Stocks ended the day off their highs and with modest gains on Friday, but still managed to close at all-time highs - U.S. stocks anyway. The Dow ended the day up 26-points and small caps led the way higher again.
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The F-fund was up slightly and the I-fund lagged badly but may get some payback today after the dollar slipped late Friday.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is at all-time highs and there isn't a heck of a lot of resistance overhead. The only thing in its way now is the fact that it is fairly overbought after 6-consecutive up days, and one-month gain of about 5.4%, and all this during a month that is normally a tough one for stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500, which our S-fund tracks, moved to a new high on Friday, but Friday was an options expiration day and I think this week that resistance area near 1040+ may be a little tougher to hold since it is overbought. But, support is rising so let the battle begin.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) closed at a new 52-week high on Friday. Clearly the momentum is up and fighting the trend is not usually wise, but there are some issues a short-term with rising wedge, the open gap, and being extended. It's up 12% since the April low which is 12-month pace of about 70% so... you get the picture.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index is starting what looks like a new rising flag-like formation and in the last couple of year we've seen these go on day after day. The concern here is the recent spike in oil prices. Can the transportation stocks keep moving higher if the violence in Iraq escalates and oil prices continue to rise?
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds were up on Friday and the 7 to 10 year ETF continues to hold on top of the 50-day EMA. This recent consolidation has been impressive considering the bearish breakdown in the chart to start the month. I was leaning toward being bearish bonds but I may be turning. It all depends which end of this red box breaks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
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