MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Looking at the S&P 500:



On Monday, we had the Stochastics and PPO crossover, and heading higher. We also have price movement break above the 50 day EMA. That was enough to trigger a buy signal, although I waited until Wednesday to make my IFT's due to the weak breakthrough on Monday. Note the positive divergence of the PPO (middle indicator), and price action. These are all positive signs.

This is my 6th trade for the year.

We are right at the resistance level ceiling of 1224, but if we can clear that next week, things will improve technically.

Time will tell if this is the beginning of an "end of year rally" or not. Honestly, I have no idea why the Stock Market wants to move higher here. With all the financial problems in the world, I'm amazed that we haven't seen a bloodbath (yet). I expect it will come soon enough.

To your success!

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

Hi Mr. Ross, welcome to the board. I think you are starting to confuse the board, at least you are me. I just wanted to post a couple remarks you have made on another thread that are a bit confusing with what you are saying now. Hopefully you won't be starting a new thread every time you have something to say as it makes it a bit harder to "keep things straight". Perhaps you can start your own thread?

On the 12th at 11:10pm ET you wrote "Just moved from G/F to C/S/I. Relatively weak breakout today, but enough to confirm my signal."

On the 13th at 11:48pm ET you wrote "We need to break above 11,613 on the Dow to confirm."

Now you just wrote "On Monday, we had the Stochastics and PPO crossover, and heading higher. We also have price movement break above the 50 day EMA. That was enough to trigger a buy signal, although I waited until Wednesday to make my IFT's due to the weak breakthrough on Monday."

So when did you make your IFT, Monday or Wednesday? The Dow didn't break out past 11613 until Friday?

On the 13th at 10:34pm you also wrote "Since 2007 (when I started my Timing System) the S&P 500 has a cumulative return of -18.5% (as of the end of last week). My Timing System has had a cumulative return of 82.5%. Not trying to brag, just providing my statistics."

Is this return based on systemic entries or based on your decision to wait a few days after a confirmed signal change because the breakthrough was weak?

Just trying to get a clear picture. You seem to have had some success in the past and I hope it continues for you. If these are the only three perimeters you use, I can tell you from experience that I have my doubts about this system working during tight trading periods. Hopefully you will start an account on the autotracker so everyone can follow along. I think you've picked a particularly good time to start one.

Good luck to you!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

Hello Intrepid_Timer! Thank you for your warm welcome!

I just became a member here, so please forgive me if I've posted in the wrong areas. I started my original thread in the "Technical Analysis" section, because I didn't know where else to start, and felt that my chart would appeal to those who enjoy the technical aspects of trading. NASA1974 suggested that I begin a thread here in the "Members Account Talk" area. Is this what you mean by "Perhaps you can start your own thread? "

Technically speaking, my indicators flashed a "Buy" signal on Monday, Oct 10. However, I waited until Wednesday, Oct 12 to make my IFT transactions, due to the weak signal on Monday and Tuesday.

No matter how well my system has worked over the past X years, I sometimes have that "what if" feeling when I make a trade. Hence my comments about the "Dow needing to clear 11,613 to confirm" that the trade is going in the right direction.

My system is based on actual trade dates. Some of the trades were made on the same day as the Buy or Sell signal days, and some were a day or two later (to confirm the market direction).

In regards to: "If these are the only three perimeters you use, I can tell you from experience that I have my doubts about this system working during tight trading periods" let me say this...

As you well know, there is no perfect trading system. My Timing System is a fairly simple trend following model. I was hoping to design a system that could be easily followed, powerful, and simple to implement. I think I have done that.

There are always trade-offs when designing a system. You want it to get you out near the tops, and back in near the bottoms of major market moves. However, if you design it to get too close to the tops and bottoms, you'll get multiple whipsaw trades. Hopefully I've struck a good balance between the two.

There have been times when the market trades within a tight range, and a signal is generated that doesn't produce a profitable trade. However, because the markets haven't moved much within that tight range, there's usually not much lost (or gained) during that time period. With an average of 5 trades a year, this doesn't happen very often.

I just started an autotracker account this weekend, and am looking forward to seeing if I can at least make a respectable showing.

Hope this helps!

 

[Khotso]

Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

Looking at the S&P 500:

... Time will tell if this is the beginning of an "end of year rally" or not. Honestly, I have no idea why the Stock Market wants to move higher here. With all the financial problems in the world, I'm amazed that we haven't seen a bloodbath (yet). I expect it will come soon enough. ...

