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P&F Chart School
- Thread starter James48843
- Start date
James48843
Well-known member
Sorry- I missed that question.
The actual answer is ... neither is EXACTLY the I fund.
The EFA is just an ETF(exchange traded fund) of the EAFE. It gets traded through out the day along with the US market.
It is not the same thing as our I fund, which is based on a mirror of the the MSCI EAFE. MS being Morgan Stanley.
Unfortunately, there is no EXACT index that we can track for our I fund, although the MSCI EAFE is about as darn close as you can come.
If you are using the MSCIEAFE, you'll see almost exactly what our "I" fund is, and that should be close enough to make P&F chart informational assesments to input into your decision making.
Thanks
Jim
hessian
Member
Hi James,
Thanks. I wll be out-of-pocket for at least a couple days (have to see if I can get a dial-up to work - temp.). Anyway just wanted to say thatnk for the answer. Interesting , they look almost the same (as of Wed.) - anyway I'm all bailed (safe back in G now (for that penny on Mon., likely for the week)! Markets just too crazy.
Just 1 question, any reason there is neither bullish, or bearish lines drane on the $MSEAFE? Just curious (the EFA p&f does show a "Bullish Support Line".) Maybe p&f charts don't have to show any, if none is indicated?
Thanks. I wll be out-of-pocket for at least a couple days (have to see if I can get a dial-up to work - temp.). Anyway just wanted to say thatnk for the answer. Interesting , they look almost the same (as of Wed.) - anyway I'm all bailed (safe back in G now (for that penny on Mon., likely for the week)! Markets just too crazy.
Just 1 question, any reason there is neither bullish, or bearish lines drane on the $MSEAFE? Just curious (the EFA p&f does show a "Bullish Support Line".) Maybe p&f charts don't have to show any, if none is indicated?
James48843
Well-known member
I dont' know why. Perhaps it is because the BullishSupport line may be way below (and off the chart) where we are now on that one.
We have NOT broken the bullish support line area on the $MSEAFE, to the best I can trace a guess at where it should be. But that chart only goes back into 2006, so it may be existing well below and off the chart.
I'm sticking on the sidelines until at least next week, while we let things settle a little. The "Black Friday" effect is in force today, and we'll have to wait until we hear what retail results were over the next couple days. If retail spending was good, we MAY have a good december. But if retail spending was down below estimates, we'll likely continue to struggle around here.
Have a good vacation.
Jim
James48843
Well-known member
Ok- back to Chart School.
Today, we continue with the downward momentum. That is fine, we are out of the market sitting on the sidelines. Please take note of both the "formation", a descending Pole formation that officially was recorded as a triple bottom breakdown back on November 20th, and the predicted "Price Objective.
(See earlier lesson on a triple bottom breakdown. )
View attachment 2681
As we are still in a descending "Bearish Resistance Line" formation, we are not yet ready to buy back. We sit safely on the sidelines collecting the F fund earnings, while waiting for the best opportunity to buy back in. We sold when we got the "triple bottom breakdown" indication to sell back on November 19th, when the C fund was at 1440.
There still appears to be downward pressue.
Note one (Note 1) shows where we ended up today, after Friday's bounce back showed a fake out up.
Note two (Note 2) states the "predicted price objective". That is where the P&F chart is saying we should expect to see a turnaround. We are now about 60 points above that figure.
I don't know if I am going to wait until we hit that Price Objective, or if I may start buying in earlier using the dollar cost average method. In my opinion we're going to see more down action tomorrow, and probably wednesday as well. That MAY be the opportunity to get back in- at least partially. If it does drop below 1380, be prepared to buy in at these levels. Good deal.
Remember- right now the P&F chart is telling us to expect 1350. I last sold at 1440, so anywhere here buying back in is profitable. I am not going to wait all the way to 1350, unless things change. I do predict more ups and downs and we float downward. P&F theory says not to buy back until the ups penetrate the red line upward. However, I may go earlier than that, as the market is clearly lower than when I sold- so anything here is gravey to me.
remeber this: Pigs get fat. Hogs get eaten. If we are 5% better off when we rebuy, we've improved. Don't get caught waiting to long, and missing the chance to buy back at a lower cost trying to scroe the big score. There will be more chances like this ahead.
