Viva_La_Migra
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P&F Chart School
- Thread starter James48843
- Start date
James48843
Well-known member
Note-
After the close today, the P&F chart shows a "High Pole warning".
The bad news is that traditionally means we're about to see a thrust downward.
The good news is that there appears to be a support of sorts at the 815 to 820 level, and IF that holds, that would make a good base for another rise soon. On the other hand, if that 815 level breaks through downward, then we can kiss that 1010 bullish prediction goodbye, and a new, lower downward bearish price projection will appear.
At this point, I don't know which way it will go. it's too late to pull out now if it is going to stop at 815 and then reverse course.
On the other hand (is that three hands.....?? ) it could be a new downward drop ahead.
Only time will tell.
here is the chart-
After the close today, the P&F chart shows a "High Pole warning".
The bad news is that traditionally means we're about to see a thrust downward.
The good news is that there appears to be a support of sorts at the 815 to 820 level, and IF that holds, that would make a good base for another rise soon. On the other hand, if that 815 level breaks through downward, then we can kiss that 1010 bullish prediction goodbye, and a new, lower downward bearish price projection will appear.
At this point, I don't know which way it will go. it's too late to pull out now if it is going to stop at 815 and then reverse course.
On the other hand (is that three hands.....?? ) it could be a new downward drop ahead.
Only time will tell.
here is the chart-
Viva_La_Migra
Well-known member
"As January goes, so goes the rest of the year." If this saying is true, we are in deep trouble! 
Proceed with EXTREME caution!
Proceed with EXTREME caution!
James48843
Well-known member
Well, here we are, right where I thought we would be.
The 810 to 815 mark is reached- and holds on first push. I called that last week. Now is where we find out where things are going to go. That gap got filled in to take us to 815ish.
Here is this morning's chart. It shows the gap filled, AND since we haven't broken doward below, we're still techincally showing the 1010 mark as a bullish price objective:
The 810 to 815 mark is reached- and holds on first push. I called that last week. Now is where we find out where things are going to go. That gap got filled in to take us to 815ish.
Here is this morning's chart. It shows the gap filled, AND since we haven't broken doward below, we're still techincally showing the 1010 mark as a bullish price objective:
View attachment 5617
One of two things is going to happen right now.
Either the 810-815 mark holds, in which case we'll turn around and head upward for a while (not to the 1010 level, but at least back into the 860 or more range, easily). OR
If the 810 doesn't hold, then we'll have a bloody breakdown downard form here.
Could go either way.
I'm trying to be optimistic, and thinking we're about to head back upward- but you never know during a bear market what will come next.
Good luck.
Either the 810-815 mark holds, in which case we'll turn around and head upward for a while (not to the 1010 level, but at least back into the 860 or more range, easily). OR
If the 810 doesn't hold, then we'll have a bloody breakdown downard form here.
Could go either way.
I'm trying to be optimistic, and thinking we're about to head back upward- but you never know during a bear market what will come next.
Good luck.
James48843
Well-known member
Ok- Now we have some REALLY interesting things on the P&F horizon.
The 815 held, and we've had a rebound. We're sitting at a 868 level right now, and Monday could be interesting, to say the least. I said last week that if the 810-815 level held, I saw a bounce back up to at least 860 shortly after. We got exactly that. P&F chart was right.
Now, it's not quite so clear. But it IS interesting.
Where the chart is at today is this- we've still got a technical indicator saying we're expecting a 1010 bullish price objective in place. What makes this one different than the recent past is that in order to reach that 1010 bullish price objective, we'll have to mow through some serious territory. We've got to penetrate that red bearish blockade above us. THAT will take some serious confidence on the part of share holders in order to happen.
Here is the chart, as of today:
The 815 held, and we've had a rebound. We're sitting at a 868 level right now, and Monday could be interesting, to say the least. I said last week that if the 810-815 level held, I saw a bounce back up to at least 860 shortly after. We got exactly that. P&F chart was right.
Now, it's not quite so clear. But it IS interesting.
