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[tsptalk]

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mlk_man wrote:

So Tom, I wonder how many of these new folks would still be here if they "joined" earlier in the year? Or during a bear market as far as that goes? :xSHHHHH, don't say "bea*" around here................

I have an interesting chart of the number of hits the site gets a day. It looks a lot like the market. As the indices go up, so do the hits. As they go down, fewer people show up.

 

[tsptalk]

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vectorman wrote:

Tom's comment today about the mistake he use to make in early 2003 about jumping all the way into the G fund and how it would cost him...

Unfortunately that's when I wish I heard those words of wisdom from past mistakes about jumping totally in the G fund.

v-man -
Thanks for trying to defend me . I may not have been clear in what I was saying, Iwas saying that in early 2004 I would have gone 100% G when I pulled out because the market indicators were not as strong. Now because the indicators are bullish, I won't go morethan 50% G. I will do that again once the indicators turn bearish. So I don't consider that amistake (I've had plenty other of those :shock.

11/17/04
"Today was the reason I don't go 100% into the G fund when my longer term indicators are so bullish. Back in early 2004 when the indicators weren't so attractive, if I jumped out of the market, I jumped all the way out. But not now [the market is bullish]. Luckily I only missed 40% of the nice gains Thursday rather than sitting completely on the sidelines. This is why I use that "discipline" of not going below the 50% to 70% stock allocation when those longer term indicators look so bullish. "

 

[Guest]

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vectorman wrote:

M_M, I need to open a Roth,any suggestions or comments to aid me. What do I needto watch out for? Thanks

The main reason I make more money is because you can play 2X funds and inverse funds. Different ones out there, you'll just have to pick which ones are most suited for you. Be forwarned however, if you're losing in your TSP, you'll lose twice as much in these 2X funds and even more if you play the inverse funds also. Right Joel? :s

 

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

mlk_man wrote:

I'm just giving him a hard time because he doesn't return PM's,

You're not getting my replies?

Not from my past couple of ones. Also, and I know this is in the wrong thread, I wasn't receiving e-mail alerts for awhile there, just started back up last night and seems to be working now. :^

 

[swsop]

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vectorman wrote:

I wish I did join earlier in the year. After reading much of the stuff that's been said in the last month or two. I see that I made alot of rookie mistakes that cost me some shares and extra capital. Tom's comment today about the mistake he use to make in early 2003 about jumping all the way into the G fund and how it would cost him, is just the thing Iwish I could have seen earlier thisyear.That comment made me feel much better after having made the same mistake numerous times. I know you tease Tom about his decision making this summer, but I believe he's looked upon withgratitude from those who followed his advice for last thur and fri. Unfortunately that's when I wish I heard those words of wisdom from past mistakes about jumping totally in the G fund. But hey, I am a rookie and hopefully want make that some mistake too many times.

Me too, Learning from the school of hard knocks

 

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

mlk_man wrote:

So Tom, I wonder how many of these new folks would still be here if they "joined" earlier in the year? Or during a bear market as far as that goes? :xSHHHHH, don't say "bea*" around here................

I have an interesting chart of the number of hits the site gets a day. It looks a lot like the market. As the indices go up, so do the hits. As they go down, fewer people show up.

I would think it would be the opposite..........Anyone can make money in a bull market, but in a bear market, I'd think you would go looking for help..........maybe it's just me.............

 

[tsptalk]

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vectorman wrote:

Tom for those who are just getting in the Bull market out of the G fund. We are buying shares at a higher price.What pit falls do we need to be careful of.

First thing, I don't really look at share prices. I look at where I think the market is likely to go. So if prices are high but I think the market will go up, I'll buy.

When the market does pull back for quite a drop. How does one profit from that in our case. Will we loose out if the market does not return back up to peak where we may have got in.

We won't profit from a pullback but if we can miss market declines it helps us keep our gains. I may have over simplified that.Let me know if you need more.

Or does the market eventually grow above previous peak as it grows in the up coming months.

In a bull market the trend of the market is obviously up. It should make higher lows and higher highs along the way, sort of like looking at a mountain range that gets higher from left to right. There are peaks and valley's but at the end you are higher than you started.

Tom will we continue to see rallies like the ones thur and fri in the up coming days or months?

I never really know what the market is going to do, I just use my long and short term indicators to help me make a better guess. According the short term indicators now, the market appears to havejumped up pretty quickly. We may need a little breather before the rally can continue. But sometimes the market does read my indicators and just keeps going up. So, the odds favor asmall pullback, but that doesn't mean we'll get it.

Also when the market pulls back and you talk about moving a alittle amount into the G fund on the way down, how do you step back in without loosing shares? How can I create more shares in a bull market? In the bear market I could step out high and place into G fund then buy back low and ride back up. What do you do in a bull market? On a down day, like yesterday, can I buy into a fund with a good assurance it will climb back up soon, like it did today. Is that risky?

Again I don't worry about the number of shares. All I care about is percentage gains (and losses). But to answer your question, if you are in the S fund and think the market will pull back so you get into the G fund, and it does pullback, when you get back into the S fund, the share price will be lower because the fund fell.

In a bull market the best thing may be to just stay in the stock funds and not play games. I try to beat the C fund's return (as a challenge) s I am more likelyto try toget into the G fund if I think the market is due to pullback.

THE ONLY WAY TO BEAT THE MARKET INDEX RETURNS IS TO BE OUT OF THE MARKET WHEN IT IS GOING DOWN. YOU CAN NEVER GET A HIGHER GAIN THAN THE INDICES IF YOU JUST STAY 100% IN STOCKS ALL OF THE TIME.

