For Lower Gas Prices...Thank Ukraine

FireWeatherMet

Well-known member
Oil-Chart.jpg

The price of oil, and invariably the price of gas at US pumps had been on a steady rise at an unusual time, late winter thru early spring.
Experts blamed most of this on Ukraine's new strategy of attacking Russian oil refineries, and since March, Ukrainian long-range drones and missiles have destroyed about 20% of Russia's refineries.
Russia immediately stopped all exports of refined oil, to countries still buying Russian oil (China, India and a few others).
The markets initial reaction was for the price of crude oil to rise, about 15% in several weeks, resulting in higher prices at the pumps everywhere, including here in the US.
Even the Biden Administration, strong supporters of Ukraines fight against the Russian invasion, were asking Ukrainian officials to stop attacking Russia's refineries, worried that rising oil prices would continue, and start spiking inflation ahead of the election.

But after a few weeks, the markets figured out the actual ramifications and the price of crude began to fall sharply...as did prices of gasoline at the pumps...and here's why.
Russia's GDP is mostly from Oil and Natural Gas. The US has already replaced Russian Natural Gas to most of Europe, as well as oil.
Russia thus has needed to sell more oil/gas to China, India and South America, but cannot fill the void of losing the European market.
With Refining capacity down 20% Russia can no longer fuel its war effort and supply its own population with refined gasoline and diesel, so Russia has resorted to shipping extra crude oil from its wells to neighboring friendly ex Soviet countries like Kazakhstan, Usbekistan, Belarus, and have it refined there, then have that refined fuel shipped back to Russia for its internal consumption.
The cost of importing this refined oil back into Russia, something Russia has never needed to do before, requires Russia to sell EVEN MORE CRUDE OIL OVERSEAS TO MAKE UP THE COST.

This increased flooding of crude oil on the global market, is now sending the price of oil (and gasoline at the pumps) down steadily the past few weeks, at a time that pump prices typically rise as we approach Memorial Day Weekend.
Gasoline prices have fallen 30-40 cents/gal the past 4 weeks, and some experts are predicting prices could fall another 20-30 cents/gal by July 4th....AS LONG AS UKRAINE KEEPS HUNTING RUSSIAN REFINERIES, FORCING RUSSIA TO EXPORT MORE CRUDE SO OTHER COUNTRIES CAN REFINE IT AND SEND IT BACK TO RUSSIA.

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