Oil Slick Stuff

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nnuut said:
I really don't like BEARS, in the woods, in the Market, anyware! That is one Big Mean Grizzly!!
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I'm trying to dispell the notion that I'm a Teddybear.
Nice guys finish last, its the NEW and IMPROVED Squalebear ! :nuts:

By the way, I don't like Bears in the Market or Woods either. :)
 
squalebear said:
IMHO, Buster wasn't calling you ignorant, he was using the word which
included the word IGNORE. He might have been referring to a previous
post. See what happens Buster, I'm tell'n MOM ! :eek:
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Spot on..;)

I would never call you ignorant Norm..perish the thought..you are one of the brightest people on the forum here.. (there, filled my suck-up quota for the day):rolleyes::D
 
Oil rises ahead of inventory report

Crude prices up slightly on mixed dollar. Traders await U.S. report on fuel stockpiles.

Last Updated: August 13, 2008: 6:48 AM EDT

VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Traders bid oil moderately higher Wednesday amid mixed signals on the strength of the U.S. dollar and ahead of weekly U.S. crude inventory data expected to show a slight increase in oil supplies.
A weakening dollar has helped boost oil prices this year, because dollar-denominated commodities are often used as hedges against inflation and a falling U.S. currency. The dollar rose against the euro, but fell versus the yen early Wednesday.
Light, sweet crude for September delivery rose 72 cents to $113.73 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by noon in Europe. The contract dropped $1.44 overnight to settle at $113.01 a barrel.
Nymex crude is down about $33, or 22%, from its high of $147.27 on July 11.
"I think a drop of 20% is a bit over done," said Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director for brokerage Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. "We've fallen too far, too fast. I expect the market to sit between $110 and $120 in the short-term."
Investors are waiting for a report by the U.S. Energy report [more]
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/13/markets/oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008081306
 
This is a very interesting report. Click the first link to get the full report with charts and tables in pdf. The 2nd link is the EIA site with the report and more links.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/aug08.pdf

http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo

Short-Term Energy Outlook
August 12, 2008 Release
(Next Update: September 9, 2008)
Consumption. Total U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption is projected to shrink by almost 500,000 bbl/d in 2008 based on prospects for a weak economy and continuing high crude oil and product prices extending into 2009 (U.S. Petroleum Products Consumption Growth). Preliminary June and July 2008 weekly survey data indicate that year-over-year declines in total consumption, which began in August 2007, have narrowed since earlier this year. During the first 5 months of 2008, total petroleum consumption fell by an average of almost 900,000 bbl/d from the same period in 2007. During June and July, the year-over-year declines narrowed to just over 400,000 bbl/d. The year-over-year declines in consumption are not expected to be as large over the forecast period, with 2009 average total consumption about 120,000 bbl/d lower than the 2008 average.
Supply. In 2008, total domestic crude oil output is projected to average 5.15 million bbl/d, up slightly from the 2007 average of 5.10 million bbl/d (U.S. Crude Oil Production). Production growth in the Lower-48 region is expected to more than offset declines in Alaskan output. In 2009, total production is projected to increase to 5.36 million bbl/d, due mostly to the Thunder Horse and Tahiti platforms coming on-stream in late 2008 and 2009, respectively. This projection includes an expectation of hurricane-induced outages of about 10 million barrels for the offshore region in 2008 (see Hurricane Outlook). Fuel ethanol production is projected to increase from an annual average of 430,000 bbl/d in 2007 to 590,000 bbl/d in 2008 and to 650,000 bbl/d in 2009. Because of declining petroleum consumption and growing ethanol production, crude oil net imports are expected to fall by 240,000 bbl/d and petroleum product net imports by 400,000 bbl/d in 2008. Total net imports of crude oil and petroleum products, which peaked at 60.3 percent of total petroleum consumption in 2005, are expected to fall to 56.4 percent and 54.5 percent, respectively, of total consumption in 2008 and 2009.
Prices. WTI crude oil prices, which averaged $72 per barrel in 2007 (Crude Oil Prices), are projected to average $119 per barrel in 2008 and $124 per barrel in 2009. Regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices, which averaged $2.81 per gallon in 2007, are projected to rise to an average of $3.65 per gallon this year and $3.82 per gallon in 2009. The weekly price of regular-grade gasoline, which peaked at $4.11 per gallon on July 14, averaged $3.81 per gallon on August 11, a decrease of 30 cents. Gasoline prices are expected to continue falling slowly, averaging just less than $3.80 per gallon over the next few months. This forecast reflects continuing weak gasoline margins because of the decline in gasoline consumption and growth in ethanol supply. Diesel fuel retail prices in 2008 are projected to average $4.18 per gallon, up from $2.88 per gallon in 2007, and increase to an average of $4.27 per gallon in 2009. These higher prices reflect strength in diesel demand, particularly in emerging markets, which has significantly increased the margins between diesel prices and crude oil costs from those of last year.
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You can also query the database for different variables such as gasoline, heating oil, coal, natural gas, electricity, etc. Interesting to see what your fuel costs might be through 12/09. I did a query for pump price of regular gasoline. It shows actual and projected price from August 1990 forward, I'm posting from Jan 2007. Projected prices are based on contract price of oil for the respective month of delivery with other considerations such as decreased consumption and increase in ethanol supply factored in:

