NSurf9 Account Talk

[PessOptimist]

NSurf9, thanks for taking this on.

I have been following this and think there are too many diverse things being talked about. If you go to talk to the "virginia attorneys", what exactly is your proposal going to be? In my experience, if you go talking about a lot of different ideas, the focus gets diluted. Perhaps it is time to come up with a couple of ideas about what we want before talking to attorneys. Maybe this should be on the other thread about our TSP.

My request since I make few IFTs would be to get the deadline for IFTs extended to the US market close.

 

[nsurf9]

PessOptimist, fair enough. Thanks for the questions and concern. Generally, there is no diversity, only an equitable relief of the 2008 IFT restrictions that restores a reasonable degree of pre-2008 control of retirement funds to its participants.

The reason I keep posting on my personal thread is give the effort more exposure. By the end of the next two weeks, I will have seen the Virginia attorney and upon a positive evaluation there, talk to the Rose attorneys in DC and we will then know where our relief of the 2008 IFT restriction stands, once and for all.

There is diversity in how that relief might be crafted, however. I have recieved many valid considerations - a few more IFTs; fees for IFTs; or a later deadline to effect an IFT transfer seem to be a valid canvass.

Additionally, if the Board is in fact unable, or remains unwilling, to allow more IFTs or to calculate the cost of an IFT and is otherwise unwilling to do anything else, beside the current 2 IFTs per month, that, participants be given a choice, instead of being locked into the current IFT restrictions until they reach the age of 59 ½ years old, or have to quit the federal government.

In that case, participants would be able to opt out by way of suggestion of the United States Code Section 5, that already exists, through a window under TSP to a mutual fund; or allow participant’s to roll over the current balance of their TSP funds into an outside IRA, or other tax deferred investment vehicle, leaving the fund open to receive future contributions and matching funds and remain under the 2008 TPS imposed rule.

I did notice you joined TSP Talk in October 2008 and are at a Team TSP level, for which I appreciate. Thus, I know you must appreciate how important a couple of IFTs can be, especially in a volatile market to one’s retirement. I also noticed you have not made any commitment to help fund such an effort. I hope that you might consider supporting this effort, upon a favorable legal review.

 

[PessOptimist]

PessOptimist, fair enough. Thanks for the questions and concern. Generally, there is no diversity, only an equitable relief of the 2008 IFT restrictions that restores a reasonable degree of pre-2008 control of retirement funds to its participants.

Thanks for clarifying that. Part of the question as there has been so much discussion about other things that are desired. So to be clear the goal right now is to try to reverse or modify the 2008 IFT restriction imposed by ?? FRTIB and a change to USC?? See what I mean. The initial goal is getting fogged over by the vapors of and...what if...also...

Let me know when a clear goal is established. Feel lfree to PM me any time.

 

[Khotso]

Thanks for clarifying that. Part of the question as there has been so much discussion about other things that are desired. So to be clear the goal right now is to try to reverse or modify the 2008 IFT restriction imposed by ?? FRTIB and a change to USC?? See what I mean. The initial goal is getting fogged over by the vapors of and...what if...also...

Let me know when a clear goal is established. Feel lfree to PM me any time.

PO: In my view, the clearest and most productive goal at this juncture is simply to explore feasibility of legal arguments that we have been wrongly harmed by the FRTIBs 2008 IFT restriction. Absent that, we have no ability to seek injunctive or other specific relief. So why don't we all just pony up a small commitment (we're talking as little as $50 a person here..) in support of that simple goal? I really appreciate what nsurf is doing for us all on this -- I'm sure it's consuming a lot of his time. The least I can do is say: I'm In! and be willing to throw a few bucks into the pot. Let's put off debating what specific relief we should seek as a goal until we have sufficient legal review and know we have a strong case.

 

[nsurf9]

PessOptimist and Khotso, I know you both understand this is a very important issue, not only to us, but to 4.5 million other federal government employees.

Right now, I have a good understanding of what several individuals have voiced as valid concerns. I thought that vetting was important to know, going in. Frankly, I hadn't considered the time element with respect the west coast, but now I am sensitive to that problem. Also, I was please to see the poll results on this issue.

Although I am familiar with the law of equity and the elements of an injunction, I certainly don't plan to write and file the Complaint in court, myself. That why I have sought out one of the best attorneys in northern Virginia, who happens to to be long time friend. I am doing this as an added measure to protect the interests of those of who have expressed their commitment, and of myself. I will post what he has to say on this thread and on My money, out TSP . . . thread, after I have reviewed the facts and merits of the case with him.

