Market Talk

[vectorman]

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Ok, I know alot of people take a peek at this site before 12est. Does anyone know why the I fund is taking a hit today? Thanks

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/European_Stock_Markets/european_stock_markets.html

 

[vectorman]

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Cowboy, why are you shying away from the I fund for tomorrow. Just curious. Wouldn't that be a nice hedge? Thanks

 

[Guest]

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vectorman wrote:

Ok, I know alot of people take a peek at this site before 12est. Does anyone know why the I fund is taking a hit today? Thanks

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/European_Stock_Markets/european_stock_markets.html

The dollar has been trending up..that's why. Try to think of the I fund as a combo C fund and reverse dollar currency fund. Even tho the I fund is down, its still down less than the C fund so far today. The S fund is holding its ground..which its supposed to do in January.

 

[vectorman]

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Thanks Saraho. I just moved 100%I for tomorrow. I appreciate yourcomments.

I noticed that fridays are usually pretty good for the I fund.

 

[Spaf]

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Mike wrote:

You both lost me.

Mike... You need to stay up with tekno! Otherwise he will slip a ""Classic"" past ya. Like: "Confidence is going after Moby Dick in a rowboat and taking the tartar sauce with you."
TSP is tarter sauce prepared, a recipe of G, F, C, S,and I.
You with us now Mike!

We ain't got nutting else to do with the market stuck in a fog bank! We have a new primary movement it's called a dribble market! Lost in the fog of 2005!

I'll go one better than tekno and say "this darn correction has flat worn out it's welcome!"

Oil was reported to top $48. and the marketat middaylost groundas a strong profit report and bullish outlook from Apple Computer failed to inspire any follow-through to the previous session's late rally.

I'm going back to the hanger with a new transfer of 50g, 15c, 20s and 15i. Got to safeguard funds while away from a computer for the weekend.

Rgds Spaf

 

[ou81200]

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Any ideas how the dollar and I fund are doing today??? TIA:?

 

[Guest]

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Dollar up....I down...C down.. S up...F is also upa little. Sort of a typical albeit weak January day for US stocks.

You might think that a strong dollar would benefit C and S, but in fact, the opposite is true. The dollar's strength islargely coming as a result of anticipated higher interest rates, whichshould also cut into profits..

 

[cowboy]

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vectorman wrote:

Cowboy, why are you shying away from the I fund for tomorrow. Just curious. Wouldn't that be a nice hedge? Thanks

I guess its anyones guess what the I fund is going to do and a lot of theories on why to stay in the I fund. I believe I mentioned in another post that it is my theory the I fund nor areany of the others,are going up at the moment and a .09 cent gain in this fund is absolutely nothing because of its voltility. I am currently in my bearish mode as the markets are trending down. If the markets had a turn around as Tom stated and you try to jump in you may be too late. If you look at the markets at this time if I was more confident in it. I would play the C fund tomorrow but I did not as I went G. If I get the bounceand make an 8 second ride I have cashed it in tomorrow. If the markets go up tomorrow then I made a wrong play, didn't I. If C & S go up tomorrow, I may play theI fund, as itcontinues down tomorrow. If all of them go down then I'll watch how deep they go and take my chances or do nothing. Every day is another opportunity. If I was in a trending up market, I would play differently. It looks like I might make my 8 second ride but the market can spin very quickly or just walk out of the chute.:^

 

[vectorman]

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Thanks Cowboy, I understand. I was 40 C and60 S today, but saw how the overseas markets were climbing in after hours trading. Switched to 100% I for just tomorrow. I just thought I take the chance to see if it carries over to tomorrow. I have 10 years left to retirement so alittle risk now will not be so bad. I least I'm smart enough now not to ride the market down now as I as did in 2002.:X

 

[cowboy]

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vectorman wrote:

Thanks Cowboy, I understand. I was 40 C and60 S today, but saw how the overseas markets were climbing in after hours trading. Switched to 100% I for just tomorrow. I just thought I take the chance to see if it carries over to tomorrow. I have 10 years left to retirement so alittle risk now will not be so bad. I least I'm smart enough now not to ride the market down now as I as did in 2002.:X

Mmmm? Your setting in I fund now, right. I guess my little crystal ball is saying the I fund will be down tomorrow, again. That is why I am G at the moment but just like today I could be wrong, but the markets reversed like Tom stated but then went bearish very quickly, in other words a double reverse and all markets heading down again. I'm thinking the I fund dropped more then you think today or will show down right away in the morning. This not good! Unless it moved down to close to $15.00 at close today and bounces tomorrow. I just don't see this happening unless I am missing something. One thing about the I fund if your new. I learned this the hard way. You have to make a move prior to 11:00 am to get the close that evening. If the market does not slide all the way down by close to what the dollar gained theday of your move then you start in the morning with your shares down, a losing situation. I got hooked this way several times. If you don't understand this I will try to explain it more clearly, just let me know.

 

[teknobucks]

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strange light volume selloff today....very strange.

 

[namor]

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vectorman wrote:

Does anyone else here miss Namor, at least he could take the edge off this marketfrustration by following his moves.

Thanks for the plug, vectorman.

I never advocated anybody to follow me. I am not an expert on anything but gambling. But that's pretty much what this is. You have a 20% chance every single day to hit the winning fund for the day. BUT, you have abetter than 50%chance to make money in the volatile fund every day. If you don't move, you can't win. You can't lose either if you don't move, but you won't win by playing it safe unless there is a crash. Using your other info, you can actually increase your odds.

