04/22/26
Stocks opened higher on Tuesday but as the price of oil drifted upward during the day, the stock market indices slipped lower, and eventually closed near the lows as the deadline for the ceasefire with Iran approached. But as we have seen repeatedly, after the closing bell yesterday, the ceasefire deadline was extended until Iran's leaders can come up with a unified proposal the end the war.
Market breadth was quite negative with almost 3 stocks down for every one up and the NYSE and Nasdaq, but following the ceasefire extension after the bell, the S&P futures did move up 20-some points, erasing half of yesterday losses, but of course that doesn't mean anything until the opening bell rings on Wednesday morning.
The price of oil opened lower on Tuesday but rallied as the day wore on, and you keep see the S&P 500 moving in the opposite direction at every turn yesterday.
Here is the daily chart of oil showing the head and shoulders pattern remaining intact, and modestly breaking above some descending resistance. Short-term, this could fill in the right shoulder, but these H&S patterns tend to break down. That said, they are also continuation patterns and they are more bearish when they form in a downtrend, and this one is coming off an uptrend so 85 could end up holding. I'm expecting an eventual breakdown, but there is a technical case for more upside.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was also up as the chart is following the price of oil fairly closely.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) did a couple of things yesterday that caught technical analysts' eye; It created a bearish negative outside reversal day with the higher high and lower low. It also filled in the first one gap, although technically we can say this is open until it gets down to last Thursday's closing price of 7041. To fill any other gaps, it would have to fall below 7000 and create a failed breakout. Perhaps the extended ceasefire will prevent that from happening, but it would actually be satisfying for that gap below 6900 to get filled before the pullback completes. It would create a more sustainable angle of incline.
Once again the Equal Weighted S&P 500 chart (same 500 stocks) failed at the old highs, creating a failed breakout and a negative outside reversal day, keeping the double top formation alive. Last Friday's open gap near 201 is within reach on this chart.
Again, the equity futures were up on Tuesday evening, and oil futures moved lower on the extension of the ceasefire, and today could be a test to see if the news completes the shallow pullback, or if the pullback resumes to mend some of those over extended charts.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) didn't create a negative outside reversal day like the S&P 500, but that is a negative reversal day - not quite as bearish as an outside reversal day. This chart has been so strong but it is difficult to want to be a buyer here above three significant open gaps. The extension of the ceasefire may resume the rally, but the reversal day suggests we could see a little more selling first.
ACWX (I-fund) had a rough day but the chart filled in a second open gap, and only the large gap from April 7 remains open on the downside. I don't know if that one will get tested, but there's nothing wrong with this action after the size of the recent rally.
BND (bonds / F-fund) fell sharply with oil and yields moving up yesterday. Once again the top of the wedge is getting tested as the back and forth continues.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Stocks opened higher on Tuesday but as the price of oil drifted upward during the day, the stock market indices slipped lower, and eventually closed near the lows as the deadline for the ceasefire with Iran approached. But as we have seen repeatedly, after the closing bell yesterday, the ceasefire deadline was extended until Iran's leaders can come up with a unified proposal the end the war.
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Market breadth was quite negative with almost 3 stocks down for every one up and the NYSE and Nasdaq, but following the ceasefire extension after the bell, the S&P futures did move up 20-some points, erasing half of yesterday losses, but of course that doesn't mean anything until the opening bell rings on Wednesday morning.
The price of oil opened lower on Tuesday but rallied as the day wore on, and you keep see the S&P 500 moving in the opposite direction at every turn yesterday.
Here is the daily chart of oil showing the head and shoulders pattern remaining intact, and modestly breaking above some descending resistance. Short-term, this could fill in the right shoulder, but these H&S patterns tend to break down. That said, they are also continuation patterns and they are more bearish when they form in a downtrend, and this one is coming off an uptrend so 85 could end up holding. I'm expecting an eventual breakdown, but there is a technical case for more upside.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was also up as the chart is following the price of oil fairly closely.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) did a couple of things yesterday that caught technical analysts' eye; It created a bearish negative outside reversal day with the higher high and lower low. It also filled in the first one gap, although technically we can say this is open until it gets down to last Thursday's closing price of 7041. To fill any other gaps, it would have to fall below 7000 and create a failed breakout. Perhaps the extended ceasefire will prevent that from happening, but it would actually be satisfying for that gap below 6900 to get filled before the pullback completes. It would create a more sustainable angle of incline.
Once again the Equal Weighted S&P 500 chart (same 500 stocks) failed at the old highs, creating a failed breakout and a negative outside reversal day, keeping the double top formation alive. Last Friday's open gap near 201 is within reach on this chart.
Again, the equity futures were up on Tuesday evening, and oil futures moved lower on the extension of the ceasefire, and today could be a test to see if the news completes the shallow pullback, or if the pullback resumes to mend some of those over extended charts.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) didn't create a negative outside reversal day like the S&P 500, but that is a negative reversal day - not quite as bearish as an outside reversal day. This chart has been so strong but it is difficult to want to be a buyer here above three significant open gaps. The extension of the ceasefire may resume the rally, but the reversal day suggests we could see a little more selling first.
ACWX (I-fund) had a rough day but the chart filled in a second open gap, and only the large gap from April 7 remains open on the downside. I don't know if that one will get tested, but there's nothing wrong with this action after the size of the recent rally.
BND (bonds / F-fund) fell sharply with oil and yields moving up yesterday. Once again the top of the wedge is getting tested as the back and forth continues.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Updated monthly:
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
