NAAIM

From Mark Arbeter:

The NAAIM Exposure Index has risen back to 93% from 71% last week. The index is very close to the danger zone that exists above 100%. Small-trader call buying remains elevated while large-trader call buying remains very high. When these things have happened in the past, short-term returns from the S&P 500 were less than average.
 
Most recent reading is at 77, a 10 point drop from last week. Largely inconclusive and doesn't indicate extremes in either direction. However, back below that 90 level indicates that there is some that "cash on the sidelines".
 
Currently at 55, lowest since mid-May 2021 when it hit 44. 55 was seen at the September 2020 lows.
 
That "dip" is over. We're back to burning red hot.

NAAIM back at 98, which is actually higher than levels seen at recent high in September. That doesn't leave much fairy dust on the sidelines to push it higher.
 
Headed bearish:
[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12/08/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]69.46[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]48.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]78.33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12/01/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]87.87[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-17[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]59.91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/24/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]103.14[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]97.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]112.44[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]46.63[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/17/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]102.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]115.06[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/10/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]103.69[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]97.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]109.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]43.41[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/03/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]107.99[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]89.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]108.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/27/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]103.35[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]65[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.06[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33.03[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/20/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]98.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]87.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/13/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]64.46[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]82.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]115[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/06/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]68.60[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]51.09[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Reading for this week: 52. This is a better level to be buying than selling. Since the March 2020 bottom the only times it was lower were March 2021 and May 2021. September 2020 and September 2021 came close.
 
Turning back up, slowly.
[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12/22/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]67.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]51.45[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12/15/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.22[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]11.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]61.89[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12/08/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]69.46[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]48.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]78.33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12/01/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]87.87[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-17[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]59.91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/24/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]103.14[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]97.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]112.44[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]46.63[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/17/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]102.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]115.06[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/10/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]103.69[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]97.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]109.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]43.41[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/03/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]107.99[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]89.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]108.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/27/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]103.35[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]65[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.06[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33.03[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/20/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]98.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]87.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
NAAIM continues to edge higher but fewer all in Bullish:

[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/09/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.80[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]121[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40.53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/02/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]62.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]49.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/26/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.39[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/19/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]56.73[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-125[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]91.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]76.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/12/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]74.78[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.02[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/05/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]89.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]78.63[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]42.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
NAAIM plummets and has largest bearish component (-200) in a long time (September 23 2020)
[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/16/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.49[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]65.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/09/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.80[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]121[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40.53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/02/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]62.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]49.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/26/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.39[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/19/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]56.73[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-125[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]91.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]76.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/12/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]74.78[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.02[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/05/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]89.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]78.63[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]42.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12/29/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.71[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]61.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]38.94[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12/22/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]67.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]51.45[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12/15/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.22[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]11.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]61.89[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
As expected, further bearish sentiment. Drops from 53.49 to 44.41
[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/23/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]44.41[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]71.64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/16/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.49[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]65.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/09/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.80[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]121[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40.53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/02/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]62.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]49.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/26/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.39[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/19/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]56.73[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-125[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]91.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]76.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/12/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]74.78[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.02[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/05/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]89.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]78.63[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]42.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12/29/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.71[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]61.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]38.94[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12/22/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]67.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]51.45[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
NAAIM down to 30.3 and even the most bullish have pulled back. Haven't seen a number below 40 since April 2020.
[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]03/02/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30.30[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/23/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]44.41[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]71.64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/16/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.49[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]65.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/09/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.80[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]121[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40.53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/02/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]62.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]49.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/26/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.39[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/19/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]56.73[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-125[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]91.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]76.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/12/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]74.78[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.02[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/05/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]89.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]78.63[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]42.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12/29/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.71[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]61.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]38.94[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Slightly more bullish, but only slightly. Up from 30.3 to 42.58.

[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]03/09/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]42.58[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.96[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]03/02/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30.30[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/23/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]44.41[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]71.64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/16/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.49[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]65.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/09/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.80[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]121[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40.53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/02/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]62.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]49.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/26/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.39[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/19/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]56.73[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-125[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]91.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]76.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/12/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]74.78[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.02[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/05/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]89.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]78.63[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]42.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Continuing that slow rise from 42 to 46, a few less bearish:

[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]03/16/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]46.68[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.48[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]03/09/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]42.58[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.96[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]03/02/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30.30[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/23/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]44.41[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]71.64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/16/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.49[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]65.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/09/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.80[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]121[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40.53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/02/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]62.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]49.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/26/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.39[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/19/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]56.73[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-125[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]91.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]76.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/12/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]74.78[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.02[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
The number went higher but there are a couple of more bearish managers on the edges. -150 (more than the 100 last week) in the Bearish column and only 125 in the Bullish (down from 200):

[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]03/23/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.69[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]125[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]65.32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]03/16/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]46.68[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.48[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]03/09/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]42.58[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.96[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]03/02/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30.30[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/23/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]44.41[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]71.64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/16/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.49[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]65.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/09/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.80[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]121[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40.53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]02/02/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]62.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]49.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/26/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.39[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/19/2022[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]56.73[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-125[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]91.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]76.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
So there are more bears and less bulls (or more bearish and less bullish overall), but NAAIM went higher. How does that work?
 
So there are more bears and less bulls (or more bearish and less bullish overall), but NAAIM went higher. How does that work?

I believe that the change in the number is a reflection not of the finite "number" of managers who are bearish or bullish, it is a reflection of the fact that while the true bears are more bearish and the true bulls are less bullish, the average (see Quartile 2 and 3) are still more bullish than last week?
 
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