Really?:nuts:..you know this How?...My God man!!!!!..what the hell are you sitting around for?..You need to Call BP and the Coast Guard and all the Scientists on the project, and, and OBAMA.. and tell them to halt and not try this or even attempt it..because,
YOU know there is too much pressure and it wont' work...And to go ahead with drilling relief wells instead, that will take three more months (maybe)..even though they have drilled one already and they are 2/3 of the way there...But YOU say 2 to 3 wells will be needed....you are incredible
Yes Buster, I'm a pretty smart guy. Not a brilliant one, but smart enough to know to get facts- and I do try to learn, get real data, and analyze data rapidly.
I do that based on a lot of years of taking little bits of data, and putting together the clues, to figure out what the h-e-double-tooth-picks is going on. Detective work, if you will.
Sherlock Holmes author Arthur Conan Doyle put it best.
He said: "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.”
You go ahead and think what you will.
For me, I've picked up enough little pieces out of the news, out of the scientists reports, out of the mechanical data that is floating up, out of the Congressional testimony, to recognize this-
It is going to be a very, very bad deal, for a LONG time to come.
I give the "cut and cap" about a 10% chance of success. I would love to give it higher probability- but the pressure in the well continues to make me think it simply is impossible to do it that way. And once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, whatever remains is...the truth.
"cut and cap" isn't going to work, because we're still looking at huge pressures in the pipe. that' s why "topkill" didn't work. I WISH cut and cap would work. By all means, give it a try, because it isn't going to change the fact that they will need to try to do the second/third well thing to intercept the well far below, and divert the pressure that way. "cut and cap" does nothing adverse to that need, and will at least keep some people busy giving it a try while they work on the real solution- which won't actually come to fruition until, let's say- August 10 to 20th. You can quote me on that- Look for an attempt to tap the main well with a second one in the second or third week of August. That MIGHT work.
I give the second and third relief wells a bit better chance- but still no higher than 50=50 at best. Based on all the little tidbits of data I have been able to absorb.
It's not that I know everything about drilling oil, Buster. I don't.
But I can read.
And learn. and search out the truth.
We'll see.