NSurf9 Account Talk

[nsurf9]

Kinda scary look comparing S&P 500 and VIXY on google finance chart - go back 1 year and 5 years, VIXY looks like its making a very deep bottom and now curving up!
INDEXSP:.INX, vixy

By now, your aware of the disappointing U.S. new jobs report (120k instead of 220k); Spain and Italy's bond problem; and, not so good U.S. earnings outlook that's now at the doorstep. Without looking at Alco and the other first day out earnings announcements - my impression is it doesn't matter.

With May around the corner, this point seems to be good enough to start selling-off.

Fibonacci Retracement S&P levels at 1340, 1290, 1250, 1200 and heaven forbid ~1160. At 1340, the S&P is now just above the first retracement level at 1340 and is showing resistance to further decay. VIXX (S&P short) and VIXY (fear index) both are showing the same resistance to further decline. Technically, VIXY could move much higher.

Watch These Areas for Possible Support


Work just precluded me from IFT to F or G - I hope for good reason and some recovery this afternoon and/or tomorrow.

 

[nsurf9]

Spain and Italy's bond problem

They're proble is both government and banks, not just government as the case in Greece.

Below is a pretty good read.

Warning lights blink as banks in Spain and Italy load up on sovereign debt - The Irish Times - Tue, Apr 10, 2012

 

[DakotaKid]

Dip or a Slip? . . . only next week will tell.

As a note:


I meet with the Rose attorneys next week, Wed. 4/11/12, to start the IFT relief ball rolling!

Any word on how the attorney meeting went?

 

[nsurf9]

Any word on how the attorney meeting went?

I meet with Josh Rose, the Washington DC administrative law trial attorney, yesterday, 4/11/12. I am still gathering my thoughs and want talk the Virginia attorney before posting something of substance on the message board. Right now, I can only say it was a long, uphill walk, and metro ride, back to my car.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I meet with Josh Rose, the Washington DC administrative law trial attorney, yesterday, 4/11/12. I am still gathering my thoughs and want talk the Virginia attorney before posting something of substance on the message board. Right now, I can only say it was a long, uphill walk, and metro ride, back to my car.

Must have been Connecticut Ave, near the zoo?

 

[silversurfer]

Even the longest journey begins with the first step.

 

[nsurf9]

Perhaps a little too much "poor earnings estimates" are baked in, supporting this afternoon's across-the-board rally. I-fund is showing signs of some stochastic spring, compared to S and C, but not much, and the TSP hold-back (est ~.5%) hampers quick in/out of the fund.

But, I'll probably stay in the I fund through this afternoon (maybe some euro/asia pop tomorrow) to see what how jucy, or krispy, things comes out of the 4pm oven.

An up-to-the moment read of market moves/influence (or not).

Decent Earnings Reports Support Higher Open

 

[nsurf9]

Investors are gearing up for a week full of economic and corporate data. Europe will once again be difficult for even U.S. investors to ignore.

Today Sunday Israel announced, "In principle, we are ready to act. "That does not mean that I will now order (air force chief) Ido (Nehushtan) to strike Iran,"

Italy, and especially Spain, continue to look threatning; EU ECB investors saying more than 1T Euros not enough.

US Personal Consumption Mon 8:30am; US ISM Mfg Tues (April) at 10am; ADP Employment and Factory Orders on Wed. Ben the Bernake speaks Wed, after two day Fed conference (he'll say nothing - Fri is the initial estimate on GDP - if lower than 2.6% - look for a "ya'll know I've got an itchy QE finger" statment. Lots of earnings report during the week (current tally is 80% (avg ~60) beating padded-low estimates). Friday, Japan central bank decision to ease monitary policy to push down the value of the yen (I fund factor?); and, US payroll and US Employment rate (April).


Stocks: Earnings, economy and Europe back in focus
By Maureen Farrell@CNNMoneyMarkets April 22, 2012: 10:19 AM ET
Stocks: Earnings, economy and Europe back in focus - Apr. 22, 2012

Glad I'm stuck here on this lovely lilly-pad. Oh, fresh out of IFTs, then could you just pass me another fly, please.

 

[CrabClaw]

hey,
Im curious how the meeting with the attorneys went?
Thanks for all you do.

 

[DakotaKid]

Is this being discussed somewhere else on the forum perhaps?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

hey,
Im curious how the meeting with the attorneys went?
Thanks for all you do.

Is this being discussed somewhere else on the forum perhaps?

Yes

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-news/10171-my-money-our-tsp-fund-2008-tsp-ift-rule-post359418.html

 

[nsurf9]

Yes

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-news/10171-my-money-our-tsp-fund-2008-tsp-ift-rule-post359418.html

Look in the TSP News section of the forum - see the My money, our TSP, and the 2008 IFT rule for more on this topic.

You are invited to share your thoughts and insite for all our benefit - that will keep the "My money, our TSP" thread in view on the update list.

If you still really want a 4pm transfer deadline; unrestricted transfers; and, the ability to effectively and proactively manage your retirement investment – I believe it is still possible - even against a very high hurdle presented by TSP rulemaking authority. To get Josh Rose, Esq. to thoroughly examine the law and write a lawyerly type “memorandum of law” on the matter, at 65 commitments, $2500 comes down to about $38.46 each.

My impression from the appointment with Josh Rose and my reading of the pertinent law is that once ETAC consented to the rule change as our representative council, and the 2008 IFT restriction rule was published for the requisite period of time in the Federal Registry, TSP’s legislative rulemaking authority became very strong – and it will likely stand.

