nnuut's Account Talk

[nnuut]

Birchtree it depends on what happens Monday, what are you going to do?View attachment 2334

 

[Birchtree]

I'm going to be working on my next buy list over the weekend for the oceanic and I'm sitting tight on the tugboat collecting my DCA next week. This was a healthy give back and we are now purged and cleared for another run to new all-time highs.

 

[poolman]

I'm buying on the dip and selling on the top. Going with my gut all the way...

 

[nnuut]

I'm going to be working on my next buy list over the weekend for the oceanic and I'm sitting tight on the tugboat collecting my DCA next week. This was a healthy give back and we are now purged and cleared for another run to new all-time highs.

Where is the BOTTOM?

 

[Birchtree]

If we are working with the prospect of an early 9 month cycle low the bottom could be right now or perhaps to 13,000 on the Dow. I don't think much lower than that.

 

[nnuut]

Only down to 13000? Hummm, I remember when 10,000 was a the magical number. Are you counting the possible recession? If we miss this chance we missed a real good chance at a recession, look at the numbers. Energy costs have been responsible for every recession the US has ever had. It can be just around the corner. Retail Gas and diesel are on the rise. I just love your positive attitude through these rough times.

 

[nnuut]

Good info!!

CORRECTION UNDERWAY
10/19/2007

Correction Underway
by Carl Swenlin
Two weeks ago I wrote an article that stated that it was a good time for a pullback. As it turns out the pullback started four trading days later, and it appears now that a full blown correction is in progress. It will probably take at least two or three weeks to complete the correction, and there will probably be something of a bounce before the correction low is found.
Friday's down move was quite violent, but it also provided evidence that the market is getting short-term oversold. The following chart shows the Participation Index (PI), which measures short-term price trends and tracks the percentage of stocks pushing the upper or lower edge of a short-term price trend envelope. As you can see, on Friday the Down PI reached an oversold level similar to the down spike last summer. While this kind of selling climax indicates that a short-term bottom is near, it is most likely an initiation climax, meaning that any bounce will most likely be followed by more selling. (See last summer's correction.)

Other indicators show that the market is just coming off overbought levels, and that more corrective action is needed to work off the excesses of the last rally. The next chart shows price, breadth, and volume oscillators. Note that they are moving down, but at least a few weeks will be needed to get them to oversold levels. [more]
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/071019_correct.html

 

[Uptrend]

I am not sure how Carl can predict that a correction would take 2 -3 weeks. Comparing the oversold indicator to the TSP closing prices for late July - early August, there werer some strong rebounds. If this pattern follows Monday and perhaps Tuesday there should show a strong uptrend. The big drop on August 3rd, was followed by three positive trading days. Just in case this is not just a consilidation from the previous Ben B initiatied rally starting on September 18, after 1 to 3 daysw in the market next week, one could reduce positions. Once the earnings reports are out of the way, I think strong forward speculation will propel the market to new highs. Greater international trade, based on the weak dollar will also spark forward earnings and higher stock prices. The report is however, a GOOD CAUTION REMINDER!​

 

[nnuut]

Might be a positive day Monday. If it is I might go to safety encase this thing continues down. Looking back at consolidations sometimes it takes a little break before it falls further or just continues down. Either way it's really risky to stay in until you see a turn around.:worried:

 

[Robo5555]

Great ifo nnuut! Thanks.

 

[nnuut]

Compare the EFA ans S&P consolidation in July with the Market this week, do we see any correlation? How would Monday react? Opinions?

View attachment 2337

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

S&P 500 futures down 4.8, but that's 12%'s butta, baby

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Nnut:

As I'm writing this, Asian markets are down about 3%..Glad I jumped to safety before Friday's big bust...

Since the markets now appear oversold, we'll see if things start to look a bit greener tomorrow or Tuesday...however, I'm on the sidelines until this volatility subsides a bit. The VIX was looking relatively stable a week ago, but I've been on the road and couldn't follow the day to day action...

I'd be interested if anybody out there caught a/ indicator/s that could have provided folks with a little more information to use in considering a move to the safety of G/F.

The economic calendar provides a good look at what's coming up, but the hogh price of oil and gold make me feel a bit bearish...which I really dislike..

God luck to all next week..

FS

 

[Spaf]

Hi Nnut:

I'd be interested if anybody out there caught a/ indicator/s that could have provided folks with a little more information to use in considering a move to the safety of G/F.

FS

FS,
Yes there are indicators: i.e., wheat v chaff. There are good systems, better systems, but no perfect systems!

S

 

[Uptrend]

Regarding the consolidations for the S&P and EFA, boths charts show a little bounce back in July; more pronounced on the S&P. I am not sure we can compare this way however. For one, we would have to look at the selling volume. Perhaps there was more consistant short selling this summer, and last Friday was a panic sell? Another theory: perhaps this sell was inspired by the street in order to get the Feds attention for another rate cut?:notrust:

 

[nnuut]

Hi Nnut:

As I'm writing this, Asian markets are down about 3%..Glad I jumped to safety before Friday's big bust...

Since the markets now appear oversold, we'll see if things start to look a bit greener tomorrow or Tuesday...however, I'm on the sidelines until this volatility subsides a bit. The VIX was looking relatively stable a week ago, but I've been on the road and couldn't follow the day to day action...

I'd be interested if anybody out there caught a/ indicator/s that could have provided folks with a little more information to use in considering a move to the safety of G/F.

The economic calendar provides a good look at what's coming up, but the hogh price of oil and gold make me feel a bit bearish...which I really dislike..

God luck to all next week..

FS

Regarding the consolidations for the S&P and EFA, boths charts show a little bounce back in July; more pronounced on the S&P. I am not sure we can compare this way however. For one, we would have to look at the selling volume. Perhaps there was more consistant short selling this summer, and last Friday was a panic sell? Another theory: perhaps this sell was inspired by the street in order to get the Feds attention for another rate cut?:notrust:

I never really understand WHY. but that's not as important as WHEN to me. Yes, I too was on the road last week and stayed invested the whole week. Didn't have access to a computer but 2 days out of 8. Then Friday I had a Brain Fart or something and let it ride again, thinking there might be a little bounce and then a continuation of the down trend. We will see. If I was always right, I'd be working for a Hedgefund.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I never really understand WHY. but that's not as important as WHEN to me. Yes, I too was on the road last week and stayed invested the whole week. Didn't have access to a computer but 2 days out of 8. Then Friday I had a Brain Fart or something and let it ride again, thinking there might be a little bounce and then a continuation of the down trend. We will see. If I was always right, I'd be working for a Hedgefund.

Yup, a little bounce today then continued down. Just like last july 25th? Maybeeee??

 

[nnuut]

Might as well go with it! 100% "G" COB today.
Waiting for the BOTTOM, or is this the BOTTOM?

 

[Uptrend]

No G! Welcome to the coaster ride. We cannot compare the summer activity to now. The big boys are shaking the tree and the weak apples are falling off. Today and tomorrow is all uphill. Wednesday may be caution.

 

[nnuut]

You never know Uptrend, this could be a Down trend don't you think it's possible? If it's anything like July and 1989 and many other consolidations I looked at there is a good chance this is not over. I would much rather miss an up tick than be in during a drop. You have to make up twice the money to get even, figure it out.
Norman