G
Greg
Guest
imported post
Wheels wrote:
I'll stop trying to predict the I-Fund.
I will bow out now,
Greg
Wheels wrote:
Calf Rope!
I'll stop trying to predict the I-Fund.
I will bow out now,
Greg
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Nikkei
- Thread starter biggdog1
- Start date
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
imported post
Greg wrote:
lol greg..we all have pieces of the puzzle, i think...still not solved yet thoimported post
roguewave wrote:
Good luck indeed. Last 12 months Rowe Price Latin America and Emerging Europe & Meditaranian funds "Wupped" EFA(TSP I fund) 6 to 1. Sometimes, International appears to be different thing to different people. Oh well, at least I fund is 20 times cheaper to own.imported post
Sr wrote:
Good luck indeed. Last 12 months Rowe Price Latin America and Emerging Europe & Meditaranian funds "Wupped" EFA (TSP I fund) 6 to 1. Sometimes, International appears to be different thing to different people. Oh well, at least I fund is 20 times cheaper to own.This link is for those who want to keep up with the I fund and get some insight into how some rather large players are veiwing the dollar this coming year.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/01/news/bxfund.php
Buffett and major traders still see a dip in dollar
Snip.
"The investor Warren Buffett and the biggest banks in the currency market - Deutsche Bank, UBS and Citigroup - missed the dollar's rally in 2005. But for 2006, they are standing by their old predictions.
Buffett, the chairman and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, lost almost $1 billion betting on a decline in the dollar last year against currencies like the pound, which suffered its biggest loss since 1992. Analysts at Deutsche Bank, UBS and Citigroup forecast that the dollar would weaken to a new low against the euro, with the European currency rising to $1.40. Instead, the dollar rose 14.4 percent as the euro fell to $1.1838 at the end of the year. The dollar also ended the year at ¥117.945 in New York, up 14.7 percent against the Japanese currency.
These investors and analysts missed the gain by focusing on the U.S. trade deficit instead of a widening gap in interest rates in the dollar's favor, driven by eight Federal Reserve rate increases.
"Who cares about the current account now?" asked Christoph Suetterlin, a currency trader in Zurich at Bank Sarasin. "It's a side issue. The dollar's a good investment with rising interest rates, and it's likely to stay that way."
Buffett and the analysts say they were not wrong, just early.
"There are signs the Fed may stop raising rates, so the dollar may go down," said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist in Zurich at UBS, the large foreign exchange trading bank. Last year was "a headache for dollar bears," he said.
Bankim Chadha, head of macrocurrency research in New York at Deutsche Bank, forecasts a drop in the dollar, with the euro rising to $1.27 by the end of 2006. Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, head of currency strategy at UBS in London, expects a euro rate of $1.30, and Steven Saywell, chief currency strategist at Citigroup in London, is the most bearish on the dollar, at $1.36 for the euro.
Together, the banks account for about 37 percent of the trading in the $1.9 trillion-a-day market for foreign exchange, according to Euromoney magazine.
"2006 is likely to be a year when the dollar will struggle," Saywell said. "We think the Fed is now very close to a peak."
Buffett, who has been selling the dollar since 2002, said the currency should fall because the trade deficit, which grew to a record $68.9 billion in October, keeps widening.
Buffett, based in Omaha, Nebraska, said the United States must introduce tariffs to make imports more costly and do more to promote exports. A larger deficit means more dollars have to be exchanged for foreign currencies to pay for imports.
"I am a bull on sterling versus the U.S. dollar," Buffett told reporters in London in May 24 on a conference call. The pound has since dropped about 6 percent.
Buffett reduced his bets on the dollar's decline to $16.5 billion from $21.5 billion in June, according to a statement from Berkshire Hathaway on Nov. 4. The company, which had $926 million of pretax currency losses in the first half, used forward contracts, or agreements to purchase or sell a currency in the future at a preset price.
"The policies that we're following are likely to lead to a weaker dollar over a long period of years," Buffett said at a news conference in Boise, Idaho, on June 20. "It's not a forecast for next week or next month or even next year."
Debbie Bosanek, an assistant to Buffett in Omaha, said Buffett had no further comment.
The Federal Reserve's eight rate increases last year pushed up its key target rate by two percentage points, more than any other large country's central bank except Indonesia's. And the Fed signaled on Dec. 13 that more increases could be coming.
"We didn't see the big increase in Federal Reserve interest rates," Adam Myers, a currency strategist in London at UBS, said about 2005. "I think that surprised a lot of the market."
During the year, European Central Bank policy makers lifted their benchmark a quarter point, the first increase in five years. The Bank of England cut rates, and Japan's central bank held borrowing costs basically at zero for a fourth year.
Many analysts disagree with traders like Suetterlin on the outlook for interest rates in 2006. When the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to 4.25 percent on Dec. 13, it said interest rates no longer stimulated economic growth.
U.S. 10-year Treasury issues now yield 1.09 percentage points more than similar-maturity German debt. The gap has averaged 0.44 of a percentage point over the past decade. It widened to 1.23 percentage points on Oct. 25, the largest gap since 2000.
Yields on U.S. notes rose above those on British government debt for the first time since July 2003 and now are a quarter-point higher. The U.S. notes yield 2.93 percentage points more than Japan's government bonds.
The New York Board of Trade's dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Swedish krona and Canadian dollar, gained 12.6 percent, the most since 1997.
The record $198.7 billion U.S. current account deficit in the first quarter did nothing to slow the dollar's rise. By the third quarter, the dollar had extended its gains as the shortfall narrowed slightly, to $195.8 billion. The current account is the broadest measure of trade: it includes services, tourism and income from investments.
