mojo's Account Talk

[mojo]

"The existance of 1.3 quadrillion dollars in derivatives...that is a 1 with 15 zeros behind it. The laws of nature, physics, and common sense predict hyperinflation soon."

 

[fabijo]

This is from 08 and doesn't include whats been added in 09. I just keeps going strait up like that indefinately. Everything looks good right?

Your chart only goes up to around 130 Billion. The latest is over 600 Billion. Here's an updated chart:

And here it is zoomed in to just the past 10 years:

Or you could get the raw numbers here:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/h3.htm

 

[turbo23dog]

Isnt the real issue here that the govt wants to induce inflation to stem the losses on the value of real estate (deflation)?

I'll leave it to the experts to debate if this is a good idea or not but we had inflation in the early 80s and it was brought into control in about two-three years...

 

[mojo]

Here's one to scale on the original. Think you might want to short that?

 

[mojo]

Isnt the real issue here that the govt wants to induce inflation to stem the losses on the value of real estate (deflation)?

I'll leave it to the experts to debate if this is a good idea or not but we had inflation in the early 80s and it was brought into control in about two-three years...

Your kidding right? Look at the scale of spending in the 80s vs now.

They are obviously trying to reinflate but look at the scale.

 

[fabijo]

:nuts: wow! Get the Al Gore lift ready, so we can show that chart!!

 

[mojo]

Open Letter To The FDIC Ombudsman

"This program has the potential to shift literally $500 billion or more in losses onto the taxpayer, not through the operation of "bad luck" but rather through what amounts to a bid rigging operation."

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/894-Open-Letter-To-The-FDIC-Ombudsman.html

 

[mojo]

:nuts: wow! Get the Al Gore lift ready, so we can show that chart!!

Yea now think about showing a chart with 1.3 quadrillion dollars in derivatives to the same scale. You'd probably be scrolling all week and never reach the top.

 

[mojo]

[SIZE=+1]

1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators

Chart locations are an approximate indication only

1. "We will not have any more crashes in our time."
   - John Maynard Keynes in 1927
2. "I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
   - E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
   "There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
   - Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
3. "No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
   - Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
4. "There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
   - Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
5. "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
   - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
   "This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
   - Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
   "There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
   - Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929
   "We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
   - Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929
6. "This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
   - R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
   "Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
   - E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
   "Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
   - R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
7. "The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
   - Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929
   "Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
   - The Times of London, November 2, 1929
   "The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
   - Business Week, November 2, 1929
   "...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
   - Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929
8. "... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
   - HES, November 10, 1929
   "The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
   - Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929
   "In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
   - Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929
   "Financial storm definitely passed."
   - Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
9. "I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
   - Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
   "I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
   - Herbert Hoover, December 1929
   "[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
   - U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929
10. "For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
    - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930
11. "...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
    - Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930
12. "There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
    - Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930
13. "The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
    - Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
    "... the outlook continues favorable..."
    - HES Mar 29, 1930
14. "... the outlook is favorable..."
    - HES Apr 19, 1930
15. "While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
    - Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
    "...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
    - HES May 17, 1930
    "Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
    - Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930
16. "... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
    - HES June 28, 1930
17. "... the present depression has about spent its force..."
    - HES, Aug 30, 1930
18. "We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
    - HES Nov 15, 1930
19. "Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
    - HES Oct 31, 1931
20. "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
    - President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

Colin J. Seymour, June 2001
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking
20 June 2001

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqsT4xnKZPg&feature=related
[/SIZE]

 

[turbo23dog]

Your kidding right? Look at the scale of spending in the 80s vs now.

They are obviously trying to reinflate but look at the scale.

Its definitely no half-step... swinging for the fences...

 

[mojo]

Its definitely no half-step... swinging for the fences...

I'm no economics expert either but what we have going on here seems unprecedented. It hurts just to watch.

 

[Birchtree]

The truth is that hard sell offs lead to hard buy ups. You could be watching a classic buying panic V-market bottom as we rocket to the upside. Profitability resides in the ride ahead. We have the possibility of a minimum 50% rally off this bottom - let's see how much the next six trading days can deliver in percentages.

 

[mojo]

The truth is that hard sell offs lead to hard buy ups. You could be watching a classic buying panic V-market bottom as we rocket to the upside. Profitability resides in the ride ahead. We have the possibility of a minimum 50% rally off this bottom - let's see how much the next six trading days can deliver in percentages.

I'm not going to deny we could see a 50% rally Birch, it's certainly one of many possibilities. If this rally does go to 50% where would that put you?

If it's not the real bottom I have no doubt you will ride it right back down after the rally. You have much more faith in the system than I. I see it as completely corrupt at this point.

I am in a situation (TSP) where I can't withdraw my money in toto so I will continue to do the best I can with the game.

Good luck. I know it must feel great to believe we have bottomed and that we're headed toward happy days again everyday. I just don't buy it.

I will continue to scurry in and out grab what I can.

 

[Birchtree]

You and I are making a market. The longer you see dark clouds the better the market will perform.

 

[mojo]

You and I are making a market. The longer you see dark clouds the better the market will perform.

Hey but really Birch what do you think of that chart below. Everything looks good?

 

[mojo]

IMF says clean up banks to tackle dire world crisis

By Jonathan Lynn
GENEVA (Reuters) - The world is in a dire economic crisis, but no recovery is possible until the financial sector is cleaned up, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.
The crisis will push millions into poverty and unemployment, risking social unrest and even war, and urgent action is required, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.
"Bluntly the situation is dire," he told a meeting on the crisis at the International Labour Organisation, a United Nations agency representing unions, employers and governments that studies labour issues.

http://in.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idINIndia-38656120090323?sp=true

 

[mojo]

Fed Planning Inflationary Dollar Destroying 15-Fold Increase In US Monetary Base
3) Retirement inflows into treasuries are over

"The steady accumulation of treasuries by government retirement funds has helped absorb the supply of treasury bonds for over three decades. This accumulation of government debt to secure the retirement of baby boomers helped drive down treasury yields and fund deficit spending. As of September 2008, the four biggest of these funds held 3.3 trillion treasuries:

2150 billion (Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund)
615 billion (Federal employees retirement fund)
318 billion (federal hospital insurance trust fund)
217 billion (federal disability insurance trust fund) (for more on these four funds, see where social security tax amounts are deposited )

3300 billion total

Today, the accumulation of treasuries by government retirement funds is over. Baby boomers are beginning to retire, increasing outflows, and unemployment is rising, cutting inflows. More importantly, the 3.3 trillion already accumulated in these funds provides an enormous political incentive to prevent treasury prices from collapsing. Faced with a run on treasuries, politicians, rather than explaining to baby boomers that their retirement savings are gone, will instruct the fed to monetize treasury bonds. This alone will prevent the fed from reversing its current balance sheet expansion. "

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9594.html

 

[steveg]

mojo --

I really appreciate that chart you appended to this thread yesterday. So strikingly familiar...

Steve

 

[mojo]

mojo --

I really appreciate that chart you appended to this thread yesterday. So strikingly familiar...

Steve

It's all copy and paste plagerism.

 

[steveg]

In any case, mojo, it was really interesting to read all those statements made during the crash. If I didn't know better, I'd think I was reading quotes from the past several months...

Thanks!

Steve