Where the chart is at today is this- we've still got a technical indicator saying we're expecting a 1010 bullish price objective in place. What makes this one different than the recent past is that in order to reach that 1010 bullish price objective, we'll have to mow through some serious territory. We've got to penetrate that red bearish blockade above us. THAT will take some serious confidence on the part of share holders in order to happen.
Here is the chart, as of today:
View attachment 5691
One thing that is really interesting to me is what I have marked in the heavy blue line underneath - we've gotten higher lows recently on these cycles, meaning that we're looking more and more like a narrowing of the support below and the resistance above. We're getting into a flag formation- and those are always followed by movement either breaking down, or breaking up.
If I didn't know anything else besides the technicals here, I'd say we're about to get a break to the upside. The rest of the economy may counter the technical nature of the display here, but on technicals alone, it says we have a strong chance of breaking upwards in the very near future.
I'll put on my rose colored glasses, and say that this week, perhaps with the passage of a stimulus bill, that we'll get a significant rally going. All those job losses be damned, all those lower earnings not considered, it looks to be like we're about to go ballastically higher.
Now, there are a number of resistance points above that could come into play. 870 is the first resistance level. Then there is a REAL resistance point at about 915-920. IF 920 doesn't kill the momentum, then there is plenty of room above that to run.
So, for Monday (and Tuesday), I am looking to see if the 870 is going to be a ceiling, or if we'll break through.
Let's cross our fingers on this.
As I see it today (And I may be wrong- Lord knows I may be wrong), I am calling the chart to say: Monday higher- 70% chance. Perhaps 60% chance that we'll break through 870. And better than 50/50 that we'll reach 920 early next week.
We'll see how it pans out.
Best of luck to you all.
If I didn't know anything else besides the technicals here, I'd say we're about to get a break to the upside. The rest of the economy may counter the technical nature of the display here, but on technicals alone, it says we have a strong chance of breaking upwards in the very near future.
I'll put on my rose colored glasses, and say that this week, perhaps with the passage of a stimulus bill, that we'll get a significant rally going. All those job losses be damned, all those lower earnings not considered, it looks to be like we're about to go ballastically higher.
Now, there are a number of resistance points above that could come into play. 870 is the first resistance level. Then there is a REAL resistance point at about 915-920. IF 920 doesn't kill the momentum, then there is plenty of room above that to run.
So, for Monday (and Tuesday), I am looking to see if the 870 is going to be a ceiling, or if we'll break through.
Let's cross our fingers on this.
As I see it today (And I may be wrong- Lord knows I may be wrong), I am calling the chart to say: Monday higher- 70% chance. Perhaps 60% chance that we'll break through 870. And better than 50/50 that we'll reach 920 early next week.
We'll see how it pans out.
Best of luck to you all.
hessian
Member
James48843
Well-known member
We are within three points of the bearish price objective.
Viva_La_Migra
Well-known member
We sailed right on past that bearish price objective today. What's the next price objective?
Gumby
Active member
The P&F chart just shows "objective met". It will change in the near future.:nuts:
James48843
Well-known member
It will stay at "objective met" until it reverses direction. It could very well continue going down for a while. The objective isn't a floor, it's simply a marker of what the calculation THOUGHT it would reach on this cycle down.
I need an alka-seltzer.
King-size, please.
I need an alka-seltzer.
King-size, please.
XL-entLady
Well-known member
James, the best luck I've had with P&F charts is when I use them to determine important support and resistance levels. Does that make sense, or am I missing something vital here?
Thanks,
Lady
Thanks,
Lady
James48843
Well-known member
James48843
Well-known member
It's been a while since I said anything about the P&F chart- because it's looked dang nasty for a while-
But there is a glimmer of hope showing at the close today.
We got a change in signal- from the seemingly bottomless pit of the last couple weeks, to a new, bullish (at least temporarily) technical change.
As of the close today, we have a reversal showing. And a new bullish price objective showing. Now preliminarily showing at 855 to the upside here.
Here is the chart:
But there is a glimmer of hope showing at the close today.
We got a change in signal- from the seemingly bottomless pit of the last couple weeks, to a new, bullish (at least temporarily) technical change.
