Oil Slick Stuff

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I know, it's way too early to decide yet, those were this morning's models. Keep an eye on the H over the gulf coast states and the steering currents. Those will tell the story. We've got some real meteorological talent here on the MB who will keep us updated as it gets closer. (I hope):D
 
The good news (sorry for calling it that- because it's not to the people affected) is that it appears to have a high likelihood of spending a lot of time over land- specifically it may crawl up over Cuba on the trip. That would keep the storm from gaining strength like it would over open water, and would keep it on the Category 1 side of things-

Cat 1 is not really good, but it's a heck of a lot better than if it had tracked say, 200 miles to the south, and stayed over open water the whole time.

We'll see where it goes. Keep an eye on it.

And thanks for the posts with the maps. I was over on the national hurricane site looking for those maps, and couldn't seem to find the same ones you've posted, lus2read.
 
pretty cool. Nature knows?

Where Fay might go then is still a matter of considerable disagreement among the models, with the GFDL eying Miami, the NOGAPS and UKMET the Florida Panhandle, and the HWRF, ECMWF, and GFS the west coast of Florida. One interesting forecast, relayed to me by a gentleman who lives by the coast in Magnolia, Alabama, concerns sea turtle nesting behavior along the Alabama coast. Here's the email I got before last year's hurricane season:

Dear Dr. Masters,

I live in Magnolia Springs, Alabama, just 15 miles from the direct path of Hurricane Ivan. I have a friend of mine who has been an in-shore charter boat captain in this area for 30 years. He has the answer to all the failed hurricane predictions we keep making. He told me that Sea Turtles have the answer. Every year sea turtles start nesting around the first of June, unless a hurricane comes that year. Well, storms usually come after June, right? So how could they know? Well he stated last year that I had nothing to worry about because the turtles were on point, even though hundreds of scientists had predicted the worst season in history. Well he made a believer out of me. 2006 nesting, 2005 no nesting, 2004 no nesting and so on. My memory is not that good. He said that when nesting, a hurricane will not hit within 200 miles of the area. Now, I'm no betting man, but I will put $1000 on this year that we won't get hit. How about it?

Thank you,

Trammell Henry

Well, Mr. Henry's sea captain friend was right last year, and I'm glad I didn't bet the $1000! I contacted Mr. Henry again this June to ask him what the sea turtles were forecasting for the 2008 hurricane season. The forecast: the sea turtles are nesting, so no hurricanes on the Alabama, Mississippi, or nearby Florida Panhandle coasts this year. Thus, the sea turtles think the most westerly path over the Florida Panhandle favored by the NOGAPS model will not happen. We shall see! It would be nice to have another reliable forecast method to use.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1026&tstamp=200808
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Oil rises as storm may disrupt supply

Shell evacuates 360 staff from Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Fay approaches Florida.

August 18, 2008: 4:42 AM EDT

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices rose Monday in Asia on concerns that Tropical Storm Fay may disrupt oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

U.S. crude for September delivery rose 56 cents to $114.33 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract fell $1.24 on Friday to settle at $113.77 a barrel.
"There could be some supply disruption issues there so the market is watching this closely," said Mark Pervan, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank in Melbourne.
Fay, the sixth storm of the 2008 Atlantic season, was slowing down early Monday and moving erratically, but forecasters still expected it to strengthen slowly to a hurricane. Fay has already killed at least five people after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic with weekend torrential rains and floods.
Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell has evacuated about 360 staff from the Gulf of Mexico over the past two days.
At 300 GMT, Fay was centered about 170 miles southeast of Havana and 235 miles south-southeast of Key West, Fla., according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.
It had maximum sustained winds near 50 mph and was moving west-northwest at 10 mph.
Forecasters expected the storm to begin moving more to the northwest later on Monday. Current models show the storm moving up the western coast of Florida, although forecasters still didn't know exactly where it will make landfall.[more]
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/18/markets/oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008081804
 
I knew this was coming if prices stayed below that profit "comfort level." One of those times where I don't like being right. Do NOT believe those "surprise" numbers the USA feeds the media every week.

OPEC official says output cuts may be needed

By MarketWatch
Last update: 3:09 p.m. EDT Aug. 16, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- An Iranian official in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Saturday that the producers group is considering leaving oil production levels unchanged or perhaps even trimming them to shore up flagging prices and defend market share.

"The market is oversupplied by at least 1 million barrels a day. If OPEC would like to remove this additional oil out of the market, then OPEC has to cut some production," OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi told Dow Jones in a telephone interview. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...%7D&dist=msr_1
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luv2read said:
I knew this was coming if prices stayed below that profit "comfort level." One of those times where I don't like being right. Do NOT believe those "surprise" numbers the USA feeds the media every week.
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Darnit!! Let's cut their wheat, why not?:suspicious: I don't believe any of the numbers, it's discouraging.:confused: About Faye, I know that usually hurricanes have a tendency to turn to the right when they are over land, so straight up she goes.:cool:
 
AP
Wall Street pulls back as oil prices advance
Monday August 18, 10:35 am ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer

