nnuut's Account Talk

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nnuut said:
Russia claims to be there to stop ethnic cleansing so it may have a high approval with the rest of the world. At least that is what they are reporting.:worried:
Click to expand...

A country has never gone on the attack without presenting themselves in a favorable light - the truth to Georgians is probably the opposite of what it is to Russians.

My guess is Georgia is an avenue of significant income and the higher ups want to take control. Maybe down the line we'll get the real story??
 
Steadygain said:
A country has never gone on the attack without presenting themselves in a favorable light - the truth to Georgians is probably the opposite of what it is to Russians.

My guess is Georgia is an avenue of significant income and the higher ups want to take control. Maybe down the line we'll get the real story??
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Georgia was a very powerful part of the USSR, they might want her back?:cool:
 
If the SPX is to move higher we need confirmation. Right now it sits right at the 50 SMA, 1297 on the daily chart And 200 SMA, 1323 on the weekly. We will probably bounce off of this resistance level Monday, unless Oil continues its dive into the HONEY PIT then there is a chance of an up day!!!:)
You realize this is NOT the whole story, just part of it!! View attachment 4418
 
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nnuut said:
If the SPX is to move higher we need confirmation. Right now it sits right at the 50 SMA, 1297 on the daily chart And 200 SMA, 1323 on the weekly. We will probably bounce off of this resistance level Monday, unless Oil continues its dive into the HONEY PIT then there is a chance of an up day!!!:)
You realize this is NOT the whole story, just part of it!! View attachment 4418
Click to expand...

1320, IMO, will be a very tough nut to crack. Like you said, 200 SMA but also a big June tech level and also exactly a 50% retracement from May high to July low!

Personally, if oil continues down tomorrow, and we have a follow through day (even a little) and it looks like we'll close > 1300, I will sell at least 50% of my stock holdings. We may go a bit higher from there, but look at Wed with retail sales and Thur with initial jobless claims...could crash the party. After the end of next week, I still have to wait a full 2 weeks before I can buy more stocks. If we do top next week, that will be about a 20 day (or 4 trading week) run up, and if you think it will drift symmetrically down after that, then there may be a lower buying opportunity in later weeks. If you think 1320 is the high, that is a 120 pt move off of 1200, giving half that back would be 1260 again...which is certainly possible. If we do continue the rocket Monday, there is a chance we have one of those pins shooting maybe 1310-1315, but then settling back down around 1300 which would be a slight reversal signal. Compound that with the Retail, jobs number, and possibility that oil hits a short term bottom, might be a good reason to sell the rally Monday or Tuesday.
 
Corepuncher said:
1320, IMO, will be a very tough nut to crack. Like you said, 200 SMA but also a big June tech level and also exactly a 50% retracement from May high to July low!

Personally, if oil continues down tomorrow, and we have a follow through day (even a little) and it looks like we'll close > 1300, I will sell at least 50% of my stock holdings. We may go a bit higher from there, but look at Wed with retail sales and Thur with initial jobless claims...could crash the party. After the end of next week, I still have to wait a full 2 weeks before I can buy more stocks. If we do top next week, that will be about a 20 day (or 4 trading week) run up, and if you think it will drift symmetrically down after that, then there may be a lower buying opportunity in later weeks. If you think 1320 is the high, that is a 120 pt move off of 1200, giving half that back would be 1260 again...which is certainly possible. If we do continue the rocket Monday, there is a chance we have one of those pins shooting maybe 1310-1315, but then settling back down around 1300 which would be a slight reversal signal. Compound that with the Retail, jobs number, and possibility that oil hits a short term bottom, might be a good reason to sell the rally Monday or Tuesday.
Click to expand...
Damn CP, you gave me a bunch to think about. To do it justice I'd better to answer in the AM, we just got back from our favorite watering hole. Have a good one!!View attachment 4419
NormanView attachment 4419
 
Corepuncher said:
1320, IMO, will be a very tough nut to crack. Like you said, 200 SMA but also a big June tech level and also exactly a 50% retracement from May high to July low!

Personally, if oil continues down tomorrow, and we have a follow through day (even a little) and it looks like we'll close > 1300, I will sell at least 50% of my stock holdings. We may go a bit higher from there, but look at Wed with retail sales and Thur with initial jobless claims...could crash the party. After the end of next week, I still have to wait a full 2 weeks before I can buy more stocks. If we do top next week, that will be about a 20 day (or 4 trading week) run up, and if you think it will drift symmetrically down after that, then there may be a lower buying opportunity in later weeks. If you think 1320 is the high, that is a 120 pt move off of 1200, giving half that back would be 1260 again...which is certainly possible. If we do continue the rocket Monday, there is a chance we have one of those pins shooting maybe 1310-1315, but then settling back down around 1300 which would be a slight reversal signal. Compound that with the Retail, jobs number, and possibility that oil hits a short term bottom, might be a good reason to sell the rally Monday or Tuesday.
Click to expand...
Yep, I agree with you basically. Which leaves us to make some hard decisions. One thing we have to look at is what is driving the markets, right now it is the DOLLAR, that is driving the price of commodities DOWN< DOWN< DOWN, Gold DOWN. they are jumping out of commodities like they have the plague, where are they putting their money? Tom stated in his commentary Friday that the dollar has hit resistance at the 200 EMA, can it bust through? Does this look like a long term bottom to you?
View attachment 4427
YES!!!:D
I'm in the same situation as you are only can IFT out to the "G". It may be a mistake but I'm hanging on for a while, I'm liking what I see. General consensus is that the dollar Will keep climbing the Wall of Worry.

