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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!nnuut's Account Talk
- Thread starter nnuut
- Start date
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 210
Re: Nnuut's Account Talk
Seems I'm almost by myself except for FiveTears (sorry if I missed someone)? We can cry together Monday! NBNBC (old gamblers mantra)!
Oh! add Jeremy and Gaetaone to that list! Ya never know!! AND Show-Me OPPS! Now we can have a PARTY!:toung:
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 210
Re: Nnuut's Account Talk
Talking about TIMING! FYI!
MARK HULBERT
It worked again
Fosback's seasonal market-timing method still has enviable track record
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Like the Energizer Bunny, the timing system based on the stock market's month-end and pre-holiday seasonal patterns keeps on chugging along.
This timing system was inaugurated in the early 1970s by Norman Fosback, editor of Fosback's Fund Forecaster. Far and away, it's the best-performing timing system of any that the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked since 1980, when the HFD commenced publication.
Interestingly, this simple and mechanical seasonal-timing system has a record that's even better than Fosback's complex econometric model, which Fosback has spent countless hours over the years developing and perfecting. (I devoted one of my columns earlier this week to this complex econometric model. Read the column.)
The idea behind this model is that the stock market has a bullish bias around the turns of each month and in the sessions immediately prior to each exchange holiday. At all other times the model calls for being out of the market and safely invested in a money market fund. It therefore incurs very little risk.
And yet, unlike most other market-timing systems that are in cash more than half the time, this system historically has been able to make just as much money as the overall stock market -- if not a tad bit more. Over the last 25 years, for example, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest's calculations, a portfolio that switched between the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Index (97199001 : Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 14,136.25-38.22-0.27%
9719900114,136.25, -38.22, -0.3%) and 90-day T-bills on this system's signals would have produced a 13.7% annualized return, in contrast to 12.9% for buying and holding.
Not bad for being out of the market more than half of the time.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...{42ED521B-09B9-4439-A833-BEC0D8E47E80}&siteId=
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 210
Re: Nnuut's Account Talk
I'm holding on a nnuut call, my signature is there to warn me of just such a situation. I think that the EZ might come back tomorrow Japan and the rest will be down following US markets. One or two days in the "I" no more. The way it always works for me is that if I get out and run with the rest of them today, tomorrow will RALLY, (BOUNCE) but I wouldn't count on that. Please don't follow me, I'm nnuuts!:nuts:
Oh! No, No, No, NO I don't -- Hang-In-There too long -- No More. I'm tired of wakin' up BROKE.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 210
Re: Nnuut's Account Talk
I also Ms. Ayla. I have been waiting on the BIG DROP for awhile now, but It seems that Birchtree is right, at least for awhile. You know what I think about it, and I quote!
"Don't worry about the world coming to an end today. It's already tomorrow in Australia "
(Charles Schultz)
ATCJeff
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 26
mlk_man
Banned
- Reaction score
- 21
atcsat64
Investor
- Reaction score
- 1
Re: Nnuut's Account Talk
Dagummit I've missed the "G" penny by one day three weeks in a row, is that normal?
Really don't care about today though!
Yep, I've been missin it also, but that "I" sure has been nice!
ayla
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 16
Re: Nnuut's Account Talk
I missed it too. I was predicting it very well until October when encountered first "mistake". Since then, I've tried to make the data fit that "mistake" and I'm getting more and more convinced that they did some kind of FV back then that has made it impossible to calculate future payouts of the penny unless you disregard October.
Think I'm going to not try again for a while. Got to get more desperate.
If I fund has a bad day tomorrow or is on the relatively low side, I will probably get back in though the weekend can be volatile. One good day there makes up for a bunch of "penny payouts".
And I'm fairly convinced (according to my 'VIX 200 day average theory") that there isn't going to be a pullback for at least a couple weeks. Time will tell.Similar threads
See the below signature!
This is not the lily pad, but close. Might get a little "G" Penny tomorrow, but it will probably come tonight. Just give it a rest!
Really Slippery out there, Oil Slick getting SLICKER!
