2/11/13
With winter storms pounding the Northeast on Friday, it almost seemed like a typical holiday trading day. Volume was light and the bears didn't put up much of a fight as we saw new highs in some of the major indices. The Dow gained 49-points on the day.
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Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 151"]
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[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
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[TD="align: right"] +0.0043%
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[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] +0.02%
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[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] -0.14%
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[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] -0.27%
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[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] -0.80%
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Because of that holiday-like atmosphere, I'm not overly excited by the new high, although looking at the index charts, and many individual stock charts, it is tough to get very bearish about this market, unless you are looking at the resistance and speculating that momentum is going to slow down or turn.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I'm guilty of speculating, but that's what I do. With the S&P 500 hitting 1518 on Friday, it is just 8 points, or less than 0.5%, away from the 1525 target that I have speculated could be a top of this leg up. It's game on for the market to prove me wrong this week.
The Nasdaq also made a new high on Friday but is at the top of its very tight rising trading channel. I know - not I think - I know that the open gap created on January 2 will get filled. What I don't know is when. This week? Next month? Next fall? Who knows, but the trend and trading channel are still pointing up and that trend and channel will have to be broken first before any I should talk any more about that gap being filled. In other words, I shouldn't get too bearish until the trends breakdown.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transports also put in a new high - on light volume.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I think the bears could use any positive open by the emotional early Monday morning crowd, to do a little selling. Whether they can keep any kind of pressure on the bulls remains to be seen, but they should make some attempt to sell last week's light volume rally.
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And thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
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