P&F Chart School

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hessian said:
RPM, James isn't too likely to reply because he's very, very busy, with new website/petition -trying to save all our butts (our IFT rights). I'll try to answer your question
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Hessian:

Thank you. I have been reading this post, and have followed the P&F charts for the last few weeks. However, this type of charts does not allow you to see the past, so I was just wondering how the market responded to the various bullish/bearish goals set by the charts at each turning point.
 
RPM, Good question, however neither myself, nor I expect James has a direct answer.
You might want to make it a project (as I'd like to know too) by either try compiling correlations, or maybe try googling up some correlation results. All I know its been a system in practice since before computers and apparently has been reliable as the system to determine trend direction. Also, recently, its becoming more-and-more rediscovered by many pros! VR
 
hessian said:
RPM, Good question, however neither myself, nor I expect James has a direct answer.
You might want to make it a project (as I'd like to know too) by either try compiling correlations, or maybe try googling up some correlation results. All I know its been a system in practice since before computers and apparently has been reliable as the system to determine trend direction. Also, recently, its becoming more-and-more rediscovered by many pros! VR
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I just found out that you can set the date (up to date) for the P&F chart, so in a way you can go back in time and find out how the various price targets fare with the market. This is a tedious project, I might take it on when I have some time to spare!
 
These is a ton if support at levels around 1430, so it is dips below 1450-1460, you have a nice entry place to begin sliding in.

I'm in, and riding the bronco, so I'm just staying put. I think in a day or two, things will shake out, and we'll beign our move higher again.
 
And compare this to a conventional chart.
View attachment 2796
You see that we've stopped right now for the moment, because we're hitting that 200 day moving average for a buffer. But we still have a gap down at 1425 to 1430 to fill in.

Whether or not the gap gets filled over the next couple of days is still up in the air, but the P&F chart says the floor is above the last time we went down, so it will be better soon.
 
Re: What YOU can do to fight back - IFT limit

Ok- Sorry I have not posted recently, but I have been busy.

today we see clearly the O's which appeared on the Fed's annoucment drop, and the area below the O's before we get down to the support line.



Tom, earlier this week, talked about the gap down at 1430 range that needs to be filled in. I agree that we are likely to see lower in the days ahead, perhaps not all the way down to 1430, but close, if not exactly, the 1430 and change mark.

I would consider anywhere below 1460 to be buying territory for the next wave up. I DO think we'll have the Santa Rally soon, so the question is will we be able to catch an entry point below 1460, and perhaps the floor at 1430, before the turn back up happens.

I am in now, so I am riding it out. What you do is totally up to you. What the chart is telling me is that we have the red line broken, a nice run up, then the O's down, now it's ready to drift down slightly for a buy in point, before rebounding strongly.

We'll see how it goes.

You do what is best for you. this is not advice. this is simply observation.

Except in Nebraska.​
 
Hi James,
I'm looking more at the "S" Chart - still OK there, at least still today too ($EMW)-keeping fingers crossed.
Question:
In price/candle charts, today we got hammers formed in both C and S (& also in the I), so I'm thinking tomorrow, and afterwards, until at least newyears will start a fairly steady climb, mostly all up (w some dip-days). I recognize I'm no expert, certainly nowhere near your experience, so I'm asking - with hammers formed today, and FOMC/banks nonsense, and also now seasonality (especially after last 48 hour stuggle hopefully behind us now), I can't help but think we tomorrow see 15 to 30 points up! Thus, possibly creating new columns of Xs showing up! :o
Is filling that gap, in that single chart, that much a certainty, because that will drag down the others with it? Is there a necessity to fill that gap in that one chart, or other causes to predict a downward push? - I'm not hearing needs for filling that gap from other sources, but could see something of this scenario more in maybe Jan/Feb? :worried:
VR (as always).
PS I've been all in-riding wave, too>
 
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hessian said:
Hi James,
I'm looking more at the "S" Chart - still OK there, at least still today too ($EMW)-keeping fingers crossed.
Question:
In price/candle charts, today we got hammers formed in both C and S (& also in the I), so I'm thinking tomorrow, and afterwards, until at least newyears will start a fairly steady climb, mostly all up (w some dip-days). I recognize I'm no expert, certainly nowhere near your experience, so I'm asking - with hammers formed today, and FOMC/banks nonsense, and also now seasonality (especially after last 48 hour stuggle hopefully behind us now), I can't help but think we tomorrow see 15 to 30 points up! Thus, possibly creating new columns of Xs showing up! :o
Click to expand...
Sorry- been busy, and didnt' get a chance to answer. I only am following the C closely, not the S or I charts. But I think the C does enough to tell me about elsewhere.