My theory on why it may move higher (keep in mind that I'm extremely inexperienced at this): Seems to me this rally was based on relatively low volume. Could that mean there's a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines that won't be able to resist going into equities if the trend continues upward, thus fueling higher highs? It strikes me that there has been a fairly strong correlation between the Euro news and the market trends -- going back at least as far as late July. This latest rally was triggered by Euro news as well. Meanwhile, bears who see major structural and deficit problems leading inevitably to a market collapse, sit on the sideline. Euro news continues to be promising. Will big money bears be able to resist if this rally continues or at least continues an upward albeit somewhat volatile trend? I'm guessing not, which maybe means we will see the start of an end of year rally next week or shortly after. Keeping my fingers crossed!

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

Hello Intrepid_Timer! Thank you for your warm welcome!

I just became a member here, so please forgive me if I've posted in the wrong areas. I started my original thread in the "Technical Analysis" section, because I didn't know where else to start, and felt that my chart would appeal to those who enjoy the technical aspects of trading. NASA1974 suggested that I begin a thread here in the "Members Account Talk" area. Is this what you mean by "Perhaps you can start your own thread? "

Technically speaking, my indicators flashed a "Buy" signal on Monday, Oct 10. However, I waited until Wednesday, Oct 12 to make my IFT transactions, due to the weak signal on Monday and Tuesday.

No matter how well my system has worked over the past X years, I sometimes have that "what if" feeling when I make a trade. Hence my comments about the "Dow needing to clear 11,613 to confirm" that the trade is going in the right direction.

My system is based on actual trade dates. Some of the trades were made on the same day as the Buy or Sell signal days, and some were a day or two later (to confirm the market direction).

In regards to: "If these are the only three perimeters you use, I can tell you from experience that I have my doubts about this system working during tight trading periods" let me say this...

As you well know, there is no perfect trading system. My Timing System is a fairly simple trend following model. I was hoping to design a system that could be easily followed, powerful, and simple to implement. I think I have done that.

There are always trade-offs when designing a system. You want it to get you out near the tops, and back in near the bottoms of major market moves. However, if you design it to get too close to the tops and bottoms, you'll get multiple whipsaw trades. Hopefully I've struck a good balance between the two.

There have been times when the market trades within a tight range, and a signal is generated that doesn't produce a profitable trade. However, because the markets haven't moved much within that tight range, there's usually not much lost (or gained) during that time period. With an average of 5 trades a year, this doesn't happen very often.

I just started an autotracker account this weekend, and am looking forward to seeing if I can at least make a respectable showing.

Hope this helps!

Fair enough. I learned the hard that simplicity doesn't always work as I modified my own system in May down to 8 indicators from 13, getting rid of 5 of my more volatile indicators in order to stay in trades longer during the bull rally. This hurt me big time in August so I switched back to my more sophisticated model in mid-August and things are back to performing the way I envisioned in the first place, that is nice gains in short periods with less risk. (Up 14.35% since reverting back)

Good luck to you and I look forward to comparing our returns in the future. Like I said, I think you picked a good time to start an autotracker account.

BTW, what was your return last year and so far this year?

 

[KevinD]

Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

Since this thread is in the members account talk area, Tom or one of the moderators will probably change the title of the thread to "MrJohnRoss's account talk" in keeping with all the other threads in this sub-forum. This is where you will post relevant information about your strategy and your IFT's.

Welcome, Good Luck and thanks for your contributions!

 

[nnuut]

Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

Since this thread is in the members account talk area, Tom or one of the moderators will probably change the title of the thread to "MrJohnRoss's account talk" in keeping with all the other threads in this sub-forum. This is where you will post relevant information about your strategy and your IFT's.

Welcome, Good Luck and thanks for your contributions!

Actually Members are free to discuss anything they desire in their Account Talk threads, it's up to them. It is their thread and other Members shouldn't post anything that is off the subject that the Member has chosen to discuss.

Good Posting
​

 

[KevinD]

Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

Just trying to help out the new guy.

 

[nnuut]

Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

This thread is now Named MrJohnRoss' Account Talk thanks guys!

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

This thread is now Named MrJohnRoss' Account Talk thanks guys!

MrJohnRoss, thanks to NNUUT you now have your account talk thread named after you so people know where to find you, and you always have a spot to let others know what you are up to!
You can also link your AutoTracker account to your account talk thread....see the 'sticky' at the top of the Account Talk forum.
You are off to a great start, thoroughly enjoy your posts!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

IntrepidTimer:

Here are the annual returns for the S&P 500 compared to my Timing System:

[TABLE="class: MsoNormalTable"]
[TR]
[TD]

Year:​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

S&P​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

TIMING​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 98"]

2007​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

3.5%​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

11.7%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 98"]

2008​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

-38.5%​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

-3.9%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 98"]

2009​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

23.5%​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

32.5%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 98"]

2010​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

12.8%​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

21.8%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 98"]

2011 YTD​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

-2.6%​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

6.9%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 98"]

CAGR*​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

-3.0%​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 90"]

13.7%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]



Looking forward to learning more about your system as well!

