OBGibby's Account Talk

[OBGibby]

Doom? Some See Signs of Pickup

 

[OBGibby]

Victor Davis Hanson: No one is listening to
Obama any more. "Tuning Out a President" 7/15/12

 

[nnuut]

Who?

 

[OBGibby]

IFT at COB today. From 20C/30S/50G to 70G/10C/10S/10I.

 

[OBGibby]

[h=1]Our Ridiculous Approach to Retirement[/h][h=6]By TERESA GHILARDUCCI (New York Times)[/h]

 

[Birchtree]

I'm doing just fine in managing my family resources but then again I've prepared myself over a forty year span. The equity market is still the only place to make any serious money.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I'm doing just fine in managing my family resources but then again I've prepared myself over a forty year span. The equity market is still the only place to make any serious money.

I'll second that. I'm serious! :laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

The problem now is that more and more money continues to follow the fear trade into the bond market with very low interest rate returns. Can 50 million Frenchman be wrong - you bet. Money will return to equities soon that is only common sense. I was around when the 30 year bond was yielding 15% selling around $50 and no one wanted to buy because of the fear of entrenched inflation. Well Volcker created a recession and brought the inflation rate down to 3% from around 10% - guess what happened to that 30 year yield. The bond ended up at $105 actually above par. With a 15% yield locked in some smart money made out like a bandit with bond capital gains. Now you have a yield below 1.40% or there abouts - someone is going to get hurt in this trade. It won't be me - age provides memory.

 

[OBGibby]

According to my tsp.gov online account, my 'Personal Rate of Return' for the twelve months ending July 31, 2012, was up 4.83%.

Personal Rate of Return
2009 +29.86%
2010 +13.31%
2011 -0.74%

January 31, 2012 +3.19%
February 29, 2012 +4.54%
March 31, 2012 +4.81%
April 30, 2012 +0.83%
May 31, 2012 -2.50%
Jun 30, 2012 +3.83
Jul 31, 2012 +4.83%

CURRENT AUTOTRACKER THROUGH July 31, 2012: +8.49%

 

[Handballer]

Wish I had your track record. You have done very well. Thanks for the info.

 

[OBGibby]

Stocks May Move Higher During Dog Days of Summer - Patti Domm, CNBC

 

[OBGibby]

Not sure what to make of this market. Sitting 30% in right now, some trepidation that things could go south in a hurry but less worried than I was a few weeks ago. Originally planned to get out completely in recent weeks, then move back in around the election. Now I'm considering holding my current position and going all in right before a new administration is voted in.

 

[OBGibby]

IFT at COB today. Moved from 70G/10C/10S/10I to 85G/5C/5S/5I.

 

[OBGibby]

I'm not convinced that a potential QE3 and actions by the ECB will be decisive or forthcoming. I'm anticipating September being a down month. Will look over the next 10-14 days of a lot of expectations not being met on those fronts with folks selling off after they've been led to believe help and a European solution were right around the corner. Might be a good opportunity to move more money back into C/S/I for a little while.

Can't help but wonder how high the markets will go once the election puts Romney into the White House and the Senate joins the House under Republican control. The question is, if my guess proves correct regarding the let down in September, do I stay in C/S/I through the election, or do I get out and then back in in November?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Can't help but wonder how high the markets will go once the election puts Romney into the White House and the Senate joins the House under Republican control.

Don't worry about wondering, its not going to happen...

 

[OBGibby]

According to my tsp.gov online account, my 'Personal Rate of Return' for the twelve months ending August 31, 2012, was up 10.72%.

Personal Rate of Return
2009 +29.86%
2010 +13.31%
2011 -0.74%

January 31, 2012 +3.19%
February 29, 2012 +4.54%
March 31, 2012 +4.81%
April 30, 2012 +0.83%
May 31, 2012 -2.50%
Jun 30, 2012 +3.83
Jul 31, 2012 +4.83%
Aug 31, 2012 +10.72%

CURRENT AUTOTRACKER THROUGH August 31, 2012: +9.82%

 

[OBGibby]

According to my tsp.gov online account, my 'Personal Rate of Return' for the twelve months ending September 30, 2012, was up 20.00%.

Personal Rate of Return
2009 +29.86%
2010 +13.31%
2011 -0.74%

January 31, 2012 +3.19%
February 29, 2012 +4.54%
March 31, 2012 +4.81%
April 30, 2012 +0.83%
May 31, 2012 -2.50%
Jun 30, 2012 +3.83
Jul 31, 2012 +4.83%
Aug 31, 2012 +10.72%
Sep 30, 2012 +20.00%

CURRENT AUTOTRACKER THROUGH September 30, 2012: +10.35%

 

[OBGibby]

Is This The Romney Rally? - Macromon, Global Macro Monitor

 

[OBGibby]

Still sitting with 5% in C, 5% in S and 5% in I. I still think the economy/markets are on the precipice of 10-15% correction and certainly don't think Europe is improving enough to warrant their market gains of late. (But then again, my thought don't amount to much when everyone else is buying!) I'm looking for a correction to before I go back in. If tomorrow and Friday take us back down a notch or two I might double my exposure to 30%. Decisions, decisions...

 

[Birchtree]

Housing is finally on the come back trail - I bought many home builders and materials back in 2009. The housing gains will help the economy so buy furniture stocks too.