If we do, ultimately, put together a winning case for a few more IFTs and/or some kind of option out, I will look forward to your commitement as well.

 

[nasa1974]

Frankly, I hadn't considered the time element with respect the west coast, but now I am sensitive to that problem.

nsurf, Not just the west coast but Alaska and Hawaii also. The noon EST cut off forces Federal or military personnel to make an IFT before 8am local time in Alaska and if you are in Hawaii they would have to make an IFT by 7am local time. Something closer to 4pm EST would make it easier on those folks.

Thanks again for what you are doing.

 

[konakathy]

nsurf, Not just the west coast but Alaska and Hawaii also. The noon EST cut off forces Federal or military personnel to make an IFT before 8am local time in Alaska and if you are in Hawaii they would have to make an IFT by 7am local time. Something closer to 4pm EST would make it easier on those folks.

Thanks again for what you are doing.

Yes, mahalos, nsurf!

Nasa is right about the IFT cutoff times. When the time changes on the mainland next month - our cutoff time will be 6am HST. I'm ok with the cutoff times because I'm up early anyway. But some other folks out here might appreciate a later start.

Of course, first things first.

 

[nsurf9]

Well, I missed the recent dip - wait a moment while I kick myself again. Lilly pad and dead cat hopping is what I normally do best. That was because I was being distracted and sidetracked with the possibility of Israel bombing Iran, or Greece slipping off the frying pan. I don't know what I was thinking - the US Fed is doing the swap dance with the ECU; China wants cozy with the EU because the US trying to grow trade barbs; this is an election year and bombing Iran's nuclear apparatus will not be convenient until October. Go figure.

As noted in "My money, our fund, and the 2008 TSP transfer limits" thread, I will have my (our) first legal consultation with a Virginia attorney on Tuesday at 2pm. It’s an extended, initial consultation with an attorney I've known for more than 20 years.

The idea is to first get a sanity check thru him and then go to the Rose attorneys in DC to re-evaluate and to bring suit. There are several considerations at the forefront:

(1) additional IFTs so members can at least correct for mistakes made early in the month and have a modicum of freedom to proactively increase their returns, especially during this time of exceptionally low returns coming from the G fund;
(2) a later IFT closing-time deadline to accommodate time-zone differences for western states (including Alaska and Hawaii) and Pacific US territories members; and
(3) an option window thru TSP to mutual funds or other tax-deferred investment vehicles, similar to what Title 5 of the United States Code has already set out in law (and the TSP Board has refused), so you’re not stuck in one mid-stream changed system against your will until your 59 ½ years, you quit the federal government, or die.

With respect to the option window the TSP fund, I got to tell, a self-directed IRA looks like paradise to me. Initial roll over all your TSP funds into the self-directed IRA, and up to the IRS limit per year, thereafter, and keep your TSP account open to receive in service contributions and agency matching funds. No taxes, just like TSP, but invest in just about anything you want as often as you want during market hours, including the TSP tracked F, C, S and I funds. The only drawback is covering the trade costs at a low (below $5k) fund balance.

Am I missing a peril of paradise - you could have your TSP tracked funds (and much more) trade them at 3:59:59pm EST – and it would only cost $8.95 an IFT.

Any thoughts?

 

[nsurf9]

I could have sworn I had link in my thread on sell in May and go away - come back in October. Backtesting the saying shows incredible returns, like if you invested $1500 dollars in 1952 you'ld have $57 thousand some odd dollars, but only like $10 if you bought and held. After slicing and dicing a spreadsheet of every monthly return of the TSP fund, I discovered this trend myself. Back then in 2006, with only one IFT, a deadline of the midnight of the 15th and transfer effective on the 1st of the month, I realized this trend and understood that, if I payed attention, I could do better than the indexes. The sell in May; Bull or Bear market; and, daily seasonality is the first threshold I consider, then all the other stuff.

This year "may" be a very especially ugly convergence of "Sell in May" and a rising, narrowing, wedge I spoke of in JKen's thread today.

This evening, I found the following article by the Chartist. His chart shows what I had also been noticing last week and confirmed today, Monday, and was attempting to describing in JKen's thread.

The rising, but narrowing wedge of the S&P 500 (C fund) has been ascending and about to converge with a horizontal line thru the May and July 2011 highs. Today's S fund 1.61% return just completed what might be the last or next-to the last up-leg, topping-out this channel, and converging with a horizontal resistance line.

