November AutoTracker Trends

TommyIV

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Week 1: Nov 3 - Nov 7


October’s volatility has spilled into November. The first week of the month ended with losses across all three stock funds, extending the uncertainty investors faced through much of the fall.

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How did AutoTracker Members Reacted

Despite the weak start, activity among AutoTracker members remained steady.
Among non-premium participants, 38 members submitted Interfund Transfers (IFTs) during the first week of November—split almost evenly between those adding to stocks and those pulling back.

12 members of the 38 members increased their stock exposure by 30 percentage points or more -the buyers.

14 members of the 38 decreased their stock exposure by 30 percentage points or more - the sellers.

The remaining 12 members used their first IFTs to swap which stock they held without changing their G-fund holding much or at all.

These numbers balance each other without revealing a community wide trend.

Fund-Level Shifts

The most notable allocation change came in the I-fund, which saw an average decrease of 6.5 percentage points among these 38 members. Much of that capital appears to have rotated into the C-fund, which gained an average 4.2 points. It’s a subtle rotation toward domestic equities after weeks of global market instability.

Weekly Performance

As far a performance, only three members outperformed the G-fund this week, including myself. Each had increased stock exposure on Thursday as prices slipped, a move that at first looked premature when markets fell again Friday morning. But a late-day rebound rewarded those early buyers, particularly the two members holding 100% S-fund, who ended the week up more than 1%.

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Looking Ahead

Next week will reveal whether the buyers or the sellers were on the right side of this market.
For now, November begins as October ended—volatile, uncertain, and filled with opportunity for those watching closely.

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Week 2: Nov 10 – Nov 14​


The week opened with calm momentum in the markets. Buyers stepped in late last Friday, and that strength carried through Monday and Wednesday (with TSP closed on Tuesday). By mid-week it looked like we were headed for a steady climb.

Then Thursday hit—and the pullback was sharp.

Thursday Returns:

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AutoTracker members leaned the wrong way ahead of the dip​


Twenty-five non-premium AutoTracker members made moves on Monday and Wednesday. Fourteen of them increased stock exposure, shifting out of the G-fund and into the C, S, or I-funds with the expectation that last week’s bounce would continue.

Only three members went the other direction and reduced their stock exposure—locking in gains and insulating themselves ahead of Thursday’s drop.

Two of those were Scraps and talking2jets. Both moved from 100% S-fund to 100% G-fund on Monday. That single move kept their monthly losses significantly lower than they would have been, and it left them with one IFT still available if they want to re-enter at more attractive prices.

They both ended the week with a gain of 1.1%, matching the weekly return of investors holding 100% I-fund.

The only member to outperform the I-fund’s 1.1% this week was Premium Member cmil1212, finishing with a 1.23% gain after switching from the I-fund to the S-fund on Thursday.


Weekly TSP Fund Returns:

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Coming into today, nine AutoTracker members hold a better return than the F-fund's 0.43% gain through November:

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Average Allocation of Top November Nine:

G 7.8% | F 2.8% | C 21.7% | S 50.6% | I 17.2%

Three of which are among the Top 5 of the 2025 AutoTracker Standings.

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