Nonetheless, it appears that the soft spot to the 2008 rulemaking restriction isn’t a spot at all, but a window. A window thru TSP to invest your individual funds in a tax deferred retirement vehicle, apart from TSP. Best of all - Congress has already suggested the mutual fund window as an alternative thru the TSP investment structure; and further, even codified it in Title 5 of the United States Code. The catch is that the Code section requires approval of the TSP Board. What a terrific wrinkle for 4-5 thousand unhappy TSP members. The trick here seems not to break down the door with a rule challenge, but slide-open a window that Congress, in its collective wisdom, has already so gracious provided.


For those of us still stuck on the lovely G fund lilly pad, the link below is a good read. Be wary using your prescious IFT - or your may want to use them today 5/1.

Weekly Trade: Look At The Dollar For Direction In The S&P 500 Index (NYSEARCA:UUP, NYSEARCA:UDN, NYSEARCA:SPY, NYSEARCA:SDS, INDEXSP:.INX) | ETF DAILY NEWS

 

[nsurf9]

You gotta read my last post in "My money, our TSP ..." thread - its going to floor you!

 

[nsurf9]

You got to understand this - we are already way-more than half-way there in accomplishing all our goals - unlimited, low cost IFTs; no 12 noon, Eastern Standard deadline. No arduous, costly, years-long, law suit in the U.S. District Court with only questionable likelihood of success. And as icing on a cake - even significantly more investment options.

And lastly, removing all remaining doubts of the TSP rulemaking nay-Sayers - it would not dilute any fund of the TSP or generate any additional cost for any other TSP participant.

- - and we don't even know it!

Let me know if anybody is reading this !!!

 

[pmcint01]

I'm reading this. Congress let them do this over 3 years ago and they still have not decided to implement it. Do you think they ever will?

 

[nsurf9]

How about a big "Like" if you read and like this.

Yes, the last vote was even at the TSP Board (one member was absent); and, at the representative level (some union and representatives disented). Their disent problem was that were afraid that TSP participants generate excessive costs (and, probably encounter excessive restrictions) in a mutual fund window.

A limited self-directed IRS investing in EFTs, (basically the same as the TSP funds of which all federal employees should be familiary) would remove a lot risk associated with investing in an individual stock.

Congress, in its collective wisdom, incorporated the window thru TSP option in the passage of the act. Yes, although the 1986 Fed Retirement Act, Tile 5 and the CFR names the tax deferred retirement vehicle call a mutual fund as the method, under TSPs negotiated rulemaking authority (the Act also requires TSP authorization), a limited, self-directed IRA would do the same thing and permit a many more options to TSP and participants, with few fund inherit prohibitions, restrictions or high cost.

Gregory Long, TSP Executive Director (effectively our TSP plan head manager); and Clifford Dailing, Chairperson of ETAC (our head TSP representative voice) - in effect, the main players of TSP have already stated they are in favor of federal employees' having a window thru the TSP structure as an alternative to the TSP main fund.

 

[Khotso]

"And lastly, removing all remaining doubts of the TSP rulemaking nay-Sayers - it would not dilute any fund of the TSP or generate any additional cost for any other TSP participant.

- - and we don't even know it!

Let me know if anybody is reading this !!!"

Skimmed but haven't had time to review completely. Can you give us the gist in a sentence or two? From my quick scan it sounds like TSP has authority to implement a self-directed IRA component in addition to the standard TSP funds which "they" manage for us (which currently any of us over 59+1/2 can do simply by moving our money out of TSP). Is that correct? The difference being the self-directed IRA would be within the TSP umbrella? So what would cause TSP to implement this component?

 

[nsurf9]

Can you show me a "like" on this? 'Cause, I love it!

Yes, that is correct.

That Congress gave TSP the mandate originating the TSP Agency and retirement fund and also incorporated the window option in the Act, as well as providing TSP's required authorization, it would seem highly likely, under a concensus-based negotiated rulemaking legislative authority, TSP could create a window similary to a mutual fund tax deferred tax retirement vehicle, in a similar limited self-directed IRA - and still not be ultra vires or outside the tenor of its original congressinal mandate.

The limited self-directed IRA tweak very effectively removes the basis of disenting representative vote.

 

[alevin]

I'm not sure I see the advantage of self-directed if limited to mutual funds or ETFs that correspond to TSP index funds. Especially considering mutual fund trading frequency is more limited than what we have now-no more often than 60-90 days or else absorb a 2% hit per trade if move more frequently. and that's for no-load mutual funds, at least in the fund families where I have direct-investment traditional IRA accounts that I've had for many years.

If I'm missing something, sure would appreciate some clarity on the advantages of the window compared to regular self-directed Mutual Fund IRAs or compared to current tsp arrangements.

 

[nsurf9]

This self-directed IRA avoids most all the of pitsfall of a traditional IRA, a mutual fund and the TSP main fund - prohibitions, restrictions and additional fees to reduce systematic costs and investment pool dilution.

In contrast to all of the above, a true self-directed IRA has very few limits as to investment class and can enjoy the same low cost of buying stock thru bargan brokers. Think of buying DWCPF ETF on your own thru AmeriTrade, only with tax deferred money. The fact is, I would prefer that my TSP investment was in an unrestrained self-directed IRA - but I would have to seperate from the Government. At least this way, I wouldn't have to leave the Government and roll my retirement into one to get what we all want.

Requiring some some kind of restaint, however, may be necessary for its TSP rulemaking passage. Make no mistake, it doesn't have to be limited to TSP ETFs.

http://www.fuzeshare.com/entrust/investment_options/