Thank you KevinD, nnuut, and uscfanhawaii for all your help!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Technical indicators improved significantly today. The S&P finally broke through resistance at 1230 to close at 1238. Another good sign was that the market closed very near the high. Glad I made my trade to get back in the market last week. Ultimately I believe that this is a short term rally within a bigger bear market, but I will take what the market gives me, even if it's for just a few weeks of gains.




I'll be watching this weekend to see what Germany and France come up with for their huge bail-out problems. The debt crisis is not going to go away. Very scary stuff. I believe that the Euro will eventually implode, and the financial shock waves will be like a tsunami across the globe.

Also hear rumblings of huge derivative problems with our big banks (Bank of America, etc). Talk about financial armageddon!

In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy the beautiful weather here in Northern California. Hope you all have a fun and relaxing weekend!

John

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's an updated chart of the S&P 500 compared to my Timing System:



Note that for every $100 invested in the "Stock Market" (S&P 500, i.e. C Fund), your account would only be worth $87.31.

The same $100 invested in the "Stock Market", but using a good Timing System, would now be worth $187.14. That's more than TWICE the return of "Buy & Hold", and it's done with about 1/3 LESS risk. (Less risk and higher returns is the holy grail of investing).

If you ever hear someone say that it's impossible to time the market, feel free to direct them here, or to my website. I'll be glad to enlighten them.

To your success,

John Ross

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

If you ever hear someone say that it's impossible to time the market, feel free to direct them here, or to my website. I'll be glad to enlighten them.

To your success,

John Ross

Website? Thought so...............

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Hey Intrepid_Timer!

Yeah, I put together a site this year, thinking I could make a little money. So far it's been a lot of work, and very little reward. Help me out... I'm thinking of giving away my information (like I do here at TSPTalk), and just let advertising pay the bills. What do you think? I hate trying to sell my system, even though I think it's pretty darn good.

Thanks,
John

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Hey Intrepid_Timer!

Yeah, I put together a site this year, thinking I could make a little money. So far it's been a lot of work, and very little reward. Help me out... I'm thinking of giving away my information (like I do here at TSPTalk), and just let advertising pay the bills. What do you think? I hate trying to sell my system, even though I think it's pretty darn good.

Thanks,
John

John, from what I've read, you don't even have a TSP account and have never worked for the government..............

 

[Bquat]

Here's an updated chart of the S&P 500 compared to my Timing System:

View attachment 15851

Note that for every $100 invested in the "Stock Market" (S&P 500, i.e. C Fund), your account would only be worth $87.31.

The same $100 invested in the "Stock Market", but using a good Timing System, would now be worth $187.14. That's more than TWICE the return of "Buy & Hold", and it's done with about 1/3 LESS risk. (Less risk and higher returns is the holy grail of investing).

If you ever hear someone say that it's impossible to time the market, feel free to direct them here, or to my website. I'll be glad to enlighten them.

To your success,

John Ross

I noticed in your charts you show no little gains or drops in the blank areas. Do you use stops on the down and no activity until the next buy? We can't stop right at the lose point. Our trades are at market close and your chart shows cutoffs at the same amount of loss which happen during a trading day. We can't do this.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

John, from what I've read, you don't even have a TSP account and have never worked for the government..............

Like I mentioned before, I manage my wife's TSP account. Is giving away my information here at TSPTalk a problem??

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I noticed in your charts you show no little gains or drops in the blank areas. Do you use stops on the down and no activity until the next buy? We can't stop right at the lose point. Our trades are at market close and your chart shows cutoffs at the same amount of loss which happen during a trading day. We can't do this.

When a "Sell" signal is given, I go to a cash position (G Fund, which is somewhat equivalent to a money market fund). Most money market funds typically pay about 0.1%. I just assume a zero percent return, hence the flat line. Your actual returns would be higher.

When a sell signal is given, it's usually at the end of the day. I make my TSP transfer before 12:00 Eastern time, usually the following day. Typically, the market has fallen somewhat, and that's the reason the system has triggered a sell signal in the first place.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Like I mentioned before, I manage my wife's TSP account. Is giving away my information here at TSPTalk a problem??

Not that I am aware of. Whether you worked for the Feds or had a TSP account yourself doesn't matter to me. You manage your wife's TSP, that should be good enough for anyone who has concerns.

The way I look at it, you are providing good information for those of us with no set investment strategy.

Keep us posted on your moves.