Outside Service Says Sell

[Guest]

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Just FYI for everyone. I am subscribing to a timing trend service that just Issued a "Sell" after Thursdays Market close. The reason this is interesting is because their "Buy" signal has been in effect every day since April 3rd, 2003. This is approximately two weeks after the start of the Bull Market. Here is the quote from the site:

"Just as it looked like stocks were poised for a run-up following better-than-expected earnings releases, markets reversed course sharply this week. This caused our Model to detect a trend reversal and issue a Sell signal after the close on Thursday. The move lower was accompanied by increased volume, a clear sign that large institutional investors are now selling the market. Inflation fears have resurfaced and investors appear increasingly worried that higher interest rates are on the horizon and will prevent the market from moving higher. Geopolitical concerns are not helping either. All this caused the Nasdaq Composite to close below its 200-day moving average on Friday, something that has not happened since April 2003. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 lost 6.39% and 5.23%, respectively. As for the S&P 500, it finished 2.92% lower."


Thus, I am shorting now the market in the Nasdaq, S and P, and Russell (all private IRA money) per this models signal. I am new to this model but they have had an excellent track record the past three years, even in the bear market. I have also moved all my 50/50 C and S money into the G Fund effective monday (since I can't short the market in the TSP, I follow their Long only model for TSP) Just FYI. Thanks

Joel

 

[tsptalk]

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Thanks for that update Joel. Please keep us posted (of course you are probably paying for that service so we don't expect youto tellall).

I am hearing a lot of people getting very bearish. May has the makings of a very interesting month. The next few days could be very shaky because of this negative sentiment.

As you may know, I have been very cautious all year. But for the record, other than the next few day, I am gettingmore bullish than I have been since early December.Should be very interesting indeed. I start my 35% C fund allocation on Monday (35% G, 30% F also). I'm looking to get fully invested within the next week or so.

Tom

 

[Mr. Duke]

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JP,

Out of the market is one thing...not sure if I, personally, would have the b---- to short this market. Would say good luck but that would be going against my own interests.....Just kidding,,, go for it

 

[tsptalk]

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Good luck with that Joel. Long and short with margin is better, in my opinion, with a longer term strategy like the one you are using. I tried my hand at day trading several years ago. The whole nine yards, long, short, margin, options,spreads, slippageand of course commissions in and out of positions.I was nickel and dimed to death. It made me rethink about my time frame. Like you said, with TSP it's only long, no margin, and no fees. That's a totally different game.

 

[Guest]

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Tom-

Forgot to tell you. Yes, I am paying $30/month for the timing service, but with Scottrade, and using Profunds, thereare no fees at all getting in or out, even if you only hold for one day.

With Scottrade, you get charged a $17 fee for mutual fund trades not held at least 90 days, this is in addition to any redemption fees (back loads) a fund may have. The $17 is true for everyone except Rydex, Profunds and Potomac, which have no fee at all. So at least I am not getting hit with trading fees, because I am exchanging between long funds and short funds by this same Profunds company. So if there is a small bright side, that would be it, I guess. Just thought you would like to know in case you were ever looking for an online broker, maybe for private funds. By far, if you are doing your own trades, Scottrade is the best and most economical, hands down.

Joel

 

[tsptalk]

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jgp -

You are getting your 3% back and more I assume . :!

 

[Guest]

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Weekly Results:

Russell 2000 short on margin: up 3.86% :^

S&P 500 short on margin: up 1.86% :^

Nasdaq 100 short on margin: down .77% :v

but as we all know, things can and do change quickly. In fact, the Russell 2000 bear on margin went up 5.31% just yesterday. So it is pretty volatile. I just pray that these guys know what they are doing.

Also, they made the signal change after the close of the market on April 29th (a Thursday) and in their new results they include gains (market was down on April 30th) for the Friday. I'm not sure how they are trading so quickly because I think the rest of us get the end of the day markets close (Friday, in this case). Just like the TSP noon deadline, with Scottrade if I trade prior to 3:00 pm, I get the end of that days markets price. Basically, I could not take advantage of the shorting on April 30th because my exchange was still taking place. I, in fact, was credited for "longing" the market that day and in fact lost money. Had I been able to trade at the beginning of the day Friday April 30th, to do what I wanted to (short the market immediately) I would have had about a 3% gain. Maybe they are using ETF's (spiders, etc) to get their diversification, which I think trade immediately.

By the way, for the week:

C Fund down .8% :v

S Fund down 1.9% :v

although I've been in the G fund all week and will continue to stay until a "Buy" signal arises. I will keep updating this casually (maybe weekly) just FYI. Take care, and thanks for the sight.

 

[puertorico]

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HERE'S IS MY GAME PLAN FOR THE WEEK

This bounce today,Tuesday 11, can be a pull-back

for only two-days "tuesday and wednesday"

after that I gonna put aside the earning .

tAKING SOME MONEY OUT OF THE TABLE

I noT want to loose the winning money.

"Or better" ,this Is My Idea

Baby Step

1-for Wednesday -100% stock -May be a Good Pull-Back

2-for Thursday 50 stock-May Be a resistance

3-for Friday 30% stock- Start Falling again

4-for monday Back 100% -G

mAY That Work For Short Bounce...:?

This make me remember that we see things that

we want to see but not the reality.It's not that easy

 

[puertorico]

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Irak bads news is not helping the

better than especting earning :?

 

[bulldog1971]

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Hi Joel,

Is the timing service you mentioned TimingCube? How do u feel about it?

thanks

Randy Cheng

 

[Guest]

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Randy,

I am not at liberty to say, because I got a threatening e-mail from the service because I stated something on this board.

To answer your second question, Just because you asked, I am down 13.5% since following their signal at the end of March. Does that tell you anything? I am going to stick it out for one year to see how it plays out, but I am not impressed so far. I am using this service for my private IRA money, as well as my TSP, which is only about . I am going to go in another direction with my TSP money, which is an amount still under $10000 right now. Good advice besides this site would be to check out www.tspmoney.com. Sorry I can't give out any more information.

Joel