Oil Slick Stuff

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Nnuut,
Sometime back, someone posted how much it cost to extract a barrel of oil and then the other costs/profits before it got into your gas tank. If you see that article, save it for me please!
Rgds
Spaf
 
Phew! Watch out for the Himacane!
Close $74.91 a barrel
08/01/2006 - Updated 3:26 PM ET
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Crude gains on storm concerns, Mideast conflict Valero fuels concern over refinery output as it details outages at its facilities
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</IMG>By Mark Cotton, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil prices ended higher for a second day Tuesday on concern a tropical storm brewing in the Caribbean could hurt refinery output, and after Valero Energy Corp. said it was carrying out maintenance at some of its facilities.
http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=Commodities&guid=%7BA4827A54%2D36BF%2D449F%2D9CDF%2DCF690D9C021D%7D
 
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The current projected path for tropical storm Chris has moved a little south since this morning. By the current maps, it will pass through the straights of Florida and into the Gulf. Since the gulf is a bathtub, it will intensify, possibly considerably. Within a day or so, fear for the oil infrastructure should drive markets down, regardless of what ultimately happens. If it subsequently tracks away from the oil patch, a relief rally is possible.

While I have been mauled lately trying to time the world and its ways, the storm may be playable enough that I can't resist.
 
Not True

The Gulf is not a bathtub. Last year it was a bathtub. This year is it cooler. Plus the large scale environment there is hostile for intensification. I doubt that Chris will become a major hurricane if it enters the Gulf.

I left work this morning at 800 AM with a tropical storm over Andros Island on the 72 hour prog chart, headed generally north. That d(prog)/dt should trend left makes sense. My feeling is that Yucatan/Belize is the eventual landfall.

Nnuutt will recall I pointed out the existence of this storm last Friday. Since then it has gone as it should including market awareness. Over the next couple of days there may be a relief rally for us as oil prices dip back to their equilibrium level, after the storm scare wears off.

In sum, Chris is probably a minor player. I hope so, anyway.

Dave
 
Gulf surface temps - NOAA chart

The gulf water surface temperatures have gotten quite warm the last couple weeks.

I remember hurricane Andrew was on a similar path in August and went from a tropical storm to category 5 in 2 days. It was truely incredible. It seemed like all of a sudden there was a category 5 hurricane headed for Miami. I'm not saying the same will be true for Chris, but there has been plenty of energy to create a monster the last couple weeks.

I'm going to watch this one closely. And, yes Dave, I was surprised you mentioned Chris when it was still a tropical wave. You were well out in front on this storm. I guess being a meterorologist in the Keys makes you keep a close eye.
 
Oil Prices Rise As Traders Watch Caribbean Storm, Mideast Fighting
SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Wednesday as traders nervously watched a tropical storm in the Caribbean and the fighting in the Middle East, fearing supply threats. Light sweet crude for September delivery was up 40 cents to US$75.31 a barrel in midmorning Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Tropical Storm Chris has formed near the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean, raising traders' fears that it could strengthen and damage oil platforms and refineries along the Gulf Coast. And in the Middle East, there were few signs of a quick resolution to the escalating conflict. Last week's disruption in oil supply in Nigeria was also a factor in the prices.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060801/oil_prices.html?.v=13
 
Senate approves more offshore drilling
WASHINGTON — The Senate voted Tuesday to open 8.3 million acres of federal waters in the central Gulf of Mexico to oil and gas drilling, setting up a confrontation with the House which wants even more drilling in waters now off-limits. Supporters said the measure would be a major step toward producing more domestic energy and forcing down natural gas prices that have soared in recent years. The Senate approved the measure by a vote of 71-25. It now must be reconciled with much broader drilling legislation passed by the House in June. Those negotiations are likely to begin in September.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-01-offshore-drilling_x.htm
 
Greater than $75 is not good! :mad: Himacane Chris!!! Hummmmm? You never know what those things will do, kind of like the Market, nobody really knows!:confused: Batten down the hatches, just in case.
$75.65 a barrel

Oil prices rose, with U.S. light crude up 74 cents to $75.65 a barrel in electronic trading and Brent crude traded in London up 49 cents to $76.38 ahead of the Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory report at 10:30 a.m. ET.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/02/markets/stockswatch/index.htm
 
The Next Morning...

Well, today when I left work at 800 AM there was a minimal Cat 1 hurricane right on top of me on the prog chart for Sunday/Monday. That puts me in the safest place -- we know for sure that is where it will not be. The track shifted about 150 nautical miles.

