nnuut's Account Talk

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I like it when folks sell the rallies and move back to the lily pad - leaves more room on the highway for the bulls to stampede.
 
Seems to me that with a rising dollar, and lower commodities, the SPX breakout from an ascending triangle has achieved a sustainable rally and now has support in the 1290-1292 area that was previous resistance. Doesn't this increase the odds that this support will most likely hold in a correction this expiration week, unless unforseen or outside circumstances occur? Any other views?
 
Even with the huge ring in my nose I can still smell the rocket fuel. We now have four times the available liquidity than was around in March 2003 - and that blast off provided 3,000 points in about fourteen months. This next blast off may simply mount to a melt up headed for weightlessness and that's not including the 18 billion shares short.
 
I feel we should head downward from here, so 80% "G", 5% "C", 15% "S" COB today. So there!!!:suspicious:
 
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Nnuut,
I wish you would have posted your opinion before the cut-off time, because it is always a good sounding board. Please consider this a sign of my high regard for your opinion. TIA
 
Thaannnks!:D it was one of those last minute things, lost bandwidth here for about 30 minutes thought I wasn't going to make the deadline.:o
 
nnuut said:
I feel we should hear downward from here, so 80% "G", 5% "C", 15% "S" COB today. So there!!!:suspicious:
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Well one thing is for sure - NO ONE CAN PREDICT THIS MARKET with any certainty.

The bigger half feels the general sentiment will improve and volume will kick in - Boom with the election - and continue doing well. So that part of me feels today is simply "consolidation"

The other half feels there is more than enough to drag the economy down (and the Markets with it) for another 6 months.
 
Just a few random thoughts. Everyone keeps talking about the $18B in "big money" "smart money" sitting on the sidelines that's just waiting to jump in when the market turns up for good. Has anyone considered the possibility that it no longer exists after all the writedowns? That it was institutional money "on paper" that never really existed to begin with and that has simply evaporated with the creative bookkeeping and ponzi schemes that have collapsed? I'm just wondering, because a few people claim we're in a "correction" to an ongoing bull market but it seems to me that if this is the case that some of that "smart money" would have dipped toes into these rallies to keep them going - if it was there. I see no indication that it's in commodities (down), bonds (down) or other cash instruments. Where is it hiding? Transports maybe?
 
luv2read said:
Just a few random thoughts. Everyone keeps talking about the $18B in "big money" "smart money" sitting on the sidelines that's just waiting to jump in when the market turns up for good. Has anyone considered the possibility that it no longer exists after all the writedowns? That it was institutional money "on paper" that never really existed to begin with and that has simply evaporated with the creative bookkeeping and ponzi schemes that have collapsed? I'm just wondering, because a few people claim we're in a "correction" to an ongoing bull market but it seems to me that if this is the case that some of that "smart money" would have dipped toes into these rallies to keep them going - if it was there. I see no indication that it's in commodities (down), bonds (down) or other cash instruments. Where is it hiding? Transports maybe?
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L2R,

If what you are saying is close to reality then we are in trouble. The way the market swings with light trading it would be difficult to get out of this pattern. The investors trading now wouldn't be enough to push the market into a strong position with out some deep pockets somewhere. :worried:
 
nasa1974 said:
L2R,

If what you are saying is close to reality then we are in trouble. The way the market swings with light trading it would be difficult to get out of this pattern. The investors trading now wouldn't be enough to push the market into a strong position with out some deep pockets somewhere. :worried:
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Remember taxpayers had to fund the $30B buyout of BSC. If that was such a good deal and so necessary to keep the market and financial system afloat, surely a few of those institutional investors could have stepped up and done it to save their own butts - if there was $18B sitting on the sidelines waiting for a "good thing?" Instead all the risk was transferred from the private sector with public money. The largest transference of public money to the private sector in history has taken place during the last 12 months. BSC, Fannie/Freddie, etc.

IMO with oil down and dollar up we should have seen some movement.
 
luv2read said:
- if there was $18B sitting on the sidelines waiting for a "good thing?"

IMO with oil down and dollar up we should have seen some movement.
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Luv2read,
You are incredibly smart and amazingly determined. If I have learned anything over the years it's not to argue with a woman.

So let me simply say: If there is $18B waiting on the sidelines (and here I don't know the amount - but that's probably close) there has to be more evidence of stability and a certainty that the Markets are going up and staying up.

For over a month we've had our most dominate indicator that the fall has ended - things have leveled off - and now are gaining ground. This is too big an amount to take a chance on and so they'll wait for more solid proof (which is presently ongoing).

I would never win an argument against you as the odds of you being wrong are less than 1 in 400 Gazillion; but it's remotely possible that things are not quite as bleak as they appear.
 
Thanks Steady. There are so many possible scenarios and reasons for the market being what it is. I hate all the doom and gloom, but I'm just trying to be realistic and figure things out with help from the keen minds on the MB.

This morning I felt sure we'd close positive for the day and the week despite today's bad start. Op-ex weeks are tricky but everyone wants to keep this rally going for a few more days so I think the positive energy might do it.

Here's a handy site for anyone interested in op-ex schedules.

http://www.theocc.com/publications/xcal/xcal2008.pdf
 
I hear you L2R. That's why I nibbled yesterday. With the bulls fighting hard at the end of the day, I think the strength will take hold tommorrow and we'll see a positive day...as long as we the economic news is not bad, and no surprises from our friends in Russia or Iran.

FS
 
Just an IMHO note. L2R's insights on the bad loan, credit crunch, financial fiasco's are on target (I think she's nailed the reality of the process). The intersting thing that's happening however, is that we've become such creative entrepreneur's, and so globally integrated, that you can bet there is big money sitting on the sidelines, and that those who control those funds are setting up the dominos for the next push up. In spite all the bogus paper being printed, someone will show up as the golden person (not the politically correct sensitivity), and keep the markets fluid and stable..Bet on it..

FS
 
Might end up a Camel Hump Day, Ya never know?:worried:
camelhump.jpg
Sorry, just kidding!:D
 
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nnuut said:
Might end up a Camel Hump Day, Ya never know?:worried:
View attachment 4459
Sorry, just kidding!:D
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Hey Nnuut,
I'm hoping for one of those sway-back mule days! This week went sour for me - I just didn't play smart.:embarrest:

FogSailing, you got some company on the lilly today anyway - at least we get whatever today brings, and then of course, that certain daily feeding until next month. -Gotta learn to luv those flys!! ;)
View attachment 4460
 
RIBIT, RIBIT!!!!!:laugh:
When I get home me and a cool one are going to take a long dip in my Private Frog Pond!!!!
SPISH SPLASH!!
 
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