Oil Slick Stuff

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Minnow said:
James... you're in Michigan, right? In your estimation, how quickly could the automakers respond to a government mandate on a 5 to 10 year transition to NG, ethanol, etc. based on regional economic possibilities (i.e. where NG is more economic, where ethanol is more economic, etc.).

-- all this being a transition to a possible end goal of "energy filling stations" where we pay to charge our vehicle "batteries" or pay energy costs to fill our cars up at home.
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GM already annouced 14 models E85 capable by 2010.

NG is doable, but is a little more costly than E85. If it is straight NG rather than a flex-(NG and gasoline, or just straight NG?) that it can be cost competitive, but if it's both then it's a little higher price.

How long would it take to retool and produce 100% of either ethanol or NG? About three years to four years, IF you had a clear government mandate to do one or the other, or both.

Ideally,you could mandate that 100% production would HAVE to be either flex-E85, or flex-NG, by, say five years out. Five years out could be done for 100% off the line.

Less than 4 years is not doable.

One more problem to consider. Domestic desgins no longer make up the bulk of the auto market. Domestic producer's share of the market is now around 46 percent of cars sold in the U.S., and that was figures before this latest downturn. (Figures from about feb of this year).

Now it will probably be more like 35% when you add together Ford, GM, and Chrylsler.

So, you would also have to get the rest of the world who wants to sell here to convert, and that may not be as easy a task.

I know you can't beleive me saying this- but it's true- Ford, GM and Chrysler are now more nimble responding to market forces than many foreign automakers.


Now- back to your issue- "energy filling stations"-

It's the chicken/egg problem.

You can't build cars without the infrastructer in place to fuel them, so they can go where they want to go, AND

you can't afford to build the infrastucture, until the cars are there that need to use it.

UNLESS you get government direction on a mandated way to go- and I can tell you that is going to be a hard one- UNLESS Congress decideds to make it happen under the leadership of a new President.

This is one of those issues that market forces alone can't make all the decisions- it's going to take governmental decisions on which way to proceed (NG, Electric, or Ethanol) if you want the transition to happen quickly.

Note- prior to the end of World War I, most automobiles were ELECTRIC, not gasoline. And many, many towns had very efficient street car systems in place.

During the 1920's, several Corporations- GM, GE, Goodyear Tire- changed all that forever.

They went around and, as corproations, bought up privately owned street car lines. Then they intentionally destroyed the effieciency of the street car lines, ran up costs, then went to local governments asking for money to keep the steet cars running. And if they refused, the corproations abandoned them, and turned them over to local governments.

then the corps went before local city councils with "the answer" to the Street Car problem.

It sold them busses.

Why?

Because the corps could only sell streetcars once. But busses- well, they could sell them more busses, (GM), more bus tires, (Goodyear), and bus component parts (GE).

the rest is history.
 
Thank you James... I can't begin to craft a response other than to simply add points to your reputation. Your responses to my questions have always been appreciated.

Now, my guess is that a government mandate on all this will probably be forthcoming no matter who is president. I personally like the Pickens Plan (even though he is big into NG) but I want more on how to include the automakers -- they are not to be left out. Retrofitting conversion applications would seem to be a significant market that they would be best positioned to seize upon (again I believe what you said about U.S. automakers being more nimble at this point).

As far as the infrastructure chicken/egg debate -- that was also my headscratcher. Perhaps a program something along the lines of NASA (jobs, jobs, and more jobs)? I mean this does seem to be something the whole nation can get behind, right? If we can send a man to the moon, we can become energy independent within a decade. I don't like the socialist/treehugger overtones of some of the debates.... I prefer nationalist arguments without the philosophical underpinnings -- or how about just getting it done because its best for everyone.
 
Note- prior to the end of World War I, most automobiles were ELECTRIC, not gasoline. And many, many towns had very efficient street car systems in place
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Spot on as usual Jim..