The C officially turned to a "high pole warning" on the 12th. Because we are in a blue line cycle now, that should have triggered me to move to safety on the 13th. I was very busy yesterday and didn't get a chance to make the move, so I am trapped in it today. I will most likely move to the sidelines today as a result of the high pole warning. The problem is I already missed the exit point by two days.
Is filling that gap, in that single chart, that much a certainty, because that will drag down the others with it?
Click to expand...

Now you are talking relational influences between different segments. IN short answer, no, they are usually independant of each other. P&F charts have tradionally been used to track individual stocks, not indexes, so the fall in one stock can be inpendant of any other. However, since all stock indexes are a wide mixture of stocks, one can assume that you MAY see similar results across bands- because in index tracking you are seeing a LOT of stocks moving overall. Note: I fund will be different, because I also includes the varible of the value of the dollar indepenent of stock prices. Right now the dollar has ceased it's freefall of the last few months, so I would expect that, going forward, we may see smaller returns in the I than in the domestics, which is a change in the patterns from the last year, when we saw I doing better, a lot because of the compounding affect of the falling dollar on the I's rate of increase. This last cycle I reduced the amont of "I" that I am carrying, and increasing the amount of C.
Is there a necessity to fill that gap in that one chart, or other causes to predict a downward push? - I'm not hearing needs for filling that gap from other sources, but could see something of this scenario more in maybe Jan/Feb? :worried:
VR (as always).
PS I've been all in-riding wave, too>
Click to expand...

I think the C's gap will be filled. Not sure if it will be now, but I do believe it will be filled. And since it is a major segment, you will probably see S tag along for the ride. I don't know about I, for the reasons stated above.

We'll see.
 
Here is where we are right now:


As you can see, right now we're at the 1467 level. As mentioned previously, I expect it on this cycle to drop right in around 1440-1430, and then we're at the bottom for the next strong cycle up. Yesterday I said I would think about buying in around 1460 or lower, as this market has been pretty strong, and I didn't know if we would make it all the way down to 1430 before the turnaround. Today is pretty consistent with that thought process. Anything at 1460 is a bargain comapred to the 1510 last week. And if it does go below 1440, which I think it will because we have a gap to fill, then that is plenty to load up on . If you wait until 1430 you could get burned by waiting too long.​

This week's sentiment survey also confirms to me the thought. Sentiment Survey has been running a few days to a few weeks ahead of what the markets have actually done. Sentiment goes to a buy this week- so I think the next few days are a great time to do - IF it falls below 1460, and the best points in are around 1440.​

Remember- pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. If someone misses the entry point, then you are out of luck.​

I'm in right now, riding the broncho, because I missed the exit point two days ago. But it won't be long before the reverse again.​

As always- the dispclaimer. You do what YOU want. I am no expert. Don't listen to me. Don't do what I say, and then think it will work. I don't have a clue what I am doing, and you shouldn't think that I do. Oh, yeh, this disclaimer too- I almost forogt.​

Ready:​

"Except in Nebraska".​

(I love that one.)​
 
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Hey James,
I thought it was: "Except in Nebraksa"
(Legalistically, even more clever.) ;)

Anyway, wanted to say thanks, I am beginning to pick up the concepts. Also beginning to think we may need faster ways to catch the tops & bottoms. Don't get me wrong, p&f is good, useful, but for example, in the C I recall it was about 1507, maybe Dec 6 when the Bullish Reversal Pattern actually tipped. Likewise it was ~1490 Dec 12th the "High Pole Warning" appeared - not really indiating a Reversal (to me).
The Bullish PO is even still, today calling for 1750.

I'm still all in 20,50,30. I know alot of others bailed (and they lost $$$, but I decided I'd play it long, as its my belief, since the FOMC that the bankers & financial institutions been playing the wounded bird act (but almost always turn up next day mysteriously claiming daily profits!). I think this nonsense is about ended (for now) - and Mon/Tues next week we'll see a return to a couple normal Christmas weeks, before "they" begin begin the act again (sometime in Jan), so I think a temp bottom is in. Even if we go the 1430 now, that's what, only a few points over 30 from where we are now (we could do that in a single intraday move!) - then we springboard and see 1530+.

I do think we'll see more pain - later, maybe worse even, but I think Fed wants to spread it out over time, rather than have it go all at once. Just my thinking, and strategy, given where I am today.
VR
Really appreciate all the lessons!
Matt :)
 
Well, some feedback for today.

We're exactly on track as predicted last week. The chart is shaping up nicely. Last week I said that the S&P would have to fill in the gap around 1430 before it would reverse direction. Well, we're getting darn close to that level now. I said that a buy back in under 1460 was a good thing, and that if we were to get below the 1460 mark, we would most likely see 1430 and then the turnaround.

There is nothing today that changes that idea. We are exactly where we should be, according to history and the P&F charts.

Here is today's action, showing two more "O"s appearing, as we close in on that 1430 level. Today wer're at 1445.