I will be looking at possible buying opportunties soon- perhaps as early as Wednesday, particularly of the market continues this descent.
Price objective today shows 1350.
We'll see.
Today, we continue with the downward momentum. That is fine, we are out of the market sitting on the sidelines. Please take note of both the "formation", a descending Pole formation that officially was recorded as a triple bottom breakdown back on November 20th, and the predicted "Price Objective.
(See earlier lesson on a triple bottom breakdown. )
View attachment 2681
As we are still in a descending "Bearish Resistance Line" formation, we are not yet ready to buy back. We sit safely on the sidelines collecting the F fund earnings, while waiting for the best opportunity to buy back in. We sold when we got the "triple bottom breakdown" indication to sell back on November 19th, when the C fund was at 1440.
There still appears to be downward pressue.
Note one (Note 1) shows where we ended up today, after Friday's bounce back showed a fake out up.
Note two (Note 2) states the "predicted price objective". That is where the P&F chart is saying we should expect to see a turnaround. We are now about 60 points above that figure.
I don't know if I am going to wait until we hit that Price Objective, or if I may start buying in earlier using the dollar cost average method. In my opinion we're going to see more down action tomorrow, and probably wednesday as well. That MAY be the opportunity to get back in- at least partially. If it does drop below 1380, be prepared to buy in at these levels. Good deal.
Remember- right now the P&F chart is telling us to expect 1350. I last sold at 1440, so anywhere here buying back in is profitable. I am not going to wait all the way to 1350, unless things change. I do predict more ups and downs and we float downward. P&F theory says not to buy back until the ups penetrate the red line upward. However, I may go earlier than that, as the market is clearly lower than when I sold- so anything here is gravey to me.
remeber this: Pigs get fat. Hogs get eaten. If we are 5% better off when we rebuy, we've improved. Don't get caught waiting to long, and missing the chance to buy back at a lower cost trying to scroe the big score. There will be more chances like this ahead.
I will be looking at possible buying opportunties soon- perhaps as early as Wednesday, particularly of the market continues this descent.
Price objective today shows 1350.
We'll see.
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James48843
Well-known member
Are we out of the woods yet?
Not by a long shot.
Today's rebound is just letting off some VX steam. You'll notice that we have a lower high than before, each of these rebounds continue to try, but we're just not ready yet to bottom out.
Take a close look at today's S&P P&F chart:
1. Patterns - That's your "Triple Bottom Breakdown" back on Nov 20th. Nothing has changed.
2. Trend Lines - Those are your Bearish Resistance Lines and Bullish Support Lines. The red line is still in effect, and we are below the blue line. nothing has changed, so we disregard any set of three buy signal X that might appear.
3. Market Indicators - This is wild card here- what outside influences are being down on the price. Is there a rate cut coming? War in the middle east? Price of Oil got people down? An election around the corner, and people have uncertainty over who will win?
Today that was pumped by news of Abu Dabi buying Citibank shares. Not much else in the news to brighten things.
4. Price Objectives (PO). This is the mechincal price the charts THINK the price will get to, before a major change in direction. One thing to remember is that the Price Objective is strictly based on where the stock has been, and what it is doing now, independant of any other stock indicator.
Price objective still 1350.
Today's market doesn't change that at all.
Not by a long shot.
Today's rebound is just letting off some VX steam. You'll notice that we have a lower high than before, each of these rebounds continue to try, but we're just not ready yet to bottom out.
Take a close look at today's S&P P&F chart:
You'll notice that we rebounded a little today, but not enough to create a new series of "X"s.
Eight O's down, then five Xs up, then eight zeros down, and ths rebound wasn't even as strong up as the last one. Losing the steam.
Where do we go from here?
I think we're back down again, at least near the low from day before yesterday.
After that- it could go either way.
Remember, there are four different influences on where we head.
1. Patterns - That's your "Triple Bottom Breakdown" back on Nov 20th. Nothing has changed.
2. Trend Lines - Those are your Bearish Resistance Lines and Bullish Support Lines. The red line is still in effect, and we are below the blue line. nothing has changed, so we disregard any set of three buy signal X that might appear.