My guess is that with $4 a gallon and rising gasoline costs, housing showing some weaknesses, Consumer Sentiment will be at best - even. And, if negative, a market mover. This convergence, and a feeling that the market had throughly convinced enough believers it could go down, triggered my decision to go to G. Luckily, we only have 4 business days before new April IFTs.

It may well turn out that my timing was was a little early, heck, Venezuela, North Korea and Iran could announce that they will now become real democratic societies and oil would will now cost $20 a barrel from now on, tomorrow - could happen.

"Sell-in-May" in 2012, too? | Stock Chartist

 

[jpcavin]

I'll definitely be taking this into consideration after I (hopefully) take some profits in April. Thanks for the good read.

 

[nsurf9]

Good "Big Picture" read from Briefing.com.

Headwinds

 

[nsurf9]

Judging from the Autotraker's new April herd of S-funders, a jump up in commodities, especially precious metal - we may well be already be in QE-3. I was tempted this morning to IFT into S and/or I, but by the time 12noon was looming, I just couldn't see buying into this rally at 4pm today.

We're riding just under a rather stiff resistence line that extends several years back topping out the S&P 500 twice. I think, more than anything else, this rally is the product of a remarkably mild winter in the US, allowing convincing shopping and building year-over-year improvement comparisons increases, that would not have otherwise materialized. But the fact is, real estate construction and sales, europe, and this quarter's earnings report leave me worrying.

Looks like I'll have to wait for a dip - for more flies.

 

[nsurf9]

S has formed an head-and-shoulder patter in the last couple of weeks, showing a curve away from a resistance area. Durable Orders came out lower than forcast, but higher than past period. Only Wholesale Inventories tomorrow. The question is will "The Bernak" re-issue the threat (or announce, formally, what they are already doing) QE-3 this afternoon.

I'm watching gold and TIP to see any hint.

If Fed says nothing, looking for DWCPF to finish day out lower than 723.97.

 

[nsurf9]

This is going to be a IFT buzzer beater. VIX taking off looking like its headed for the moon. No U.S. QE-3, Spainish bonds no selling to give just the icing on the already concerning euro-cake to give investors to pull some profits (maybe not a dip).

Could be a nice ripper catching in the I fund, especially with U.S. currency adjusting to no QE and more fire heaing up more reasons for QE.

Anyone have a feel for Unemployment claims coming up above/below forcast.

 

[nsurf9]

This is going to be a IFT buzzer beater. VIX taking off looking like its headed for the moon. No U.S. QE-3 yesterday, Spainish bonds not selling today - supplying just enough icing on the, already concerning, euro-cake to give investors reason to pull some off some profits. Is this a dip, or rounding off an impressively long uptrend rally.

Could be a quick nice ripper catching in the I fund, especially with U.S. currency adjusting to no QE and more fire tp heat-up more Fed for reasons for more QE, inspite of yesterday.

Anyone have a feel for Unemployment claims coming up above/below forcast.

 

[nsurf9]

PS, we just hit a bottom at the neck of a recent head-and-shoulders and the DWCPF is reflecting the bottom. The next 25 minutes may help tell something - wish I would get in now, or wait 'till 4pm, or better yet - both.

 

[nsurf9]

Dip or a Slip? . . . only next week will tell.

As a note:


I meet with the Rose attorneys next week, Wed. 4/11/12, to start the IFT relief ball rolling!

 

[konakathy]

Dip or a Slip? . . . only next week will tell.

As a note:


I meet with the Rose attorneys next week, Wed. 4/11/12, to start the IFT relief ball rolling!

Thanks for the update. Hope the news will be good.

 

[nsurf9]

More than two shakes . . .

S fund made two dips below 699, shaking out the 700 stops.

There's really nothing much on the economic calendars to speak of until this Fri, (except what The Bernak, speaking at Stone Mountain, might say, today (after close)).

I getting (I hope) the notion of dip, not slip (for now).

 

[nsurf9]

No help from The Bernak in Stone Mountain, GA speech - just more regulation tighting (tying-up) for banks (He did answer questions after reciting he did not intend to impair liquidity). I woud have like to have heard him say, I could push that QE-3 button, anytime I want - maybe even tomorrow.

Bernanke Warns Of Risks In Money-Market Funds - WSJ.com

Kinda scary look comparing S&P 500 and VIXY on google finance chart - go back 1 year and 5 years, VIXY looks like its making a very deep bottom and now curving up!
INDEXSP:.INX, vixy