,755,550.84

Entirely useless, but it's something that I track for fun. And to remind myself the power of compounding and the evils of negative percentages.

 

[peterson82]

Anyone read Stephen Losey's article, "Thousands get huge raises"

I agree with the point that a promotion should not be guarenteed, but the article reads like it is costing the government money when people promote. The way laddering works is there is a position potential (say GS-12) that is funded for a GS-12 and a manager has the option to ladder it down to get young talent (or outside talent) which will pay the employee at the GS-9 (or 11). The position is funded for the higher level, but is paying less because of the lower grade. Which is effectively a savings for that first year, and the year after with a promotion to GS-11.
The other point is it makes it seem like people get two pay increases if they jump from 5 to 7, or 7 to 9, etc. This isnt the case because the GS scale is two pay schedules in one. There are the one-grade positions (secretaries, misc admin) that go from GS1-10, and then the two-grade positions (engineering, hr specialists, etc) that go from GS5-15 with pay increases at the 7,9,11. They use one GS scale for simplicity, but are different.

 

[Mapper]

I hear ya. I got hired and was on "probation" for one year at a lower pay grade than my position was advertised for. I easily qualified for the full pay grade but our agency brings in new hires on probation. So, last year I got a "HUGE" raise, right to the real salary my position was advertised at...except I was still at step 1 rather than step 2. As a result they are saving a Step increase every year on me.

 

[peterson82]

Stretching my TSPTalk legs here at the end of 2015..
After focusing on the Fed career for the last 3-4 years, I have not paid close attention to allocations in my TSP. I hope to change that in 2016!

Plan for 2016: Post here on all my fund transfers (probably won't post all of them before the actual trade). This will keep me focused on watching my TSP throughout the year. Anyway, just wanted to say hello and good luck to everyone in 2016!

Retire Eligible: July 31, 2039 ;swear

-peterson82

 

[nnuut]

It's good to see you back Peterson82, best of luck with your TSP!!
Now let's TALK!!!
Norman