Jan2007 224
Feb2007 228
Mar2007 256
Apr2007 284
May2007 315
Jun2007 306
Jul2007 296
Aug2007 279
Sep2007 280
Oct2007 280
Nov2007 308
Dec2007 302
Jan2008 304
Feb2008 303
Mar2008 324
Apr2008 346
May2008 377
Jun2008 405
Jul2008 406
Aug2008 379
Sep2008 377
Oct2008 377
Nov2008 381
Dec2008 386
Jan2009 388
Feb2009 385
Mar2009 389
Apr2009 391
May2009 392
Jun2009 391
Jul2009 388
Aug2009 384
Sep2009 380
Oct2009 372
Nov2009 368
Dec2009 363

Here's the links:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/steo_query/app/pricepage.htm (query page)

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/steo_query/app/priceresult.asp (for the table above)
 
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Dollar gains ground vs. euro

Euro continues to fall as U.S. trade deficit narrows. Retail sales report in focus.

August 13, 2008: 6:44 AM EDT

Issue #1 on CNN — This week, 12pm ET

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- The dollar gained more ground against the euro Wednesday after a new report showed that the U.S. trade deficit shrank slightly in June as the weaker dollar helped boost American exports abroad.
The dollar strengthened as the 15-nation euro bought $1.4900 in early European trading, drifting lower from the $1.4916 it bought late Tuesday in New York. The euro fell below $1.50 on Friday for the first time since February and is well off its high of $1.6038 set on July 15.
The British pound bought $1.8980, compared with $1.8997 the night before, while the dollar bought ¥108.93, down from ¥109.40 late Tuesday in New York.
The U.S. Commerce Department said Tuesday the trade deficit shrank in June and exports rose to a record high, as a historically weaker dollar helped spark the rise in exports abroad.
Oil prices also traded above $113 a barrel Wednesday in electronic trading ahead of a U.S. Energy Department weekly oil and gasoline inventory that may show further evidence of declining crude demand in the U.S. The weaker dollar of months past drove investors to oil which drove up the commodity's price.[more]
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/13/markets/dollar.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008081306
 
NOT GOOD my friends!:mad:

Oil rallies on drain in supplies

Crude up more than $2 a barrel after surprise drop in crude inventory and bigger-than-expected gasoline drawdown