3. Market Indicators - This is wild card here- what outside influences are being down on the price. Is there a rate cut coming? War in the middle east? Price of Oil got people down? An election around the corner, and people have uncertainty over who will win?
Today that was pumped by news of Abu Dabi buying Citibank shares. Not much else in the news to brighten things.
4. Price Objectives (PO). This is the mechincal price the charts THINK the price will get to, before a major change in direction. One thing to remember is that the Price Objective is strictly based on where the stock has been, and what it is doing now, independant of any other stock indicator.
Outside factors could play in tomorrow- like they did today- like the Citibank infusion of cash from Abu Dabi.
A nice, one day good news story.
But it still doesn't change the fact that the economy is not as strong as many thought just a few months ago.
But it still doesn't change the fact that the economy is not as strong as many thought just a few months ago.
Price objective still 1350.
Today's market doesn't change that at all.
James:
Have you looked at the weekly charts with SLO STO at all? these charts show the 2 market dips this year very clearly, and if we can find good exit/entry points from SLO STO, then we'd only need to do a few IFT a year, which would fit well into the new TSP board scheme of things. Personally, I am also getting tired to the whiplash of moving in/out of the market on a daily basis, so I have been studying the charts to find a slower way to do things. From these weekly charts, if I can find way to dodge most of the dips, and get some of the rise, I'd be very happy! Would appreciate any input from you. TIA.
Have you looked at the weekly charts with SLO STO at all? these charts show the 2 market dips this year very clearly, and if we can find good exit/entry points from SLO STO, then we'd only need to do a few IFT a year, which would fit well into the new TSP board scheme of things. Personally, I am also getting tired to the whiplash of moving in/out of the market on a daily basis, so I have been studying the charts to find a slower way to do things. From these weekly charts, if I can find way to dodge most of the dips, and get some of the rise, I'd be very happy! Would appreciate any input from you. TIA.
James48843
Well-known member
Yes, I've seen the SLO STO charts- but I am not very familiar with them. Sorry, can't help you on that one.
I am blown away by what happened today. I wasn't expecting that, and I am tdy- so I can not take advantage of the info during the day.
Too bad.
I still think we'll get one more down move, though.
Today's action moved up six X's. I think we'll fade down nearly to that low- maybe not all the way, but lower than here. If we do again, I'll look hard at buying back in. If not, I may have missed the boat. We'll know at this time next week.
I am blown away by what happened today. I wasn't expecting that, and I am tdy- so I can not take advantage of the info during the day.
Too bad.
I still think we'll get one more down move, though.
Today's action moved up six X's. I think we'll fade down nearly to that low- maybe not all the way, but lower than here. If we do again, I'll look hard at buying back in. If not, I may have missed the boat. We'll know at this time next week.
James48843
Well-known member
That one threw me, and took me by surprize today.
I'm TDY, so I didn't see the markets at all today.
Missed the fun.
While I was expecting an uptick soon, that one today was much bigger than I was expecting.
View attachment 2716
As you can see- six X's up. I was expecting maybe 2, for a total of five, and then another settling back. Must have been more money pouring in, or other outside influence that caused it to jump that much.
We got a new P&F Chart indicator today.
The triple bottom breakdown was replaced with a low pole up.
If it wasn't for the red line hard above, that would normally be a buy indicator in P&F charting.
However, with the red line above, the cards say to wait.
We're still within the downward trading track- that red line above continues to tell us that we're not out of the woods yet.
I'm unchanged from yesterday-
let's just call it "practice" for the TSP two moves and then you are restricted to the sidelines.
If THAT happens, I'm toast, and I have to completely rethink how I want to do investing.
Gut tells me higher tomorrow, then lower Friday and maybe even monday. We'll see.
I'm TDY, so I didn't see the markets at all today.
Missed the fun.
While I was expecting an uptick soon, that one today was much bigger than I was expecting.
View attachment 2716
As you can see- six X's up. I was expecting maybe 2, for a total of five, and then another settling back. Must have been more money pouring in, or other outside influence that caused it to jump that much.
We got a new P&F Chart indicator today.
The triple bottom breakdown was replaced with a low pole up.
