OBGibby's Account Talk

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As a renegade contrarian investor I'm currently entering the arena of leverage myself. I've started using a margin account which typically allows me to purchase stocks without having to sell something else to raise cash to spend. I have the resources garnered over many years to provide the necessary collateral and now is my time to maximize any potential that comes my way - like a significant bull market.
 
That was a nice article from Kiplinger - thanx. The question was asked: "How many do it yourselfers would have the fortitude to stick with their strategy after a loss like that (2008)." Answer: me. And I'm sure glad I did. It's hard enough doing the schedule D as it is being a buy and holder with minimum sales - I had like nineteen sales last year. Just think what these timers have to go through in an out side account.
 
Birchtree said:
As a renegade contrarian investor I'm currently entering the arena of leverage myself. I've started using a margin account which typically allows me to purchase stocks without having to sell something else to raise cash to spend. I have the resources garnered over many years to provide the necessary collateral and now is my time to maximize any potential that comes my way - like a significant bull market.
Click to expand...


I'm assuming the main difference between you and the numbskulls at LTCM, and the rest of their latter-day ilk at Lehman, Merrill, Bear Stearns, etc., is that you're basically leveraged at a 1-1 ratio (on your capital), whereas LTCM was leveraged at times as much as 100-1. Bear and Lehman approached 50-1 leverage ratios, often with capital raised from others. Your skin is in the game and appropriately acts as a responsible counter to foolish strategies and execution.

I wish you all the luck, Birchtree, and in my short association with this MB have come to look forward to your comments and analysis. I'm slowly but steadily accumulating as many shares as I can now. While I'm loving every minute of the recent strength of the market (mainly just to see the doom and gloomers pull some new reason for their stance out of the hat along with the rabbit), quite frankly I wouldn't mind a few more years of depressed C, S and I share prices. I much prefer buying cheap.
 
Make Money, Whatever Happens

By Mark Gongloff
The Wall Street Journal
July 26, 2009

Some investors rely purely on mathematics when deciding which stocks to buy or investments to make. But many investors make those decisions relying to a considerable degree on imagination and faith, too.

These "story" investors envision a future path for the world, sometimes improbable, build a case for it, and then think, "How can I make money on that?"

Here are five such broad scenarios that many investors are considering today, at a moment when the economy and financial markets seem to be at a key transition point, from recession to uncertain recovery.

Some of these scenarios are in competition with each other, but all have their adherents, and all present opportunities.


1 The Jobless Recovery
2 V-Shaped Recovery
3 Hyperinflation
4 Deflationary Spiral
5 Decoupling Is Real............................................

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124856957170681503.html
 
Hardy Capitalism and a New Bull Market - Larry Kudlow, RealClearMarkets


Let's call this what it is: A new bull market in stocks has emerged from the ashes of the financial meltdown and the deep recession that followed. And it's signaling the onset of economic recovery. Free-market capitalism is more durable, resilient, and self-correcting than its detractors would have us believe..........

.........This is a new bull.....

.......investment guru Vince Farrell says there's $11 trillion sitting on the sidelines in money-market and other short-term balances......

......When markets in China plunged 7 percent earlier this week, U.S. stocks could have followed suit. But they held their own. It was a big show of bull-market strength......

........Does this bull have long legs? Historically, bull markets last an average of 17 months, and this bull should run well into next spring. And judging from the breathtaking decline in LIBOR rates, the TED spread (between LIBOR and Treasury bills), and corporate-bond spreads relative to Treasuries, I believe there's another 20 percent upside to the bull. That would return us to the pre-Lehman levels of August 2008, with the S&P above 1,100 and the Dow at 11,000......

......My guess is the economy will grow by 3 percent annually or slightly more in the second half of 2009 and the first part of 2010......

.........this is much more than a summer rally. It's a new bull market heralding a new economic recovery. Free-market capitalism is trying hard to push back against Obama's central-planning.
The bears will lose this round.
 
According to my tsp.gov online account, my 'Personal Investment Performance' (PIP) for the twelve months ending July 31, 2009, was down 12.23%.

Previous 12 Months Ending:

May 31, 2009 -27.15%
Jun 30, 2009 -21.34%
Jul 30, 2009 -12.23%
 
No Quick Recovery for Home Prices

The widely watched Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 major markets suggests that housing prices may be bottoming out, but there are no indications that prices will return to precrash levels anytime soon. (Wall Street Journal)




The New American Dream: Renting

It's time to accept that home ownership is not a realistic goal for many people and to curtail the enormous government programs fueling this ambition, writes Thomas J. Sugrue. (Wall Street Journal)
 
And the Left thought George W. Bush was a dummy?


If George W. Bush had made a joke at the expense of the Special
Olympics, would you have approved?

If George W. Bush had given Gordon Brown a set of inexpensive and
incorrectly formatted DVDs, when Gordon Brown had given him a
thoughtful and historically significant gift, would you have approved?

If George W. Bush had given the Queen of England an iPod containing
videos of his speeches, would you have thought this embarrassingly
narcissistic and tacky?

If George W. Bush had bowed to the King of Saudi Arabia, would you have
approved?

If George W. Bush had visited Austria and made reference to the
nonexistent "Austrian language," would you have brushed it off as a
minor slip?

If George W. Bush had filled his cabinet and circle of advisers with
people who cannot seem to keep current on their income taxes, would you
have approved?

If George W. Bush had been so Spanish illiterate as to refer to "Cinco
de Cuatro" in front of the Mexican ambassador when it was the fourth of
May (Cuatro de Mayo), and continued to flub it when he tried again,
would you have winced in embarrassment?

If George W. Bush had misspelled the word advice would you have
hammered him for it for years like Dan Quayle and potatoe as "proof" of
what a dunce he is?

If George W. Bush had burned 9,000 gallons of jet fuel to go plant a
single tree on "Earth Day", would you have concluded he's a hypocrite?

If George W. Bush's administration had okayed Air Force One flying low
over millions of people followed by a jet fighter in downtown Manhattan
causing widespread panic, would you have wondered whether they
actually "get" what happened on 9-11?

If George W. Bush had been the first President to need a teleprompter
installed to be able to get through a press conference, would you have
laughed and said this is more proof of how inept he is on his own and is
really controlled by smarter men behind the scenes?

If George W. Bush had failed to send relief aid to flood victims
throughout the Midwest with more people killed or made homeless than in
New Orleans , would you want it made into a major ongoing political
issue with claims of racism and incompetence?

If George W. Bush had ordered the firing of the CEO of a major
corporation, even though he had no constitutional authority to do so,
would you have approved?

If George W. Bush had proposed to double the national debt, which had
taken more than two centuries to accumulate, in one year, would you
have approved?

If George W. Bush had then proposed to double the debt again 10 times
within years, would you have approved?

If George W. Bush had reduced your retirement plan's holdings of GM
stock by 90% and given the unions a majority stake in GM, would you
have approved?

If George W. Bush had spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to take
Laura Bush to a play in NYC, would you have approved ?

So, tell me again, what is it about Obama that makes him so brilliant
and impressive? Can't think of anything? Don't worry. He's done all
the above in just 5 months -- so be patient -- you've still got three
years and seven months to come up with an answer.

(Source: Going viral via email)
 
According to my tsp.gov online account, my 'Personal Investment Performance' (PIP) for the twelve months ending August 31, 2009, was down 8.27%.

Previous 12 Months Ending:

May 31, 2009 -27.15%
Jun 30, 2009 -21.34%
Jul 30, 2009 -12.23%
Aug 31, 2009 -8.27%
 
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