Tried to catch a little pop in bonds today but I'm not too crazy about the AGG and the changes they've implemented in holdings. Hopefully Bernanke doesn't overexaggerate negatives and I keep the few cents. The fall of the dollar and Bank of Canada's 1/4 rise in rates troubles me. We may well see a rate hike before the end of the year. So I'm back to safety. I see US market upside only on earnings after today and there aren't any companies I respect declaring tomorrow. Thursday might be worth getting back in with GE on Friday and the heavyweights early next week.
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Offtrack's Account Talk
- Thread starter EW_ret
- Start date
I'm getting cautious again. Markets have room to grow but I'm not pleased that the markets seem to be responding more to technicals and psychology then fundamentals. After watching Bernanke today, it also troubles me how little respect he has been accorded from the Senate banking committee. I'm not sure whether it is political posturing for constituents or real but the relationship between this Fed chairman and congress doesn't inspire as much confidence as that between Greenspan and Congress. And I don't see Bernanke making any mistakes. It just seems he doesn't command as much respect. I wonder if he'll be there after the next election.
Seems like the market is flirting with a correction. Dollar woes, tightening credit, slowing economy, high priced stocks, $100 billion in credit losses floating around somewhere--- and from what I see watching the daily tickers, there is way too much speculation happening. SIRI, a stock I started playing in and out of just for action was one of the only 2 stocks I owned that showed a profit middday Friday. It's pure speculative garbage IMO. Personally, I'd like to see a 10-15% correction to stabilize things but who knows when that will happen. Market may move on AMZN and AAPL tomorrow and Thursday and both report after hours. Could be big gains next two days but I'll sit back. Ahh heck maybe venture 10% in in I
Missed the bounce that occurred yesterday and I'm back out. Consumer confidence high is a plus but Chicago PMI was soft. ISM tomorrow. New lows still way above new highs in US markets. Watching the ticker I still see more speculative action than I'd like. I may well miss this gain as well but i'd like another test of lows and am still looking for the 10% correction in a jittery market that can go either way.
I'm off on a trip over the next week. I'll check in if I have wi-fi access. Market inspires no confidence at this time and I'd continue to stay out till a full 10% correction takes place. Just watching the ups and downs yesterday was enough to give me motion sickness. That little rush at the end sure seems deceiving when loooking at the following.
http://finance.yahoo.com/advances
Fundamentally, thinngs still look a bit negative and I'd be cautious.
http://finance.yahoo.com/advances
Fundamentally, thinngs still look a bit negative and I'd be cautious.
On the road and not paying full attention to markets. I would have expected a rise in markets today but American Home bankruptcy may keep this day down, leaving me questionable on what to do today for tomorrow. Everything depends on FOMC. Will Bernanke be able to put forth a confident, positive spin to the economy and will the markets buy it? I doubt there will be a shift in rates at this time. I'll slip a few per cent in on wishful thinking. 10% to C for a little bounce but I'm expecting at least a 10% correction and hoping for a 15-18% to clear the way for a strong run through next year.
Strictly gambling today. The global liquidity infusion should hold dollar afloat rather than having it further sink if the Fed were bearing credit tightening alone Don't know what to make of the ECB/Fed trade with no solid figures but I'm hoping these manipulations will postpone troubles for another day. :cheesy: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={979B396A-3738-4EEC-8376-3630883C60A9}
Retail and business inventories were ok. I'm looking for a decent late Aug. early Sept in consumer spending. Eventually things are going to get very tight but for now let's play volatility.
Retail and business inventories were ok. I'm looking for a decent late Aug. early Sept in consumer spending. Eventually things are going to get very tight but for now let's play volatility.
Last few days show why you shouldn't gamble 
I expected continued infusions of fluidity and the central banks eased off. The Fed actually reduced its normal infusions after the big pumps of $24B and $38B last Thurs and FRi
$2B Mon---$0B Tue--$12B Wed---$17B today We're getting a little help today after below normal Mon and Tues and normal Weds, but l certainly got sucked in after those infusions last week. Now I'm taking a hit for past few days and have to decide for tomorrow and next week. I'll give it some thought but basically I'm dart throwing.
I expected continued infusions of fluidity and the central banks eased off. The Fed actually reduced its normal infusions after the big pumps of $24B and $38B last Thurs and FRi$2B Mon---$0B Tue--$12B Wed---$17B today We're getting a little help today after below normal Mon and Tues and normal Weds, but l certainly got sucked in after those infusions last week. Now I'm taking a hit for past few days and have to decide for tomorrow and next week. I'll give it some thought but basically I'm dart throwing.
I didn't expect that bad of a jobs report. Plus $70B in liquidity injections saved market freefall yesterday . Today the the jobs report drops the markets 1-2%. Meantime dollar drops blow 80. S&P recovered before 1450 but it isn't moving higher very fast. I moved a 10% into C and S on wishful thinking but this is not a market to inspire confidence. We could be headed down. I was surprised not to see more discussion on Greenspan's comments. Guess I'll start a thread.
Liquidity was pumped in and the markets moved but from what I see this is one tough market to play with any moral comfort. I would much prefer to see the markets play out without intervention. It doesn't do me any good to increase my account with worthless money.
80% G, 20% F, Cob 9/13
80% G, 20% F, Cob 9/13
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