'Dollar is back in a big way'

JACQUELINE MACKENZIE | JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA - Aug 08 2008 12:29


weakened further on Friday morning as the dollar posted further gains against the euro.

"The dollar is back in a big way," said a local currency trader.

After breaking above the R7,50 level overnight, the rand weakened further on Friday morning and at 11am local time, it was at R7,63 per dollar from R7,4747 overnight.

The euro was bid at $1,5161 from $1,5323 overnight.

Dow Jones Newswires reports that the euro plunged against the dollar and the yen in Asian trade on Friday morning as European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet's dovish comments overnight fed speculation that the bank won't hike rates soon.

The massive sell-off of the single currency was prompted by Trichet's remarks on Thursday, in which he expressed concerns over economic growth. He acknowledged that eurozone growth probably slowed sharply in mid-2008.

As a result, some Tokyo dealers said the euro may fall to $1,48 and Y162 in the coming weeks.

Dow Jones Newswires reported in a market talk that the sideways trading range that has held euro-dollar for the past four months has clearly been broken, notes Commerzbank.

Significant chart support levels were ignored as the rate slumped in Asia, and the bank says from both a psychological and technical perspective the break of the 200-day moving average at 1,5224 was very important. Commerzbank now looks for a test of the 1,50 level. -- I-Net Bridge
http://www.mg.co.za/article/2008-08-08-dollar-is-back-in-a-big-way

But I've my finger on the button! View attachment 4432
 
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Guys,
Keeo up the excellent and profitable analysis, and we will be able to succeeed against all odds, even against the 2 monthly IFTs!
 
Thanks for the good thoughts Norman. It certainly sounds inviting, convincing, frightening, etc....why do I feel like De Ja Vu..:D:D:D

FS
 
Guys take note that I'm down about 6% for the year before you consider my comments.airplane5.gif
Now back to the BBQ Ribs and Smoked SHOULDER, when it's GOOD it's GOOD! zits.gif
pigfly.gif
 
Thought about putting some to the side today, but NO, still 65% "C", 35% "S"!
AP
Stocks turn higher as oil prices fall below $114
Monday August 11, 11:50 am ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer Stocks turn higher as crude oil prices fall below $114 a barrel, easing inflation concerns
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street turned higher Monday as the price of crude oil fell below $114 a barrel, easing investors' concerns about the impact of inflation on the economy.
Oil traders appeared to set aside their uneasiness about the conflict between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway province of South Ossetia; earlier, they seemed to be questioning whether the fighting could lead to supply disruptions in the region. Light, sweet crude fell $1.23 to $113.97 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after dipping as low as $113.71. That is oil's lowest level since early May.
Wall Street is relieved that the price of oil has fallen more than $30 from its July 11 high of $147.27, easing worries about overall inflation and a key pressure point for consumers and businesses.
Jim Hardesty, president of Hardesty Capital Management in Baltimore, said the two biggest pressures on the market -- a financial sector struggling with souring debt and high oil prices -- are both showing signs of moderation. The decline in oil, in particular is easing pressure on Wall Street.
"We have a speculative bubble in prices that's giving way to what now I think are more moderate levels," he said. "I think we look forward to a resumption of an improvement in equity prices based on still-good earnings coming out of many companies."
In late morning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 51.21, or 0.44 percent, to 11,785.53, after the blue chips' 300-point jump Friday.
Broader stock indicators also advanced. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 7.46, or 0.58 percent, to 1,303.78, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 21.38, or 0.89 percent, to 2,435.48. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 321.1 million shares.
The market's early retracing of last week's steep stock market advance wasn't a surprise as some investors looked to cash in gains. The late morning buying came in a relatively quiet session. The jump in stocks Friday led the Dow industrials to a run-up of 3.60 percent for the week. The Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced 2.86 percent last week and the Nasdaq composite index added 4.46 percent.
The dollar, whose recent strength has helped drive oil lower, was mostly higher Monday against other major currencies. Gold prices fell. Bond prices fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.99 percent from 3.94 percent late Friday.[more]
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080811/wall_street.html
 
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