Word of Caution: Beware of becoming a member to other services that do not show a consistent long-term track record
That would include their site
... and ones that do not fully explain their methodology for IFT allocations.
I don't believe there are many, if any, trading systems that reveal their method. That's the point of a proprietary product.
These services involve a high degree of risk since long-term consistency is unproven.
Absolutely.
"Sample EbbChart System," the link brings you to:
http://www.tsptalk.com/samples/ebbchart.html, which shows their 2007 returns of +25.12%. This was the high 'during' that year, not the year-end total of +20.01%.
The high was actually 32%. This sample page was created when we went to premium services and that happened to be the return at the time. All other pages (other than the sample) include 2007 ending return, and current return (or monthly delayed). We are not trying to hide a 20% return.
We consider this devious advertising just to get you to sign on. Though, what about their track record? An important question is "how well did they perform in year 2006?" There are no results!
Ebb joined the message board and began documenting his trades in June 2006. His 7 month return from June 2006 to Dec 2006, was +17%. We don't wish to hide that fact either. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949. It's all documented on the tracker page as well www.tsptalk.com/tsp-tracker.com ... http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_123107.pdf, http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_122906.pdf
Another even more important question is "How are they performing in year 2008?" As of a June 26, they are losing bigtime at
-18.13% for their ETF service and
-5.60% for their TSP system!
First of all, they should not be posting this info, but I wouldn't mind if they also posted their comparable return next to it, as well as the return of our other services. They seem to be doing the cherry picking now.
Though, these results are not shown on their sign-up page. They only show their best year.
No, the updated returns are posted throughout the site.
And to make matters worse, TSPTalk.com has multiple trading systems, and switch the service that is doing the best to the top. Here you could have bought into one service that they promoted as a good system, and when it goes sour, they highlight another one (move it to the top) that is performing better.
I have no idea what they are talking about. Have we switched anything? I rarely even talk about Revshark's +4.3% return in 2008. Perhaps the fact that the higher returns are higher on the Tally? I don't know.
Services like these really concern us. Site visitors who sign up to their service will be at great risk since their methodology is unproven, not to mention that members don't have a clue as to how they are assigning their allocations (i.e., black box system).
Trader Fred has been creating trading systems for 10-15 years. Both his, and Ebb's system are certainly high risk / high reward systems. Not everyone looks at this a bad thing. Revsharks' service has the best return in 2008, and also has fewer subscribers than the other two - because people tend to find it less exciting. To each their own. The 3 services we offer are not a random accident. They are three very unique services so people can pick the approach they prefer.