As of the close today, we have a reversal showing. And a new bullish price objective showing. Now preliminarily showing at 855 to the upside here.
Here is the chart:
View attachment 6028
Now, do I believe it? Too soon to tell. I would LIKE to think we need a rest from the bloodshed. But you'll notice that even that 855 number means we're still in a bear market, and in times of a bear, we can't yet expect a true reversal and stronger days ahead to continue for long. Technically, also, there is still a gap slightly above where we are that needs to get filled. The chart green line that I carried over from the left tells me that in the strange event we DO go higher from here, we'll have some overhead resistance at the 740 level for a bit. BUT- technically, it's showing perhaps 855 to the upside, and we haven't had any good signs like that for a while. I'll take it. we COULD crash again tomorrow- but...
On the other hand, we're WAY off the levels of just a couple weeks ago, so a short term uptick is really due.
Now, I know there are those out there who are blaming the new President of the United States for all the nastiness in the market.
Me? Nah. I don't buy that.
My own personal opinion (and you are perfectly entitled to yours as well) is that it's just carry over from the last administration still playing out.
If you ARE one of those who puts the 6-6-6 S&P500 market of two trading days ago squarely at the feet of our new Commander in Chief- well, look at the bright side- Perhaps you COULD say that the new President has presented you with the best darn buying opportunity in more than a decade.
Cause you and I both know- that America is ONE FINE NATION- and will be ok in the long run. I am lucky enough (or unlucky enough, depending on your view) to have more than a decade before I will reach retirement, so I think we'll pull out of it sooner rather than later, and I'll have enough time to build back up again.
You can knock us Americans around now and then, but we'll always get back up, knock the dust off, and get back on that horse and ride, eh?
Something to think about-
Chart says TECHNICALLY we're going into a positive time.
I'm not sure - we'll never know the future.
But the chart says BULLISH PRELIMINARY TO 855, so I am moving the technical P&F account over into stocks in the morning. It SHOULD have been moved to "G" back on 2-12-09, but I forgot to move it when the signal changed last time. It was about 740 that day.
Good luck-
As always- my opinions are mine, and mine alone. You do what you think is best for you- cause if you follow me instead of following your own heart, then I darn near guarantee you will have done better elsewhere!
P&F Chart technically back to stocks tomorrow. (Unless everything falls apart in the morning, which it could).
On the other hand, we're WAY off the levels of just a couple weeks ago, so a short term uptick is really due.
Now, I know there are those out there who are blaming the new President of the United States for all the nastiness in the market.
Me? Nah. I don't buy that.
My own personal opinion (and you are perfectly entitled to yours as well) is that it's just carry over from the last administration still playing out.
If you ARE one of those who puts the 6-6-6 S&P500 market of two trading days ago squarely at the feet of our new Commander in Chief- well, look at the bright side- Perhaps you COULD say that the new President has presented you with the best darn buying opportunity in more than a decade.
Cause you and I both know- that America is ONE FINE NATION- and will be ok in the long run. I am lucky enough (or unlucky enough, depending on your view) to have more than a decade before I will reach retirement, so I think we'll pull out of it sooner rather than later, and I'll have enough time to build back up again.
You can knock us Americans around now and then, but we'll always get back up, knock the dust off, and get back on that horse and ride, eh?
Something to think about-
Chart says TECHNICALLY we're going into a positive time.
I'm not sure - we'll never know the future.
But the chart says BULLISH PRELIMINARY TO 855, so I am moving the technical P&F account over into stocks in the morning. It SHOULD have been moved to "G" back on 2-12-09, but I forgot to move it when the signal changed last time. It was about 740 that day.
Good luck-
As always- my opinions are mine, and mine alone. You do what you think is best for you- cause if you follow me instead of following your own heart, then I darn near guarantee you will have done better elsewhere!
P&F Chart technically back to stocks tomorrow. (Unless everything falls apart in the morning, which it could).
turbo23dog
Member
I moved 30% into stocks today. If everything falls apart tomorrow, I might dip in more with my last forward IFT move.
James48843
Well-known member
Note:
New revised bullish price objective is now techincally showing 900.