Wall Street retreats as oil prices rise; financial stocks retrench
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street fell moderately Monday as a rebound in oil prices back to the $115 level lifted the market's anxiety about the economy.
Light, sweet crude rose 67 cents to $114.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising as high as $115.35 as Tropical Storm Fay approached Florida. Higher oil hurts consumers, the major drivers of the economy. Last week, oil dropped to levels not seen since early May.
Investors were also concerned once again about financial stocks after media reports of further turmoil in the sector. The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed sources, that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. might have to pre-announce its third-quarter results in anticipation of a large loss, while Barron's said the U.S. Treasury might have to recapitalize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The session was following the market's pattern of late, with investors uneasy about higher oil prices and their impact on consumer spending and the overall economy, and about the continuing fallout from the credit crisis on the financial sector. There were no major events influencing trading, so, with oil rising and more signs of problems at financial companies, investors found little to encourage them to buy.[more]
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080818/wall_street.html
 
By CNBC.com | 18 Aug 2008 | 10:17 AM ET


Decreased global demand will push the price of oil to about $80 a barrel in the coming months, Merrill Lynch Vice Chairman Tom Petrie said on CNBC.

"I think it's pretty clear demand elasticities have been triggered in a way that will take prices lower," Petrie said. "I do think $80 to $90 is probably where the floor is."
Pertrie said the importance of high energy prices cuts across the economy, from pressures on corporate balance sheets to consumers, who will not be able to escape recessionary pressures until gas prices abate.
"At $100 it's still a real tax on the consumer," he said. "With all the other credit questions in the economy, it's not just the tax at $100 or $90, it's all these other financial issues that have to work their way through the economy. I think it's the combined effect that's working it's way through consumer behavior."
Petrie said consumers won't get substantial belief until oil breaks below $100.
 
nnuut said:
By CNBC.com | 18 Aug 2008 | 10:17 AM ET


Decreased global demand will push the price of oil to about $80 a barrel in the coming months, Merrill Lynch Vice Chairman Tom Petrie said on CNBC.

"I think it's pretty clear demand elasticities have been triggered in a way that will take prices lower," Petrie said. "I do think $80 to $90 is probably where the floor is."...Petrie said consumers won't get substantial belief until oil breaks below $100.
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Has he not heard of OPEC?:nuts:

(I love that typo...."belief" instead of "relief"...or is it?)
 
I find it interesting that the price of oil didn’t spike as a result of the Russian attack and more recently the storm action that’s getting ready to hit Florida. I just hope it runs back down below 100. I heard on the radio that my used 2008 Toyota Prius with 7K miles on it is now worth more than what I paid for it five months ago!! The waiting list for a new 2008 Prius is over two months and demand for them is huge. :cool::cool:
 
Like I say:
OIL<50 = Beautiful, <60 = OK,.60-65 = Worry, >65 = BAD, >74= UGLY, Over $80 = PRICE FIXING:suspicious:
 
South Carolina? New Orleans? Where will Fay go next?
The computer models continue to show an unusual amount of disagreement about the longer term path of Fay. The official NHC forecast follows the GFDL and HWRF models, which takes Fay northwards through the Florida Peninsula. However, the latest runs of these models now predict Fay will emerge off the east coast of Florida, restrengthen a bit to a 60-70 mph tropical storm, then make landfall Wednesday along the Georgia/South Carolina coast. This solution assumes that the trough of low pressure turning Fay northward will be strong and enough and be moving slow enough to pull Fay all the way northwards into the U.S.

A weaker trough is predicted by the rest of the models, which foresee that Fay will stall over central Florida or the adjacent Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will then build in, forcing Fay westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A second landfall in the Florida Panhandle or in Louisiana near New Orleans is then a possibility. Since more and more of the models are trending this way, I believe this solution has an equal chance of being correct. "The Joker" may be around to trouble us for another full week or longer.
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_model.html#a_topad
 
Fay just don't know which way to go!!:worried:

Oil's Washington juggernaut

Under fire for high gas prices, the industry is spending record amounts on influence in Washington. Plus: Why Exxon loves Obama.

By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: August 19, 2008: 8:03 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As angry voters spark a barrage of energy bills in Congress, the oil industry is spending record amounts of money protecting its interests.

In what may be surprising to some, the most recent figures from the Center for Responsive Politics show that the oil industry gives a relatively small sum to individual political campaigns - it's 16th on a list of top 50 industries.
But when it comes to lobbying - and spending money that goes toward researching, writing and convincing lawmakers to vote its way - the industry ranks fifth. If the spending continues at the current pace, the industry is set to break last year's $83 million record.
The amount spent on lobbying by the industry, along with lobbying money in general, has been setting records since 2005.
With record gas prices, a contentious fight over energy legislation and a huge election on the horizon it's not surprising the industry spent so much on lobbying this year.
Dozens of bills have been introduced in Congress. Generally, Democrats and environmentalists have favored a strategy heavy on taxing oil companies and funding renewables, while Republicans and the oil industry have pushed for more drilling.
But so far, no major energy bills have been passed. Is it possible all this money has been spent to maintain the status quo?[more]
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/19/news/economy/oil_money/index.htm?postversion=2008081908
 
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