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Investment Paradigm Shifts

Even as investment managers have grown more conservative, the giant swathe of the world labeled "emerging markets" is graduating to the big league, fundamentally changing the calculation of risk in portfolios. (Wall Street Journal)
 
Submitted an Interfund Transfer request earlier today to reflect the following:

G - 5%
F - 5%
C - 40%
S - 15%
I - 30%

Future contribution allocations also changed to reflect the same percentages.
 
OBGibby,

Those were some nice reads to warm the hoofhearted. I read my WSJ this morning about Paulson and I always appreciate David Dreman. If you come across anything else that's remotely on the bullish tint, please share. You'll make money next week by showing the courage required to put it on the line and participate.
 
Birchtree said:
OBGibby,

Those were some nice reads to warm the hoofhearted. I read my WSJ this morning about Paulson and I always appreciate David Dreman. If you come across anything else that's remotely on the bullish tint, please share. You'll make money next week by showing the courage required to put it on the line and participate.
Click to expand...


Birchtree,



I'm still in it for the long-haul, but figured moving 10% from stocks to the G/F funds would allow for some spending money further down the road. Bullish at heart, and still have plenty of time until I think I'll need to start using my TSP funds. Ups and downs don't trouble me at this stage of my life - just want to grab as many shares now as I can while they're cheap.
 
Hard to believe it's November already...Time flies when it's a good year and you're making some paper profits...
 
Investing Lessons of a Wild Year

This year's stock market events provide important lessons for investors about the basics of investing, no matter what direction the markets take into 2010 and beyond. (Wall Street Journal)


Against this backdrop, here are some key lessons to take away from the wild ride that's been 2009:

1 Stocks-for-the-Long-Run Is Dead

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 8% from where it was 10 years ago, investors are questioning the idea that they shouldn't react to the market's shorter-term ups and downs. It's not a question of buying and selling stocks like a day trader, but rather being flexible with an investment mix based on a long-term plan........

2 Stocks-for-the-Long-Run Is Alive

Stock investors may still be licking their wounds, but the basic reason for owning stocks hasn't changed: Over the long term, they can be an effective way to grow a portfolio........

3 Don't Fight the Fed

It's an old trader's adage that when the Federal Reserve starts making changes, investors ignore that news at their peril........

4 Buy Fire Insurance

Most people have home insurance, car insurance and life insurance. Very few have portfolio insurance........


More at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125702415622320915.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond
 
Rebalance Your Investments -- Now (Wall Street Journal)


............Given the remarkable run in share prices, prudent, long-term investors should consider rebalancing their holdings to lock in gains and return their portfolios to a more diverse position. Advisers usually tell investors they should do this at the start of each year. But the highly volatile nature of the past few years, coupled with the huge gains in stocks since March, argue for a modestly more-aggressive approach to rebalancing............

More at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125702781322921007.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond
 
OBGibby said:
Supply-Side Ideas, Turned Upside Down

The Obama health plan would discourage taxpayers from working to their full potential by making their efforts less rewarding, N. Gregory Mankiw says. (The New York Times)
Click to expand...


Additional commentary from the author above:

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Disincentives from Health Reform


Here is my column in tomorrow's NY Times about the marginal tax rates implicit in the health reform bill making its ways through Congress. Let me add a few additional observations on the topic.

1. Here are the CBO numbers on which the article is based. Unfortunately, the Times did not run the table of implicit marginal tax rates that I gave them based on the CBO numbers. But the example I used in the piece (an implicit tax rate of 23 percent) is representative. For lower income levels, the implicit marginal tax rate is even higher. Between $42,000 and $54,000, the implicit marginal tax rate from health reform is 34 percent.

2. When CBO estimates the budgetary cost of such bills, it holds GDP constant. If you think (as I do) that large increases in marginal tax rates tend to depress labor effort and thus GDP, then you should be wary of claims based on CBO scores that the health reform bill is deficit neutral. Lower GDP will mean lower tax revenue and thus a larger budget deficit.............................

More at http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/10/marginal-tax-hikes-from-health-reform.html
 
According to my tsp.gov online account, my 'Personal Investment Performance' (PIP) for the twelve months ending October 31, 2009, was up 18.69%.

Previous 12 Months Ending:

May 31, 2009 -27.15%
Jun 30, 2009 -21.34%
Jul 30, 2009 -12.23%
Aug 31, 2009 -8.27%
Sep 30, 2009 +4.27%
Oct 31, 2009 +18.69%
 
In Fund Flows, a Caution for Stocks

By MARK HULBERT

The skepticism of mutual fund investors during Wall Street’s rally suggests that stocks aren’t entering a bull market. (New York Times)


.....MUTUAL fund investors have remained skeptical about the stock market rally over the last eight months, holding back on their purchases of domestic equity funds. That isn’t a promising sign for the stock market.

If the money flow isn’t reversed soon, it would suggest that we are witnessing a so-called cyclical rally within a long-term bear market in stocks, not the start of a major bull market.

Investors’ recent behavior has been unusual. They typically add money to stock mutual funds as the market rises and withdraw money as it declines. During the bull market of 2002 to 2007, for example, there was a net inflow of more than $250 billion into domestic equity funds, according to the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund industry trade group. When stocks fell from October 2007 to March 2009 in a bear market, there was a net outflow of nearly $200 billion.

Over the last eight months, however, investors have veered sharply from this historical pattern.....

More at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/08/business/economy/08stra.html?ref=business
 
This 2010 Buick Lacrosse looks like a great car. I don't anticiapte being in the market for a new car for another 18-24 months, but this one is already near the top of my wish list. Good job, GM. It looks like a winner to me. Great looking car.

http://www.buick.com/lacrosse/2010/
 
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