I'm not too sure about the southern track toward Mexico, anymore. So let's say it goes along the north Cuban coast. That will keep it from intensifying. Meantime, tomorrow I'm buying gasoline for the generator, heh. (We have a lot of dead wood still on the stump down here, from last year.)

Dave
 
Chris has his sights on KW, and is ready to pull the trigger!! :( I hate Hurricanes!:mad: The eye of Hurricane Hugo went right over my house in Charleston in 1989, It was just great! Yeah, right!
 
Hurricflation!:D
$75.81 a barrel

08/02/2006 - Updated 3:29 PM ET
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Hurricane concerns lift crude to two-week highHot weather stokes nat-gas gains; smaller-than-expected gasoline supply drop
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</IMG>By Mark Cotton, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil prices ended at their highest level in over two weeks as the positive impact of a smaller-than-expected decline in gasoline inventories was dwarfed by concern a potential hurricane in the Caribbean may pose a threat to oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico.
http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=Commodities&guid=%7BE459905E%2D8E7B%2D4A69%2DB17C%2DF19A2042B0FD%7D
 
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Slacking off a little, Shear wind gave Chris a haircut!:D
$75.05 a barrel, still ovet $75.:mad:

08/03/2006 - Updated 8:38 AM ET
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Crude retreats after storm threat diminishesTropical Storm Chris weakens overnight; natural-gas inventories data on tap
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</IMG>By Mark Cotton, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Crude prices fell in early trading Thursday after Tropical Storm Chris weakened overnight easing concerns about a potential threat to oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico, with natural gas likely to be a focus later in the session as traders await weekly supply data.
http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=Commodities&guid=%7B46B70280%2D39E6%2D4113%2DA8C2%2DC4702C0D8F77%7D
 
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Lower, ?
$75.46 a barrel
08/03/2006 - Updated 3:32 PM ET
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Crude retreats after storm loses strengthNatural-gas prices retreat after latest data shows build in inventories
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</IMG>By Mark Cotton, MarketWatchNEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude prices ended lower Thursday after Tropical Storm Chris weakened and eased concerns about a potential threat to oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico.
http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=Commodities&guid=%7B46B70280%2D39E6%2D4113%2DA8C2%2DC4702C0D8F77%7D
 
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Comon down below $75.00 big boy!
$75.02 a barrel

08/04/2006 - Updated 8:35 AM ET
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Crude falls as storm fears abateTropical storm downgraded to a depression; Mideast stays in focus
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</IMG>By Mark Cotton, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell Friday as fears of potential damage to Gulf of Mexico energy installations abated after Tropical Storm Chris was downgraded to a depression, but nervousness about conflict in the Middle East heading into the weekend could make for choppy trading.
Crude for September delivery was last down 44 cents at $75.02 a barrel in electronic trading. Gasoline futures fell 1.04 cents to $2.283 a gallon, while heating oil futures dropped 1.54 cents to $2.098 a gallon. http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=Commodities&guid=%7B1EF09E65%2D4C69%2D4624%2DB227%2D65B4562A1470%7D
 
$75.10 a barrel
08/04/2006 - Updated 11:06
AM ET Crude edges lower as storm fears abate Tropical storm downgraded to a depression; Mideast remains in focus
By Mark Cotton, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) --
Crude-oil futures edged lower Friday as fears of damage to Gulf of Mexico energy installations receded after Tropical Storm Chris was downgraded to a depression, but nervousness about the conflict in the Middle East has put a floor under declines. Crude for September delivery was down 36 cents at $75.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=Commodities&guid=%7B1EF09E65%2D4C69%2D4624%2DB227%2D65B4562A1470%7D
 
Man-o-man!
$74.30 a barrel

08/04/2006 - Updated 1:49 PM ET
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Crude at four-session low, under $75 a barrelTropical storm downgraded to a depression; crude still looking at weekly gain
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</IMG>By Mark Cotton, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude prices fell further in afternoon trading Friday as fears of damage to Gulf of Mexico energy installations receded after Tropical Storm Chris was downgraded to a depression, but oil is still looking at a small gain for the week as nervousness over the Middle East conflict lent support.
Crude for September delivery was down $1.21 at $74.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. At this level, the front-month contract is looking at a weekly gain of 1.4%.
http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=Commodities&guid=%7B1EF09E65%2D4C69%2D4624%2DB227%2D65B4562A1470%7D
 
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