nnuut's Account Talk

[budnipper1]

I was wondering if anyone has ever looked into the differences
we experience between the TSP Return %'s vs. the Index's and
ETF's which I use for tracking. This is just another tool I
use in the decision making process. Where the SPX or C-Fund is
very consistant (within a penny), the EFA or I-Fund fluxuates
to a greater degree. It's understood that fees and currencies
play a part in this, but something interesting occurs from
time to time.

Specifically, The I-Fund sometimes lags behind the EFA %
results. Other times it pays out a greater % then the EFA.
The disparegies always come in line to keep them consistant
with each other.

Here's an example:
On Thurday I-Fund Return % (accum) owed the EFA approx- .15%
or .04 cents.
On Friday the I-Fund disparegy grew to .51% or .13 cents.
On Monday the I-Fund disparegy grew yet again to .58% or
.15 cents.

When the I-Fund has a losing day, it will make up for the .58%
by losing more then the EFA will. The interesting (and fun)
thing that happens is when the EFA owes the I-Fund, that tends
to be a big plus for I-Fund shares.

Am I just OCD or has anyone ever took notice of this.

YEP.. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=72975&postcount=6

 

[nnuut]

YEP.. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=72975&postcount=6

EXACTLY!!!!

 

[nnuut]

By the way squalebear welcome to the Board, questions are incouraged here, Keep them coming!!
Norman

 

[kar_crazy]

enjoy the frog legs Nnuuuts&F S, i cant get off this train just yet must be CAR CRAZY G L hope i dont give it all back tomorrow :blink::nuts:

 

[Guest2]

It's my honor to be a part of this respectful board.
Thanks for the kind words and the warm welcome.

 

[FogSailing]

Nnuts:

Are you leaning towards jumping in tomorrow...I'm currently thinking of 50 S and 50 I....although I don't know why....Ebb is showing Pattern 8 for tomorrow ...which is go to G or F....

Today's news sucks...but tomorrows is likely to be as fuzzy as a peach...:cheesy:

Hope you can throw in a few ideas..

FS

 

[weatherweenie]

Nnuts:

Ebb is showing Pattern 8 for tomorrow ...which is go to G or F....

Ebbtalk says he's going to I for Wednesday.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi WW...Yes, but Ebb is taking a contraian position....I'm guessing he's wants to take advantage of the FV...but the 5 day pattern for the I fund looks to me like it's sideways at best for tomorrow...just my hypothetical non-technical -seafaring -smell the wind two sense worth... I'm certainly not the one making 30% for the year... :nuts:

GL tommorrow...

FS

 

[nnuut]

Nnuts:

Are you leaning towards jumping in tomorrow...I'm currently thinking of 50 S and 50 I....although I don't know why....Ebb is showing Pattern 8 for tomorrow ...which is go to G or F....

Today's news sucks...but tomorrows is likely to be as fuzzy as a peach...:cheesy:

Hope you can throw in a few ideas..

FS

I'm going to the "G" today, I understand the other opportunities, but want to see which way the Markets are headed before I jump in. (changed to the "G") When is the penny due?
Norman

 

[FogSailing]

I agree...We need a pennymeister. Where can we get one? Does anyone at TSP Talk work in Treasury...Is there a schedule for this stuff? Good question Nnuts..

FS

 

[BeaverState]

Hi WW...Yes, but Ebb is taking a contraian position....I'm guessing he's wants to take advantage of the FV...but the 5 day pattern for the I fund looks to me like it's sideways at best for tomorrow...just my hypothetical non-technical -seafaring -smell the wind two sense worth... I'm certainly not the one making 30% for the year... :nuts:

GL tommorrow...

FS

I thought Ebb doesn't look at current news, Fair Value, etc. Aren't his charts based only on past history? Am I wrong on this?

 

[FogSailing]

Hi BS (I know - only your friends would call you that), You are correct in your assessment. I don't believe Ebb uses the stars, moon, heiroglyphics, legends, scienc fiction, etc to make his calculations...he uses only ther best ingredients...not like yours truly who uses primarily human and emotionally driven motivators lke fear, rumor, MSNBC...

Sorry for stealing your space nnut...Wasn't the Frog Pond fun today

FS

 

[nnuut]

Hi BS (I know - only your friends would call you that), You are correct in your assessment. I don't believe Ebb uses the stars, moon, heiroglyphics, legends, scienc fiction, etc to make his calculations...he uses only ther best ingredients...not like yours truly who uses primarily human and emotionally driven motivators lke fear, rumor, MSNBC...

