nnuut's Account Talk

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I've seen the short term work just like the long term, it happens all the time. If that's true we should see around 1345 S&P and 517 DWCPF in the near future. They both look like possible H&S to me.:cool:
Right now the S&P is still working on satisfing the larger H&S I mentioned, 1350.:cool:
 
My thanks for the analysis Nnut and LTR...I think I'll stay mostly out till early July...looks like we have some downside to attend to first..

Regards,

FS
 
From Ahead of the News:


Calling tops in crude is dangerous. I would wait for a break of the trendline before doing that, currently just under 120, putting heavy pressure on 121 recent lows. First clues will come from the 5 dma momentum line. The 135 level (May high) is definite reistance, so there is selling pressure. But that does not mean gasoline is cheap or that oil bulls are done.

Vix trading is usually smart money. Here is an update from Phil's stock world:
VIX- Declines in the tech and financial sectors bridled hopes of a very meaningful recovery in stocks today (despite a modest close higher), keeping the composite measure of implied volatility in the S&P 500 well above the 20% line to read 23.12 by day’s end. Late last week we noticed a strong current of VIX call buyers positioning for further turbulence in the S&P in June and July via call options near the 30-line. With today’s revelations out of Lehman Brothers keeping financials tethered to the downside and the spread of losses to other consumer-exposed sectors, traders have extended their volatility-bullish outlook by trading heavily calls at the August 27.50 strike on a volume 3 times the open interest. These contracts, which switched hands 16,000 times, commanded premiums of $1.50 per contract – a price reflecting about a 40% chance of VIX closing above 27.50 by August 19.

Talk of windfall profit tax should be called war profiteering tax? Interesting historical tidbit sent to me by a reader: link.

Learn from history, not from your bias, just as in trading (no political vitriolic comments please, this is just added info "outside of the box", which is what I do in my trading).

Yesterday's close:

Techs hold on to important support, however, NQ (NDX futures) continous contract closed a hair above its 200 dma (1973). A sign that the cash index is headed down there?

The dollar and gold both got clobbered, but EUR/USD is still holding 1.5450, an important area. As for gold, when it lost 890 overnight it was all over. If it holds 867, there is a chance we avoid a retest of 850. I am somehwat skeptical of all this dollar bullishness as I doubt we will be raising rates quite yet, whereas Europe will. Their economy is much stronger (so much for all that "old Europe" talk a few years ago).

SPX fund buyers at the 1350 area and ended the day in a doji. Up for grabs, but somehwat oversold.

Nasdaq had a 176 new year lows versus 20 new year highs. The background outlook is not very rosy. This could set up a very negative op-ex next week (quad witching).

Interesting to see the gold sell-off the same week they introduced options to GLD. Was it a sign of a top, or are we just clearing out the decks before the next move higher? We probably will not know until next week. GLD option sentiment has quickly flipped from quite bullish to bearish.


Techs hold on to important support, however, NQ (NDX futures) continous contract closed a hair above its 200 dma (1973). A sign that the cash index is headed down there?
Click to expand...
 
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Here is something else to think about!!

The MA(20) is about to cross the MA(50) on the way down. As you can see on the below, the result of this was a further drop in the S&P. Note that crossing when heading up resulted in a rally or up trend.
View attachment 4045
 
No Worries Mate! The Fed-eration knows just what to do, and the PPT has everything in hand. :rolleyes:
spaceballs.gif
 
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If they can support the $ things will turn around, about time they thought of that!:nuts:

Dollar recovers against euro

Greenback strengthens despite Fed report saying the economy remains 'generally weak' and signs the ECB may hike interest rates.

June 12, 2008: 7:02 AM EDT

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- The dollar rose against the euro Thursday even though the U.S. Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy is "generally weak" and investors mulled the prospects of a eurozone interest rate hike.
The 15-nation euro fell in morning European trading to $1.5403, from $1.5571 in New York trading late Wednesday.
In its Beige Book report, which provides readings on the U.S. economy by region, the Fed indicated Wednesday that Americans are feeling the pinch of rising energy and food costs and the economy remains "generally weak."
The findings seemed to confirm investors' concerns as stocks on Wall Street tumbled Wednesday and oil prices rebounded. Oil traded as high as $138.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before settling at $136.38 Wednesday.
Meanwhile, U.S. corn prices on Wednesday surged above $7 a bushel for the first time - its fifth record in as many days - spelling higher food prices for consumers.
In Europe, the European Central Bank signaled last week it could raise rates by a small amount at its next meeting to combat inflation in the euro zone. Comments by senior ECB officials this week cemented that expectation, although they also indicated that multiple rate hikes were probably not likely.
Higher interest rates, used to combat inflation, can strengthen a currency by giving investors higher returns on investments, while lower interest rates can weigh on a currency.
"Currency markets remain volatile as central banks continue their rhetoric ahead of the G8 finance meetings that start tomorrow," said James Hughes, an analyst with CMC Markets in London.
"It's almost as if there's a dawning realization that with energy costs so high, attempting to keep inflation within old parameters is going to cause untold damage to economies," Hughes said.
The dollar was somewhat higher against the Japanese yen Thursday morning, buying ¥107.50 from ¥106.93 Wednesday, while the British pound bought $1.9522, down from the $1.9631 a pound bought in trading late Wednesday.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/12/markets/dollar.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008061207
 
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