If it wasn't for the red line hard above, that would normally be a buy indicator in P&F charting.
However, with the red line above, the cards say to wait.
We're still within the downward trading track- that red line above continues to tell us that we're not out of the woods yet.
I'm unchanged from yesterday-
let's just call it "practice" for the TSP two moves and then you are restricted to the sidelines.
If THAT happens, I'm toast, and I have to completely rethink how I want to do investing.
Gut tells me higher tomorrow, then lower Friday and maybe even monday. We'll see.
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James48843
Well-known member
Well, today went just about as I expected. Ended up, but only slightly. I think tomorrow will be a profit taking day in the S&P, but probably only a little bit.
Let's recap then where we stand today in the S&P 500 chart:
View attachment 2719
That big, bright red line overhead is still there. That's the Bearish resistance line, and we are below it, so we don't jump onto what normally in an up market would be the buy signals. We sit tight, and wait for a better entry point, as the Price Objective remains unchanged, and we're still not sure if the downside is finished. All the trading continues so far within that downside track. Although I am the first to admit that the up yesterday was at least a full block X higher than I was expecting it to be- which is good- an indicator that there is money out there ready to come back in once we're sure we've changed direction.
The red Bearish Resistance line and the blue Bullish Support line are now converging soon. One of them is going to be the breakout. Will it be a break down, towards our Price Objective, or will it be a break to the upside?
Normally, I'd bet on lower ahead. But the nice 10% correction cleaned out a lot of folks, and sets us up well for the future.
My gut says: tomorrow lower, but not by a lot. Maybe 10-15 lower on the S&P 500. Unless there is some outside news that influences, I'd say it will only be a slight down.
Somebody asked me when I planned on buying back in. A couple days ago I was thinking around 1350-60. Now, looking at where we're at, the next down cycle could very well be in the 1380-90 range. That would be the six to eight units down we've been tracking with the last couple swings. So I think if we get in this area soon, I may just jump back in. After all, we're about to enter a new month, and I'll have to practice my "two trade a month limit" theories, and see if they will work.
We'll see tomorrow, if we end up with a slightly lower close on the day. My thought is- 1445-1450 on the close tomorrow.
hessian
Member
Hello James,
Good to be back. See I missed alot - maybe a good thing. Not sure next week will hold, may see retest -at least my hope since I'm still in G (no TV/news/internet up in the PA hills).
Anyway, a question for class:
Looking at several p&f charts now, many seem that the Red Bearish Resistance Lines do not disappear - they just get maybe broken (with Xs) passed or supassed, but remain. Wherein a new Bullisish Support (blue) line appears and passes the red. Is this normal (that the red lines remain)? Below is an example (Friday's S-Fund), of what I'm trying to ask about.
Please also let me know if you see anything else suggesting S may be improving (I note the 2 new Xs closing on the red line.).
View attachment 2732
Good to be back. See I missed alot - maybe a good thing. Not sure next week will hold, may see retest -at least my hope since I'm still in G (no TV/news/internet up in the PA hills).
Anyway, a question for class:
Looking at several p&f charts now, many seem that the Red Bearish Resistance Lines do not disappear - they just get maybe broken (with Xs) passed or supassed, but remain. Wherein a new Bullisish Support (blue) line appears and passes the red. Is this normal (that the red lines remain)? Below is an example (Friday's S-Fund), of what I'm trying to ask about.
Please also let me know if you see anything else suggesting S may be improving (I note the 2 new Xs closing on the red line.).
View attachment 2732
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James48843
Well-known member
You asked "Is this normal?"
the answer is yes. the lines stay on the chart as we move forward.
Then you ask "...you see anyting else suggesting the S may be improving?"
We are still within the range- between the blue and red lines. Those lines are pointing to each other, so we will have more up and down movements until it breaks out one side or the other.
Under P&F chart theory, we should be sitting on the sidelines now. I threw my hands up on Friday and jumped back in, although the charts are showing a "wait and see" position. I'm sure I will lose as a result of my happy trigger finger last friday.
