Stocks were mixed on Monday with the Dow losing 26-points and the S&P 500 down about a quarter of a percent, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 closed with small gains. The Dow made several attempts to move into positive territory yesterday, but it couldn't quite get there.
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The I-fund had an interesting day with the major European and Asian markets showing small losses and some gains, but the dollar continued to spike higher. The EFA was down over 1%, but the I-fund was due a little fair value payback and it ended the day down 'just' 0.43%.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was down about a quarter of a percent keeping the index within its trading range and again closing between 200 and 201. Volume was down again, which is not a negative on a down day, and the index remains above the key 20 and 50-day EMAs.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The current pattern seems to repeating what we saw earlier this year, so if it continues, the sideway consolidation could last a while longer. By late March and early April, volatility picked up before the upside resumed.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-Fund) ended the day basically flat with the help of strength in the smaller stocks. (The Wilshire is made up of small and mid-cap stocks.)
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 closed the day with a 2-point gain and is back in the rising trading channel after bouncing off of the 20-day EMA on Friday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) posted a 1.06% loss yesterday and the technical damage to the chart is obvious as the rising trading channel has been convincingly broken.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The interest thing is that the German DAX, the French CAC, the London FTSE, and even the Japanese Nikkei, all held up OK. These are the big boys of the EAFE and I-fund. By the way, take a look at the positive reversal day in the FTSE.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And here is what has been happening to the dollar. This is what is putting pressure on the I-fun right now. The international indices themselves have actually been recovering well.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The IEF (Bonds / F-fund) was down modestly but once again it closed well below the daily high and it is still testing some key support at the old breakout level and the 50-day EMA. It's getting close to make or break for bonds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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