From MarketWatch's technical analyst: Michael Ashbaugh Last Update: 10:54 AM ET Jun 6, 2006
"It's also worth noting that the
way Monday's sell-off from resistance occurred was slightly ominous technically. Admittedly, total volume was moderate Monday with the NYSE turning 2.30 billion shares and just 1.71 billion traded on the Nasdaq.
Yet despite the limited volume, Monday's volume
internals touched bearish extremes. Declining volume outpaced advancing volume by a massive
11 to 1 on the NYSE and an unusually strong 6.6 to 1 on the Nasdaq.
And even setting aside tedious technical details, there's a more intuitive way to view recent weakness.
On May 17, the Dow industrials plunged 214 points, marking its worst single-day loss in more than three years - going back to March 2003.
About two weeks later, on May 30, it carved out a comparable 184-point single-day loss, followed by Monday's steep 199-point loss.
So when the Dow's regularly carving out 200-point single-day losses, among its worst in three years, the U.S. markets aren't yet on solid footing.
Looking ahead, the same general areas introduced in
mid-May remain in play. To adjust slightly, the relevant resistance currently holds as follows:
- S&P 500 resistance around its 50-day moving average of 1,294.
- Nasdaq resistance spanning from 2,230 to 2,232 - the cross section of the 200-day moving average and the February low.
- Dow resistance at the June high of 11,285.
If the indices would break decisively back above those areas, you might consider whether the recent downturn has run its course.
Without that break higher, the downtrend established in
mid-May remains intact, and new long positions can wait until better signs of a bottom are in place."
So where is the floor? Jump back today or 1987 style meltdowm immanent??