Anyway, that's what the P&F charts are saying. They are saying we are not yet in a steady direction, so keep to the sidelines and wait.
hessian
Member
James,
I know how busy you are, with website trying to save all our butts (our IFT rights). Hopefully you can espouse capability to DCA is critical (vs their "day-trading" view).
Anyway, thought I'd just post today's SPX p&F chart. I expect, no tactics change is indicated (yet), but its look is kinda interesting...
VR
View attachment 2762
I know how busy you are, with website trying to save all our butts (our IFT rights). Hopefully you can espouse capability to DCA is critical (vs their "day-trading" view).
Anyway, thought I'd just post today's SPX p&F chart. I expect, no tactics change is indicated (yet), but its look is kinda interesting...
VR
View attachment 2762
ayla
Member
What a cliff hanger! Looks like the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 is right at 673 (or 674 depending on where you get the quote) which is the reversal point, right? How many points above that does it have to go in order for P&F to consider it BULL move? May be tomorrow we will see that solid blue support line trending up, do you think?
hessian
Member
Hi Ayla,
First, I need to note that I'm just a student, like you!
James has apparently been busy, so I'll try to help. OK, the $EWM is still not there yet with that red line still overhead. But note below, yesterday's $SPX chart (yesterday it filled all the blank spaces up to pass the red line w/ a new top X wearing that funny little red hat) - then suddenly today, ca-ching, the SPX got its confirmation, a new Blue Bullish line formed!
(also that funny little red hat blew away)Now, for the S chart ($EMW), first thing to know is: the numbers on the right move - even throughout a day, so watch those, but don't put much weight on those numbers. The cool thing today was that new Xs filled in blank spaces right up to the red line. Now this doesn't mean anything in itself - we're still under the red Bearish Resistance line - BUT, the PO (Price Objective) did suddenly move!: from being a red number, far below - to now a GREEN number, a good bit above!! I'm uncertain about what this means, except that now I want to watch more frequently - seems certain that something positive MIGHT be brewing. To me, it was these little oddities that gave me clues to think we may be close, and to watch more often! (the SPX chart below worked into its Bearish Reversal by noon the next day!)
For the S, $EMW chart, suggest, check the link provided a couple times a day - it could only need a few points up, that could give us those Xs breaking atop the red line, and that new, blue Bullish Support line to form!! Again, until we do, we are still technically under Bearish Resistance on this one.
VR
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James48843
Well-known member
Hessian:
Thanks- yes I have been very , very , very busy with the other task.
But you are absolutely right. We broke the red line onto the high side Thursday, and that signals the reversal.
A techincal indicator of better times ahead. Now, we MAY have a down day or two, but overall the chart looks very, very good for a postive future.
I actually went full into stocks at the beginning of the week, so I got the gain this week. (Thank goodness), but this technical also tells me that the new price objective is that we have higher above, and we're going in a postive direction again.
Back to the other subject-
We'll keep focusing on the DCA implications as one of the prime points to stress. No one can aruge that Dollar Cost Averaging is bad for folks.
Pretty good success for a new organization so far. More than 300 signatures on the petition, but we need LOTS more before we deliver them. So spread the word around your place of work, to visit http://tspshareholder.org and sign the petition.
thanks
Thanks- yes I have been very , very , very busy with the other task.
But you are absolutely right. We broke the red line onto the high side Thursday, and that signals the reversal.
A techincal indicator of better times ahead. Now, we MAY have a down day or two, but overall the chart looks very, very good for a postive future.
I actually went full into stocks at the beginning of the week, so I got the gain this week. (Thank goodness), but this technical also tells me that the new price objective is that we have higher above, and we're going in a postive direction again.
Back to the other subject-
We'll keep focusing on the DCA implications as one of the prime points to stress. No one can aruge that Dollar Cost Averaging is bad for folks.
Pretty good success for a new organization so far. More than 300 signatures on the petition, but we need LOTS more before we deliver them. So spread the word around your place of work, to visit http://tspshareholder.org and sign the petition.
thanks
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James48843
Well-known member
Here is the new P&F Chart. The new bullish price objective is 1720.
We have a lot of upside ahead, according to this. I'm fully in right now, and will ride the good ride.
We have a lot of upside ahead, according to this. I'm fully in right now, and will ride the good ride.