"The story of the current account deficit allowed traders and analysts to justify any currency prices," said Steve Pearson, chief currency strategist in London at HBOS, a large lender. "Sentiment got overly bearish on the dollar."
Pearson was the most accurate forecaster of exchange rates in the year that ended on Sept. 30.
For 2006, he expects the euro to fall to $1.08.
LONDON The investor Warren Buffett and the biggest banks in the currency market - Deutsche Bank, UBS and Citigroup - missed the dollar's rally in 2005. But for 2006, they are standing by their old predictions.
Buffett, the chairman and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, lost almost $1 billion betting on a decline in the dollar last year against currencies like the pound, which suffered its biggest loss since 1992. Analysts at Deutsche Bank, UBS and Citigroup forecast that the dollar would weaken to a new low against the euro, with the European currency rising to $1.40. Instead, the dollar rose 14.4 percent as the euro fell to $1.1838 at the end of the year. The dollar also ended the year at ¥117.945 in New York, up 14.7 percent against the Japanese currency.
These investors and analysts missed the gain by focusing on the U.S. trade deficit instead of a widening gap in interest rates in the dollar's favor, driven by eight Federal Reserve rate increases.
"Who cares about the current account now?" asked Christoph Suetterlin, a currency trader in Zurich at Bank Sarasin. "It's a side issue. The dollar's a good investment with rising interest rates, and it's likely to stay that way."
Buffett and the analysts say they were not wrong, just early.
"There are signs the Fed may stop raising rates, so the dollar may go down," said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist in Zurich at UBS, the large foreign exchange trading bank. Last year was "a headache for dollar bears," he said.
Bankim Chadha, head of macrocurrency research in New York at Deutsche Bank, forecasts a drop in the dollar, with the euro rising to $1.27 by the end of 2006. Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, head of currency strategy at UBS in London, expects a euro rate of $1.30, and Steven Saywell, chief currency strategist at Citigroup in London, is the most bearish on the dollar, at $1.36 for the euro.
Together, the banks account for about 37 percent of the trading in the $1.9 trillion-a-day market for foreign exchange, according to Euromoney magazine.
"2006 is likely to be a year when the dollar will struggle," Saywell said. "We think the Fed is now very close to a peak."
Buffett, who has been selling the dollar since 2002, said the currency should fall because the trade deficit, which grew to a record $68.9 billion in October, keeps widening.
Buffett, based in Omaha, Nebraska, said the United States must introduce tariffs to make imports more costly and do more to promote exports. A larger deficit means more dollars have to be exchanged for foreign currencies to pay for imports.
"I am a bull on sterling versus the U.S. dollar," Buffett told reporters in London in May 24 on a conference call. The pound has since dropped about 6 percent.
Buffett reduced his bets on the dollar's decline to $16.5 billion from $21.5 billion in June, according to a statement from Berkshire Hathaway on Nov. 4. The company, which had $926 million of pretax currency losses in the first half, used forward contracts, or agreements to purchase or sell a currency in the future at a preset price.
"The policies that we're following are likely to lead to a weaker dollar over a long period of years," Buffett said at a news conference in Boise, Idaho, on June 20. "It's not a forecast for next week or next month or even next year."
Debbie Bosanek, an assistant to Buffett in Omaha, said Buffett had no further comment."
I'll try to comment on this article a little later on this evening if I can. Enjoy.
biggdog1
Member
The Fed's statement on Dec. 13 changed the wording on rates from its Nov. 1 release, when it said ``policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.'' Minutes of the prior Fed meeting released Nov. 22 showed members discussed the need ``before long'' to change their outlook for the benchmark rate, with some worried about the risk of raising it too far.
``The minutes could be a bit of a sour point for the dollar,'' said Sharada Selvanathan, a currency strategist in Singapore at BNP Paribas SA. ``The markestop hiking rates soon and its coming closer to the end, so maybe there will be more talk of this in the minutes.
The euro will advance to $1.19 by tomorrow and $1.22 by the end of the first quarter, she said.
The Fed lifted rates to 4.25 percent last month, the 13th consecutive quarter-percentage point increase since June 2004.
The European Central Bank raised its benchmark for the first time since 2000 on Dec. 1, to 2.25 percent, while the Bank of Japan has kept rates near zero percent since 2001.
The U.S. currency may fall to $1.36 against the euro and 100 yen by the end of the year, Citigroup's Halmarick said. DOES THIS SOUND LIKE GOOD NEWS FOR I-FUND VESTORSLast edited:I Fund Moon Shot
What a day for the I fund. Asian and European markets are up tonight and should provide for a much more normal day tomorrow, unless of course, the dollar rebounds enough to offset tonight's gains or the dollar takes another tumble then watch out.
The Fed pretty much set the course for the I fund this year and quite possibly for a much longer time. This possible change in interest rate policy appeared to have kick started the C and S funds also. These funds are much more difficult for me to comment on due to the affects that inflation in the form of higher energy prices will have on them. The I fund works with energy and not against it so it is much easier for me to predict it then the other markets that the C and S funds are a function of. It's going to be one hell of a wild year. Good luck all.FUTURESTRADER
Active member
EFA Bid:61.49 Ask:61.62 ..sooo looks like slightly positive open
prev close 61.42Similar threads
? I told you ya knuckie-head 
. I up-loaded your trades on your spreadsheet 
. See ya Friday nite. We gonna be doin' good 2day Bub 
!!!
Be careful though, those bigdogs like to jump up on ya and knock ya down! 
