Not Buying It

When you compare the Top 50 statistics in this early 2010 market picture with that of the Top 15 one thing certainly stands out. For the most part, the Top 15 aren't buying it. That is they appear to be in capital preservation mode in an increasingly risky market.

But regardless of one's view about this market, one thing should be remembered; It's a marathon, not a sprint. It's the score at the end of the year that counts and the game has only just started.

Here is how our two groups are positioned for Monday's action:

2010 Fund Allocation ~ Top 50 Chart 3.jpg

When the first week of the new year is up for 5 consecutive days, one can predict what the Top 50 will look like. And we can see that this group has positioned themselves almost exclusively in stocks.

2010 Cash-Stock Exp ~ Top 50 Chart 1.jpg

Here's the the weekly view so far. Keep in mind that the bond fund is not reflected in either the stock or cash statistics.

2010 Fund Allocation ~ Top 15 Chart 3.jpg

Our Top 15 did make a move for Monday's action. Some bonds were purchased. That was the only change in the chart. I had considered doing the same thing, but chose to stay planted in the G fund.

Total Cash-Stock Exp ~ Top 15 Chart 1.jpg

And the weekly view. Again, bonds are not reflected in this chart, so any percentage difference can be attributed to that omission.

While I do not have any historical reference, I can infer that our Top 15 consider stocks to be fairly risky at the moment. I am expecting volatility to pick up this coming week as it is OPEX and the Santa Claus rally timeframe is officially over. Let's see how many more days this market can move higher without taking a break.
 
thanks CH, like the two groups, is the top 50 going to change through the year or are you watching a static group of folks for that also?
 
CrabClaw;bt970 said:
thanks CH, like the two groups, is the top 50 going to change through the year or are you watching a static group of folks for that also?

The top 50 will be determined by market character and how our folks on the tracker respond to it. Chances are it will change.

The top 15 is the group to watch for trends. We need more data obviously, but I'm hoping our top 15 can give us a clue where the market is going in shorter time frames.
 
CH,

Can you define the Top 15 and Top 50.

Are these the Top 15 - that is, the Top 15 on the AutoTracker 2009.

And, these the Top 50 - the current top 50 on the 2010 AutoTracker. Or, are you using the Top 50 from 2009.

Basically, only two of the 2009 Top 15 went to safety. All of the 2010 Top 50 are in the equities funds. I don't know how to screen (except by my fading eyes) for the 2009 Top 50 in today's market.

All in all, me thinks you got something. Right now 2010 is not a new market - it seems to be a boom off the 10/2009 - 12/2009 plateau.

However, can you define Top 15 and Top 50?:)
 
Boghie;bt974 said:
CH,

Can you define the Top 15 and Top 50.

Are these the Top 15 - that is, the Top 15 on the AutoTracker 2009.

And, these the Top 50 - the current top 50 on the 2010 AutoTracker. Or, are you using the Top 50 from 2009.

Basically, only two of the 2009 Top 15 went to safety. All of the 2010 Top 50 are in the equities funds. I don't know how to screen (except by my fading eyes) for the 2009 Top 50 in today's market.

All in all, me thinks you got something. Right now 2010 is not a new market - it seems to be a boom off the 10/2009 - 12/2009 plateau.

However, can you define Top 15 and Top 50?:)

You're not paying attention. I've already discussed this. ;)

The Top 50 simply tracks the folks at the top of the current tracker.

The Top 15 is the top traders for BOTH 2008 and 2009 COMBINED. I filtered out the buy and holders along with anyone who was not a regular poster. The only person I've devulged as a Top 15 trader is poolman. The rest is super secret information in which you need a Little Orphan Annie decoder ring to gain access. :laugh:
 
CoolHand,

I'm starting to feel oppressed. :embarrest:

All through grade school I got little stars and smiley faces - even when my answers were 'wrong' and I was staring out the windows.

Can you give me a cookie... :p
 
CH,

Got the idea. Nice concept. I was thinking of doing something similar. There is so much data here
 
The top 15 vary so much from year to year; for example none from 2008 are on the 2009 list. See who's in the top 15 for the last five years combined and you might be surprised. Probably these will be multi-fund diversified, very boring to track. A fellow named Spaf (I think) used to do this for us. Me, I'm in the middle of the pack year after year.
 
jimijr;bt980 said:
The top 15 vary so much from year to year; for example none from 2008 are on the 2009 list. See who's in the top 15 for the last five years combined and you might be surprised. Probably these will be multi-fund diversified, very boring to track. A fellow named Spaf (I think) used to do this for us. Me, I'm in the middle of the pack year after year.

You will never see anyone consistently outperform the market. The best you can hope for is to spot trends. That's what the Top 15 are about. It's not a magic formula, it's only a tool. The Top 15 will vary from year to year as I collect data. But the only info I had available to me is 2008 and 2009. The further back you go the fewer folks you'll find who participated on the tracker too, making for slim pickings. We have about 300 folks now, which is a more meaningful group.
 
2007 also was different because we had unlimited IFT's, and one of the winning strategies was to pop in and out of I. We can't do dat anymore.
 
Silverbird;bt982 said:
2007 also was different because we had unlimited IFT's, and one of the winning strategies was to pop in and out of I. We can't do dat anymore.

Good point. I forgot about that and it makes a big difference.
 
Well, iI guess this a polite way of saying where the "smart" money and the "dumb" money is currently allocated.

Seems like anyone who stayed with the Christmas rally and didn't get spoked by naysayers are the "smart money", providing they didn't get too greedy and realized that when the S&P finishes positive for 6 days in a row that is like a "1 to 3 times a year event"...and those that used their 1st IFT to save profits and briefly run for cover would be the truly smart ones. I was fortunate enough to ride a nice wave from Dec 18th thru the 29th before getting back into Uncle -G-.

Currently...this rally has seen the C fund go up 13 out of 15 days. Combine that with the fact that we have not seen a decent pullback since late Oct-early Nov and the smartest money may be those who rode this wave, got off in the last 2 days and have another move to get beck on later this month if we see the S&P fall towards the 50 day EMA.

But bottom line...
Past performance is not an indicator of future returns.

Those who bet with Warren Buffet in that the Fed would save the day whenever needed had a great year in stocks and were the winners of 2009.:cheesy:

Those that were waiting for "the other shoe to drop" last year missed one of the best 9 month stock runs in history and were the "losers".:sick:

But all of that is history...unless you think that the same rules that applied in 2009 still are valid for at least the 1st part of this year.:blink:
 
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