And....
There is more money flowing in the last three days, than any money flowing in since December. Big money volume pouring in.
Stay tuned.
We just clipped up past that 740 number. Gap filled, and no sign of the expected resistance at 741. 740-741 didn't phase it yet.
Will it cross 750 on the way up, and then hold?? If so- we're blasting off upward for a while.
New revised bullish price objective is now techincally showing 900.
And....
There is more money flowing in the last three days, than any money flowing in since December. Big money volume pouring in.
Stay tuned.
We just clipped up past that 740 number. Gap filled, and no sign of the expected resistance at 741. 740-741 didn't phase it yet.
Will it cross 750 on the way up, and then hold?? If so- we're blasting off upward for a while.
Silverbird
Well-known member
Here's the chart for S
hessian
Member
-Any more, on the this, oh grand Jedi Master...
(did close above 750 & the 20dma)
View attachment 6037
(did close above 750 & the 20dma)
View attachment 6037
Last edited:
James48843
Well-known member
Here's what it is saying, technically, this morning Hessian:
1. Possible upside resistance at 765-770 range.
2. On the downside, the first weak resistance level will be around 720. Then another weak resistance at 710-715 range. Then harder resistance at 695 range.
3. Moneyflow in is at highest levels in a long, long time. Lots of money came back in over the last couple of days. But four days is enough. We're due for some profit taking.
I am seriously thinking today may be the day that I bail out for my first move of the month, and attempt to do a 2% point clip and hope it drops a little at the beginning of next week. Not sure yet if I am going to try that or not yet, but I am thinking about it. If I DO do that, it will most likely be for only a couple of days, and then back in again.
Anyway, that's my thoughts today.
Congrats, by the way, to the relatively high number of people now showing postive returns in the autotracker for year-to-date. Many more than a week ago.
1. Possible upside resistance at 765-770 range.
2. On the downside, the first weak resistance level will be around 720. Then another weak resistance at 710-715 range. Then harder resistance at 695 range.
3. Moneyflow in is at highest levels in a long, long time. Lots of money came back in over the last couple of days. But four days is enough. We're due for some profit taking.
I am seriously thinking today may be the day that I bail out for my first move of the month, and attempt to do a 2% point clip and hope it drops a little at the beginning of next week. Not sure yet if I am going to try that or not yet, but I am thinking about it. If I DO do that, it will most likely be for only a couple of days, and then back in again.
Anyway, that's my thoughts today.
Congrats, by the way, to the relatively high number of people now showing postive returns in the autotracker for year-to-date. Many more than a week ago.
James48843
Well-known member
Today, we dropped back enought to break the upward cycle. There was a strong move of 28 units higher- which is darn nice to see. Now we may get a little pull back- it's overdue. It will depend on what happens in the morning. If it continues down, then we lock in the downward move for a bit. Perhaps a 14 box retracement. That would put us back in the general area where we have some resistance again- 720-735 area.
If we hit that, and then it reverses again, this could be a REAL positive sign- for the first time in a while we would have gotten lower lows.
Then again- this is all a crap shoot. We're in bear market conditions- so beware.
Good luck.
If we hit that, and then it reverses again, this could be a REAL positive sign- for the first time in a while we would have gotten lower lows.
The good news- the chart is still showing a nice, positve 1065 as the target price.
More good news- there is lots of strength compared to past cash flows. And, there appears to be a couple of points between where we are now, and the 720 level, that could serve as support. Frankly I would be surprised if we make it back down to 720 - I think the support at 735 is solid enough that in the event we make it back there- I think that will hold for a while and possibly reverse again.
The bad side- techincally we're still in a bear market. Until that red lines is solidly broken, we're still likely to continue moving down. No evidence yet we've seen the bear go back to his cave- so.....continue to be cautious - buyer beware.
(If and when it drops below the 750 mark, I'll personally be looking for an opportunity to buy back in- I sold a couple days too early on this cycle- and want to try and get it back. We'll see how it works out. Officially, the P&F chart account is still in. )
Then again- this is all a crap shoot. We're in bear market conditions- so beware.
Good luck.
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