People believe that electric cars were first made as early as 1830. Historians credit English inventor J.K. Harley and Fred M. Kimball with building the first electric car. They built it in 1888. In 1896 the Woods Motor Vehicle Company became the first American manufacturer of the electric car. It was a good product; by 1904 one third of all the cars in Chicago, New York City and Boston were electric powered. And then by 1912 there were 20,000 electric cars and 10,000 electric trucks and buses in the United States. It disapeared between the 1920's and 1960's. In the 1970's it was reproduced again. Experimental cars reached speeds up to 50 miles per hour and could accelerate as fast as gasoline cars.

http://library.thinkquest.org/J0112600/ecars.html
 
Crude Oil breaks Below $80 a barrel! :D Will it hold?
See signature below.
 
Gas down almost 6 cents, nearing $3

Gasoline prices continue to decline but are still 19% above year-ago levels.

By, Catherine Tymkiw, producer
Last Updated: October 11, 2008: 8:57 AM ET

Oil and gas prices slide



NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gasoline prices fell nearly 6 cents a gallon, coming within 30 cents of $3, according to a daily survey of credit card swipes.
The decline comes as oil prices get roiled by anxiety over weakening demand and as the end of the economic crisis appears to be quite a ways off.
The average price of unleaded regular fell to $3.291 a gallon nationwide, down 5.9 cents from $3.350, according to the Daily Fuel Gauge Report issued by motorist group AAA.
The price has now tumbled more than 82 cents, or more than 20%, below the record $4.114 set July 17. It's down nearly 38 cents from a month ago, but remains some 53 cents, or 19%, higher from a year ago.
The average price fell below $3 a gallon in Kansas, where a gallon sells for $2.907, on average. Gasoline is highest in Alaska, at $4.097 a gallon, with Hawaii - at $4.051 - the only other state above $4 a gallon.
Gasoline prices had surged during the highly traveled summer season and as a series of hurricanes battered oil refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. But with hurricane season nearly over, prices began their slide.
Oil prices also have been moving sharply lower amid fears that the economic crisis, which has deepened globally, will have a severely adverse effect on demand.
Crude plunged to a 13-month low on Friday, shedding as much as $9 a barrel at one point. Prices for the November contract ended down $8.89 to $77.49 a barrel. That's a far cry from the $147.27 a barrel seen in July.
The survey is conducted for AAA by Oil Price Information Service from credit card swipes at more than 85,000 service stations nationwide.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/11/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm?postversion=2008101108
 
nnuut said:
Areyou sure that's not $3.489? WOW!:confused:
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This was closest to the house..I wasn't gonna drive 5 miles to take a picture of the $2489 one..So close enough

MVC-002F-2.jpg
 
We are being RIPPED OFF down here in Georgia. Ya know I believed you, I checked it on GasBuddy!:)
Down to around $3.209 now in GA!
 
I'd like to hear people's thoughts about the drop in gas prices.

1. One could say that the price drop is good for the economy, in that it means profits that were in jeopardy a few weeks ago are now in much better shape. We have more in our pockets = it doesn't cost as much to buy gas, truckers diesel will be lower, jet fuel will be lower, etc. Is that a good sign, and is it enough to help get things on more solid ground in the time ahead,

2. the flip side is that gasoline falling means there is an over supply, less demand, and that means the rest of our economy is tanking. People are losing jobs so they don't need that fuel, in which case falling gas is NOT a good sign.

What are your thoughts? What do YOU think the falling price means for our economy?

thanks
 
We are in all types of commodity deflation and that is good for the Fed. We need another hefty drop in interest rates and that will trickle down to the consumer and small business owner - jobs will be maintained. We are simply in a mid-cycle slow down which is positive to cool things off and the economic expansion will last longer. GE was a perfect example. I still don't believe we go into a recession and the markets will rebound eventually. All good things take time.
 
James48843 said:
I'd like to hear people's thoughts about the drop in gas prices.

1. One could say that the price drop is good for the economy, in that it means profits that were in jeopardy a few weeks ago are now in much better shape. We have more in our pockets = it doesn't cost as much to buy gas, truckers diesel will be lower, jet fuel will be lower, etc. Is that a good sign, and is it enough to help get things on more solid ground in the time ahead,

2. the flip side is that gasoline falling means there is an over supply, less demand, and that means the rest of our economy is tanking. People are losing jobs so they don't need that fuel, in which case falling gas is NOT a good sign.