By Kenneth Musante, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: August 13, 2008: 10:44 AM EDT

crude.bc.gif


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices soared Wednesday after the government reported more weakness in the nation's petroleum inventories than expected.
U.S. crude for September delivery rose $2.52 to $115.53 a barrel in electronic trading. Oil had traded up 88 cents to $113.89 a barrel just before the report's release.
The Energy Department said crude stocks fell by 400,000 barrels during the week ended Aug. 8. The report also said gasoline supplies fell by 6.4 million barrels, while distillates, which are used to make diesel fuel, fell by 1.7 million barrels.
Economists polled by Platts, a division of McGraw Hill Cos., had expected the government to report a 500,000 barrel rise in crude stocks, a 2.2 million barrel decline in gasoline stockpiles, and a rise in distillates of 1.9 million barrels.
Concerns that high fuel prices are cutting into demand have sent crude prices sharply lower in recent weeks. The larger-than-expected decline in supplies suggested that demand may not have been as low as many investors had thought. http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/13/markets/oil/index.htm?postversion=2008081310
 
Oil prices soared Wednesday after the government reported more weakness in the nation's petroleum inventories than expected.
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but...but...
luv2read said:
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in June as the biggest jump in exports in more than four years overcame record imports of petroleum
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Record imports as price skyrockets and demand drops? Why would there be higher imports under those circumstances - who would import something at an inflated price when demand for it is dropping - unless they anticipate selling it at an even higher price later? Can you say....SPECULATORS?
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So where did it go? Again....can you say....SPECULATORS? Who has the facilities to store it? Hmmmm?:mad:
 
nnuut said:
This guy thinks Oil will drop to $80 a barrel on the rising dollar.:D
javascript:bringupPlayer(%22vid=vFVQS6rchxvE%22,%22av%22,encodeURIComponent(%22Gartman Sees Crude Oil Falling to $80 on Stronger Dollar%22))
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What kind of link is that?....:D:cheesy:
 
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Straflaginminster!
no I can't be quiet, and am a slow learner!
Ok who did the good deed?:confused:

Oil keeps rising on supply drop

Crude prices approach $117 a barrel after bigger-than-expected drop in gas stockpiles.

Last Updated: August 14, 2008: 4:16 AM EDT

Special Reportfull coverage

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices rose for a second day Thursday in Asia, approaching $117 a barrel after U.S. gasoline supplies fell more than expected in a weekly government report.
U.S. crude for September delivery rose 75 cents to $116.75 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract jumped $2.99 overnight to settle at $116 a barrel.
"It's the first bright news for traders in the oil market in a while," said Gavin Wendt, head of mining and resources research at Fat Prophets in Sydney. "The dramatic drop-off in commodities, and specifically oil, has been well overdone in my view."
Before the stockpile report, September Nymex crude touched a low of $112.87 on Wednesday, more than $34 below its July 11 high of $147.27.
Later, in its weekly inventory report, the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said gasoline supplies fell by 6.4 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 8, nearly three times more than the 2.2 million barrel drop expected by analysts surveyed by energy research firm Platts.
The EIA said crude stockpiles fell 400,000 barrels last week against analyst expectations of a 500,000 barrel increase. Inventories of distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, decreased by 1.7 million barrels; analysts had expected distillate stocks to rise by 1.9 million barrels.
Mixing the picture, though, the EIA also said demand for gasoline over the four weeks ended Aug. 8 was almost 2% lower than a year earlier, averaging 9.4 million barrels a day.
But Wendt, who expects oil prices to test $150 a barrel by the end of this year, said U.S. investors have overestimated the impact a slowdown in the U.S. economy will have on global demand for crude.
"They still think the U.S. is the epicenter of the world economy," Wendt said. "The U.S. is still very important, but as far as commodity demand is concerned, the U.S. isn't the main game in town. China is the biggest consumer, and increasingly India."
In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 1.36 cents to $3.1453 a gallon while gasoline prices gained 1.97 cents to $2.952 a gallon. Natural gas futures rose 4.4 cents to $8.50 per 1,000 cubic feet.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/14/markets/oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008081404
 
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With NYMEX Crude being at $116, it looks like the "GREEN" futures market
is a fake and the market could have a tough go of it. Unless we get some
thing considered a catalyst to the good ! Maybe Earnings or Economics ? :confused:
 
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