Pretty clear indication of an upside breakthrough. If you are not already in stocks, I think you'll have some more opportunities to buy in shortly. It looks like the new lower side resistance points are going to be around 1430-1440, so if we get a dip at all, say into the 1470 or less range, that is a good time to begin loading up. If you are already in, just stay put for a while, because this is going to be a good ride. We COULD be back in the mid 1550s by Christmas.
The regular disclaimer:
As always- no one knows what the markets will do for sure. This is not advice, nor an offer to buy or sell anything. I don't tell people when to buy or sell. I have no knowledge of the future. If you want someone to complain about, Consult with a real financial planner - not me. This is not an offer to give advice, nor is it advice. No small animals were harmed in the posting of this message. If you click on the wrong button, you have to take responsibility for what you do. I would rather be on the beach at retirement than defending myself in court, so I won't tell you which fund or funds to invest in. You are on your own, and it's your own decision. There. I think I covered them all.
As always- no one knows what the markets will do for sure. This is not advice, nor an offer to buy or sell anything. I don't tell people when to buy or sell. I have no knowledge of the future. If you want someone to complain about, Consult with a real financial planner - not me. This is not an offer to give advice, nor is it advice. No small animals were harmed in the posting of this message. If you click on the wrong button, you have to take responsibility for what you do. I would rather be on the beach at retirement than defending myself in court, so I won't tell you which fund or funds to invest in. You are on your own, and it's your own decision. There. I think I covered them all.
Oh, and yeh, I almost forgot this one: "Except in Nebraksa."
Have a good weekend.
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James:
Have you been following this P&F chart for long? I am just starting to look at charting, and while the other types of chart allow you to compare past performance, this one doesn't. From your experience, whenever there is a turnaround with a bullish revised number, how well does the market follow it? I saw the turnaround on the DOW 12900, which is pretty much right on the dot, but that was my only experience.
Thanks for all the free training
Have you been following this P&F chart for long? I am just starting to look at charting, and while the other types of chart allow you to compare past performance, this one doesn't. From your experience, whenever there is a turnaround with a bullish revised number, how well does the market follow it? I saw the turnaround on the DOW 12900, which is pretty much right on the dot, but that was my only experience.
Thanks for all the free training
hessian
Member
James:
Have you been following this P&F chart for long? I am just starting to look at charting, and while the other types of chart allow you to compare past performance, this one doesn't. From your experience, whenever there is a turnaround with a bullish revised number, how well does the market follow it? I saw the turnaround on the DOW 12900, which is pretty much right on the dot, but that was my only experience.
Thanks for all the free training
RPM, James isn't too likely to reply because he's very, very busy, with new website/petition -trying to save all our butts (our IFT rights). I'll try to answer your question - take it for what its worth. (I started as a student w/ this thread - and recomend reading it all from the start.
First p&f charts remove the element of time (focus is to identify trends.)
Below attached is the Dec 7, "S" chart (well, EFA anyway) - it gives a little different picture than the $SPX - as EFA is currently teetering on a posssible Bullish breakout - called a "Traditional Triple Top Breakout"Pattern/Traditional Triple Top Breakout (& consequently note the new "Prelim. Bullish PO")/
View attachment 2783
Still however, until those Xs break atop the red line, and a new, blue Bullish Support line to forms under this, we are still technically under Bearish Resistance on this one.
Read reply to Ayla below, and maybe work to catch-up in meantime!
(And note, there is a '07 mark along bottom, and, the numbers in the chart indicated the LAST day of a particular month, but more as just an FYI - not meant to compare past performance!)
Return to this link a couple times a day to watch for changes, like Monday/Tues:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P&listNum=
And, along the chart bottom, review the various "Instructions," "about p&F Alerts", etc...
Again, expect James not much reply fully until AFTER his other undertaking concludes (he's working the petition)...
VR_____________________________________________
sign the petition, at http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/rev...fund-transfers
(http://www.tspshareholder.org/ )
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hessian
Member
Ayla,
To you specific question: seems the worm (S) did turn this morning at 11:17am.
VR
View attachment 2788
To you specific question: seems the worm (S) did turn this morning at 11:17am.
VR
View attachment 2788
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