What are your thoughts? What do YOU think the falling price means for our economy?

thanks
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Definitely #1..means the cost of everything trucked, railed or flown will come down in price, means more money for more groceries, means the cost of asphalt to make and fix roads is down..means carpet will be cheaper, means roofing will be cheaper, means things made of plastic will be cheaper....ETC!..Then that means there is more money in the household to pay for colleges and better health and dental care, suitable clothing for kids....Crazy how the price of gas and oil can impact everything we do in life..
 
Sorry, but can't post too much today, trying to get the Heads off of my Daughter's Blazer today, it's NOT pretty!:o

Oil recovers but demand worries remain

Crude prices end their losing streak after Europe, the U.K., and the U.S. move to pump billions into financial institutions, But experts warn that the worst may not be over.


By Kenneth Musante, CNNMoney.com staff writer
October 13, 2008: 12:45 PM ET


v2-cnnmoney-chart1.mkw.gif



NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices bounced back above $80 a barrel Monday after a group of European countries tried to restore economic confidence by promising to bail out major banks.
The sliding global economy pulled oil prices to a 13-month low on Friday as investors worried that cash-strapped businesses and consumers were cutting back on fuel consumption.
During Monday trading, U.S. crude for November delivery rose $3.13 to $80.83 a barrel in electronic trading following a pledge by euro-zone nations to provide capital and guarantee loans.
The Treasury Department also began laying out plans Monday to implement the government's $700 billion program to restore bank confidence and get money flowing through the economy again. The plan was signed into law 10 days ago.
There were also pledges by 15 Eurozone nations and the U.K. to stabilize their respective banking systems.
However, even if the efforts of the world's governments succeed in shoring up the global financial system, it may not restore demand right away, according to Rachel Ziemba, energy analyst at RGE Monitor. [more]
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/13/markets/oil/index.htm?postversion=2008101312
 
Oil jumps above $84 a barrel

Crude prices rise $3 on plans by both the U.S. and European governments to inject capital into ailing banks.

October 14, 2008: 7:10 AM ET


SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices rose above $84 a barrel on Tuesday as panic selling over a global financial crisis eased after the U.S. and Europe pledged to pump capital into ailing banks.
Light, sweet crude for November delivery was up $3.30 to $84.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $3.49 Monday to settle at $81.19.
Investors have cheered signs that the U.S. and European governments plan to inject capital into major banks. Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei 225 index jumped 14% Tuesday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday gained more than 11%, its biggest one-day rally since 1933.
"There's some confidence from Western governments buying stakes in banks, and the financial panic seems to have subsided a little," said Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director for market maker Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. "Crude oil certainly overshot on the downside."
Oil fell to a 13-month low on Friday, settling at $77.70. Crude is down about 44% since reaching a peak in mid-July.
The U.S. plans to spend an initial $250 billion of a $700 billion bailout buying stock in private banks, industry and government officials said Monday night. President George Bush planned to announce the details later Tuesday.
That followed signals that European governments were putting up about $2 trillion to safeguard their own banks.
Although the massive rescue plans boosted short-term sentiment, the scale of the bailout underscores the current weakness of the global financial system and the likelihood of a prolonged economic downturn, Kornafel said.
"I think we're only seeing the beginning of demand destruction," Kornafel said. "Once the problems in the banking sector are straightened out, we're going to have to deal with the longer term problem of how this is going to trickle down to the world economy and demand for oil."
Oil prices will likely fluctuate between $70 and $90 until the world economy begins to grow again in 2009 or 2010, Kornafel said.
Other analysts are revising down forecasts. Goldman Sachs on Monday cut its year-end crude price forecast from $115 a barrel to $70.
In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 4.72 cents to $2.39 a gallon, while gasoline prices gained 4.43 cents to $1.96 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery rose 9.2 cents to $6.78 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, November Brent crude rose $2.02 to $76.66 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/14/news/companies/oil.ap/index.htm
 
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