Sorry for stealing your space nnut...Wasn't the Frog Pond fun today

FS

Yeah the "F" jumped around like a FROG, but I made a little! Tomorrow in the "G" I hope that was a good idea?View attachment 2240

 

[nnuut]

30% "C", 70% "S" COB today.
Changed my mind 3 times today, not a good sign. The charts say we are at the top of the channel, Oil is high, everything points to CP. BUT the jobless Claims report tomorrow will probably be a bad one and the way investors reacted today to the employment report tells me they are on the "FED will lower rates" thing again!! Who'd have ever thunk it?

 

[nnuut]

I may have jumped the gun by going into the Market tomorrow. The funds just topped and are on the way down to resistance, but with the way things have gone lately this might just be a step (green line), you never know? OH, I'm not an expert channel evaluator or chart analyst, and I know that, this can very well be incorrect, just guessing. Should have stuck to my guns!!:worried:
View attachment 2253

 

[nnuut]

Talking about friday!

This week the market fell into a very tight 30 point trading range on the S&P 500. In the absence of news, light directionless trading set in. The economic releases came in slightly better than expected, but everyone knows they are hindsight. It is the future the Fed is concerned about.

This same scenario will unfold next week during the first four days. The economic releases are very light and they include the ISM numbers, building permits and auto sales. PEP, WAG and RIMM are the only earnings worth mention.

The fireworks will let loose on Friday with the release of the Unemployment Report. The weak number last month paved the way for the Fed to lower interest rates. If there is an increase in unemployment, the market will have a negative reaction. On the other hand, solid employment could prove that last month’s decline was an aberration. If this unfolds, the market will make a run at the all-time high.

I still suspect that the market is headed higher. Global growth is fueling our economy and housing only makes up 5% of our GDP. Earnings are right around the corner and we have not had an earnings warning outside of the home building sector. BSC and LEH were supposedly “exposed” to sub prime and both posted decent results. As companies release earnings, their guidance for next quarter will have a tremendous influence on the market.

This market can swing either way. While we wait, we will stay balanced.
http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/

 

[Bullitt]

Right on with LEH and BSC. BSC finally got over $120 which is bullish. I think these big timers are taking it slow until BAC, which allegedly had more subprime than C, comes out of the closet like Chuck Prince on Monday morning and slashes earnings by 60%. This quarter almost seems like the setup from last quarter. We were expecting earnings cuts but they never really came.

Friday's employment is going to be the tell.

 

[nnuut]

Well, let's see just who has the nerve to be 100% Friday? I'm still mulling it over.:worried:View attachment 2254

 

[buda]

You know I was considering S and I split for Friday. But at this point it could go either way like G...

 

[nnuut]

MULL, MULL:worried: I really think nobody really knows what is going to happen if the Jobs Report meets expectations of 100K! I sure would like to know for sure!!

[FONT=times new roman, times]WAITING ON THE JOBS REPORT[/FONT]​

[FONT=times new roman, times]The Well-Timed Strategy for Week Ending October 5th[/FONT]
[FONT=times new roman, times]by Peter Navarro, Ph.D.[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,tahoma,arial]September 30, 2007[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]Navarro's Big Economic Picture[/FONT][FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]An Inflationary Hat Trick[/FONT]

This week's market report is a short story. The Fed's rate cut, a.k.a. the "Bernanke Put," continues to work its magic on the markets -- or so it seems at a casual bullish glance. The reality is a bit grimmer and bearish. Since the rate cuts, commodities are up by over 15%, gold has hit a 27-year peak, and the dollar has hit a record low. Add that all up and it is clear that the financial markets are betting on inflation. What remains unclear, however, is whether that inflation will be accompanied by a recession and add up to stagflation. That's the next big unfolding story in the market to watch. That's why the jobs report on Friday will be so significant. Last month, the jobs report was an ugly surprise, yielding a net loss of 4000 jobs. At least some analysts believe that this was an anomaly and that this next report will show a robust 100,000 jobs generated. So let's see what happens -- but don't have a lot of money on the table when that report is issued.​

[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]This Week's Big Market Movers[/FONT]

The jobs report does not come until Friday so that may augur low volatility during the week because that report is so important. Of the other major reports for the week -- the ISM index on Monday, auto sales on Tuesday, factory orders on Thursday -- only the ISM index has any kind of market moving potential. This index is a great measure of the supply side of the economy and is a pretty good leading indicator of any recession on the horizon.​

[more]
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/navarro/2007/0930.html