Beating the averages may not be your top priority. If it's not, you may be better of in a solid allocation (see some ok rokid's posts) and stickwith it for the long term.

I hope that helps v-man!
Tom

 

[vectorman]

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Thanks Tom. I wish you had posted your transfer earlier than 11:44am. I tried at 11:50am and the TSP site had some problems. Never had that problem before. You must have quite the following to shutdown the TSP site. Early bird gets the worm.

 

[Timer]

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but in a bear market, I'd think you would go looking for help..........maybe it's just me.............

I did fine in the 90's and through Jan of 04 then I began to flounder. Wasn't loosing but couldn't find a way to go up. I thought I knew how to make money on the TSP but I hadn't encountered a cyclical market before 04. I went looking for help when I couldn't make $$ happen any more. I Googled my way here months ago and am glad I did. :^

 

[rokid]

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swop,

I'd recommend that you read Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street and/or John Bogle's Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor.Both booksprovide a wealth of information to help you formulate the investment strategy that's best for you, i.e.based on your return needs and risk tolerance/capacity. Malkiel is an academic that serves on the boards of several corporations. Bogle started the highly respected and successful Vanguard Group. You can get both books for less than $30 on Amazon.com.You'll make the $30 back many times over! In addition, Frank Armstrong's e-book is free and pretty good. http://www.brill.com/21st/

Most of the discussion on TspTalk is devoted to market timing, i.e. trying to enter and exit the TSP funds to optimize returns. Market timing assumes that the TSP fundsare frequently mispriced and through fundamental or technical analysisyou can buy and sell at the right time to achieve maximum returns.Of course, if you buy and sell at the wrong time, you lose. Malkiel and Bogle, and many, many others, contend thatthe markets are efficient, that theyaren't mispriced or mispriced to the extent that investors (professional or amateur) can consistently take advantage of the mispricing, andtheyhave the research to back them up. They recommend buy and hold, diversified asset allocation, rebalancing, and dollar cost averaging (see the references for explanations).

I've accepted the spirit of Malkiel's and Bogel'srecommendations andamextremely pleasedwith the results.

 

[tsptalk]

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vectorman wrote:

Thanks Tom. I wish you had posted your transfer earlier than 11:44am. I tried at 11:50am and the TSP site had some problems. Never had that problem before. You must have quite the following to shutdown the TSP site. Early bird gets the worm.

I know. Sorry about that. But with the market down this morning it may be a blessing.

 

[S280]

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I am also new. I have been in TSP since 98 and have always invested the max each year. The only problem is I am uneducated in the ways of stocks or mutual funds. I have always had 90% in C and 5 and 5 in the G and F until S and I came around. now 90C, 5S, 5I. I am still quite young and after reading this board believe that I can make up for most of the money I lost along the way. Do you recommend these books for some one who has very little knowledge of stocks and mutal funds?

 

[rokid]

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S280

Yes!

I decided a year to figure out investing. I had just been contributing money into the C fund without having any idea of what I was doing. Similarly, my wife was dumping money into a 401K and 403B. The latter was an absolutely terrible investment - as are many 403Bs.

Since then, I've probably read 20 books and hundreds of articles. In my opinion, Malkiel's and Bogle's books provide the best, most comprehensive introduction to investing. No complicated, exotic strategies.Just down to earth, solid advice. They both address all of the important investing concepts and strategies. In addition, since bothadvocate index funds, e.g. the TSP funds, they discuss concepts and strategies directly applicable to TSP investing. Reading one or both will provide you with the information you need to make intelligent decisions about howto allocate your TSP investments, how to change your allocations as your circumstances change, e.g. age,and whether to engage inmarket timing and technical analysis.Both authors are opinionated and entertaining, particularly Bogle. Finally, for the math-phobic, no equations!

 

[Guest]

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Thanks rokid just what I needed, will get them this weekend. Was trying to find some of your post as per Tom, found them by doing a search. Will stay tuned into the site and not lurk.

 

[rokid]

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swsop,

Great! Good luck!

 

[vectorman]

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Tom, I missed out on a big portion of the back to back bull mkt rally. I got stuck at 1162 while the market rose. Waited for a pull back, was afraid I might miss out on something friday, so bit the bullet and reentered atthe top30c 10s 10I. With that move I had to pay more for a share, I also noticed I got hit in the pocket for making the move up. Fri I went all the way in hopes of picking up something extra. I haven't done very well so far this year. I was on track ,but missing those two rallies caused me to make some emotional decisions that cost me. I made rookie mistakes that I regret, but whats done is done. I'm down 300-400 shares ,I have 10yrs to retirement, I'm fully vested; have I wrecked my TSP retirement by losing that many shares?If I did, can it be fixed. Looking for some peace of mind. Thanks I always appreciate your answers

 

[tsptalk]

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v-man -
Losing shares is no big deal. Making money is the goal. We are back ina bull market so being invested during down days is just a temporary loss. Stay the course and you'll be fine.

 

[Guest]

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Tom

Very good confident booster, making money is the goal.

 

[S280]

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I bought the one from Bogle yesterday. It looks......daunting, but I have to learn sometime or another. Better to do it now.

Steve

 

[ou81200]

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Vectorman---

You can't dwell on the past. I too missed out on the run two weeks ago. I was deer hunting and put everything safely in the G-fund untill I got back. Then after I got back, I hesitated untill I could get the feel of the market. I also took into account what Tom was doing (Thanks Tom).

My attitude is what done is done. There is allways opportunity to make up losses or make up for lost opportunities.

Hang in there pal:^.