Because we're not able to go in at exact levels, I would say now is a good time to begin buying back in. We can't call the bottom exactly, because we have only once a day opportunities to buy, and that is at the close. I am fully in, having ridden it down this month. That's my fault for not being fully engaged here, but rather being engaged elsewhere, if you know what I mean. We've hit 2,000 signatures on the petition, and that is good, but it's only a start. More are needed, and more help in getting the word out. ​

Anyway, I see the P&F chart showing closing in on 1430. That's a good entry point for the next wave up. I see a postive wave coming, so we'll leave it at that. ​

Remember, use your own feelings, your own intellegence, and your own level of risk in deciding what to do with your own money. Don't listen to me, as I am just another federal employee, with my own ideas. You do what you want to do. This is NOT financial advice of any kind. If you decide to buy in here, around 1430, it's because YOU made that decision on your own. ​

Oh yea, one final disclaimer: My favorite one: ​

"Except in Nebraska."​


Have a good day. ​
 
Hi James,
The "S" p&f chart broke today (not pretty for any folks faint of heart), but I thought some may want to see it.
Personally, I was 20C,50S,30I - decided to bail to 50G,50I. I decided a good option was to DCA 20% more into "I" at a low $78.24
- and this also gives me 50G to get more in, when the time is right! (best I could figure out to do, at the time).
I think I can work a good ways back from this position.
VR
View attachment 2838
 
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ok- NOW that we've followed the C P&F chart for a little bit, to get a handle on how this thing is supposed to work, I think what I am going to do is create a new account in the autotracker to reflect the buy and sell signals of the C fund via the P&F chart.​

Because of the length of the cycles, the P&F charts MAY be one way to work within a two-trade type limit. I'll start making account autotracker postings with that in mind, and we'll see how it performs over time. Note: MY OWN ACCOUNT is NOT FOLLOWING THIS YET. I want to see how is does before I put my money to work following this. So, anyway, watch the autotracker, and let's see what kind of return we can get using P&F chart signals.

I am ONLY going to be tracking the C fund, no other funds. Simple, so we'll see how it works.

Here is today's action. Again we had a lower time around mid-day, where we scraped around the 1435 level:


I actually think we MAY have filled that 1430 gap I was talking about today, and if so, then we will not retest it. If we do retest it, that's ok too, as we came within five points or so of that gap today. We are close enough to begin buying back in, as I said yesterday. Since we can't buy in excet for once per day, we may lag a little. I will be creating an autotracker account for the P&F chart C, and will being with an allocation tomorrow of moving to "C".

Let's see how it does for a while.​
 
OK- just an update.

Technically, we "bought in" yesterday at the closing "C" fund price of $16.37 a share. While that is not the ideal location, it's pretty darn close.

I am still expecting that last little "O" to fill in on the above chart. The 1425-1430 gap that we've been talking about for the last couple weeks. It came VERY close two days ago, when it dropped to 1435 and change. But that was not quite enough to trigger the appearance of the final "O" to fill in the chart gap on the P&F chart above the blue line.

That should happen in the next couple of days. And if it does, then we are poised for a nice move upward again, in my humble opinion.

One thing that is a caution signal is the "S" fund chart breaking below the blue support line, as Hessian mentioned. That COULD carry over into the "C". But I kind of doubt that right now. I think unless we see some outside market force affect things (world event, bad sales report, etc), then I think we have enough support here to bounce back off the 1425 level and head north from there.

We'll see.

Take care, and remember, this is not advice. You do what you want to do. Don't ask me, I'm not an investment professional. I'm only a chart watcher, so be careful, and only do what YOU are comfortable doing.

The number one guy this week on the Autotracker is sitting in "F" right now. That should tell you something.

Have a great day, and remember- be careful out there.

Except in Nebraska.
 
Here is the P&F chart for the C fund for today.

It's looking really nice. We've broken upward, gotten rid of those pesky "O"s, and are once again solidly into X territory.

It's the Santa rally, folks. And Santa is here.


There is a very good support now on the down side that has developed. We didn't tweak out that last 1425-1430 range, and that's just fine. What we are seeing now is strength to the upside. Today's annoucement that November consumer sales was up is helping the markets, and since we're so close to Christmas, I see it floating upwards to about 1500 or so.​

The mock "C" P&F system is in the market, and will continue for at least the next couple days that way as we float higher over the holidays. Barring some unforseen outside event, we should coast higher until after the New Year.​

That's good. It gets us into another month. I'm going to try and keep the movement from P&F to the two-per-month theory just to see how it works out.​

Enjoy, and Merry Christmas, everyone. And enjoy the football bowl games.​

(Except in Nebraska. In Nebraska, you all have a Merry Christmas, but your Cornhuskers got beat by Colorado, so your're not going to a bowl game this year. Better luck next year.)​
 
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