I don't know if I was missed, but I sure missed posting, even if I was the only one reading my account. What a crappy way to start the New Year, being shut out ofhere at work,but I have have put in a request for tsptalk.com to be added to the list of approved sitesin my agency. Hopefully it will be approved and I can come back and have fun here again.

Thanks again for the holler. Good luck in your investments.

 

[learning]

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Well it is nice to be out of the woods. Now, what we need is a good bear hunter. Someone out there know how to go bear baiting or traping? That is what it is starting to look like. We have a nasty little bear out there comming in and taking myfood when I'm not looking. I move just in time to take the hit and get out just before it goes up. What a deal. I whimped out and was out on the close of the 11th. 100%G now.

I do believe there is some good times ahead. I suspect the dollar to lose from now to around a week before the fed meets again. Then the dollar will start a little climb. I intend to put some into the I fund. Need to read a little first have not had time yet to do that. I suspect the fed will do the .25 in Feb then give some real talk about the dollar and hint of a bigger up on the intrest rate. I suspect they will prop the dollar a little. Over all it will head back down and go that way tell summer. This is just a guess. Smart money, do the opposit of me. Please do not follow me. I am just giving ideas.

P.S. where is the area on thissight that people poastwhat they are doing? Several of you appear to have it togther. I would like to know. Perhaps if several good people do the same thing I might try and follow once in awhile. Provided I get a little more brave. The bear on the market is a lot meaner then the one in the woods. The bears in the woods run from you, the market stalks you.:shock: LOL

 

[Guest]

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learning wrote:

P.S. where is the area on thissight that people poastwhat they are doing? Several of you appear to have it togther. I would like to know. Perhaps if several good people do the same thing I might try and follow once in awhile. Provided I get a little more brave. The bear on the market is a lot meaner then the one in the woods. The bears in the woods run from you, the market stalks you.:shock: LOL

It's called

Member Allocations, Transactions and Returns


I just found it recently myself.

Yeah, could you imagine if the TSP let you short your funds? Some of the people here would go even more crazy than they do now. :l (not to mention broke) It is interesting tho, for those who think that they can handle it,that there ARE mutual funds out there that offer double the C fund or S fund or I fund through the use of futures and options. They also offer shorting these funds (making money when the funds go down) We aren't allowed that option though. I wonder if we will ever be allowed to do that?

(For those of you who are looking for more information on funds like the ones I've just described, there are several. Two that come to mind are ProFunds andRydex. You can invest in funds that have the goal of obtaining double the C fund for example....or double the inverse of the C fund (in other words, if the C fund loses 5% you make 10%). These funds are not for widows or orphans...needless to say...)

 

[Skip]

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vectorman:

Ihave a account look under the tsp accounts posts....

Made a move to 40%I 60% g yesterday.... I didn't have any signals but the market was looking good for a change and I was trying to short the dollar and go long on the I fund..... "a fool and his money" looks like I lost for today....

friday might be a wild day....

link to post.... http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp

From Ed Downs....

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Late-Day Decline[/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Dow holds steady throughout session, but drops to the Close.[/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]
From prior commentary, "...as has been the case lately, we will likely see further volatility within the boundaries of the range. A downside push back below 10,550 could make for a push below 10,500 tomorrow;..." [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow opened the session quietly lower this morning, as the index pulled back from yesterday's highs to begin the day, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index then traded sluggishly sideways the remainder of the day until late in the session when the Dow broke below 10,550. The break led to a steep decline to 10,500, where it closed the day lower by 112 points. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Looking at the 15 and 60 Minute Charts shows that the Dow continues to trade within the boundaries of the wildly volatile trading range, which has formed at the lows of the recent decline. Typically, this type of behavior is highly bearish, as the charts are displaying instability through the pattern. If the Dow gets a decisive break through 10,450, we could be in for another steep decline toward 10,350. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Otherwise, the Dow is very likely to remain within the boundaries of the expanding range before such a break occurs. An upside push back above 10,550 could indicate strength toward 10,625 tomorrow. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Short Term Dow [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Short term, the Dow closed the day right at the key 10,500 level, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch this level at the Open tomorrow; using it as a fulcrum for short term direction. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Medium Term Dow [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]In the medium term, we are still out of the market, since none of our entry levels were triggered. We will watch 10,450 down, and 10,600 up tomorrow; using 20 point stops. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]NASDAQ & S&P [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The S&P and NASDAQ each traded lower to the Close, but remain within the boundaries of their respective trading ranges. Look for continued volatility within the boundaries of the pattern before another clear move occurs. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Summary [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow closed the day sharply lower after getting a steep sell-off late in the session. The Dow is now holding near the bottom of the expanding range, as it continues to gear up for the next big move. A downside break is the most likely scenario, but a break either way should yield key movement. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading! [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com [/font]

 

[vectorman]

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Thanks Skip, appreciate the input.

 

[Spaf]

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learning wrote:

100%G now.

I think that was a reasonable transfer. I transfered to 50% G and 50% stocks. Taking another look at the market, crude oil up to $48.04. Indicators for the S&P are mainly saying to sell for the short term. Some buying would be OK for the long term.

Reference:
http://www.barchart.com/

The close today did not impress me. Even with some good news the market fades to declines in the PM activity. My stop point was the 1180 marker in S&P. The 50/50 transfer was more of a gut feeling. On re-analysis the transfer was changed to 100% G, effective tomorrow PM, maybe, just maybe, picking up any Friday gains. 1180 was my 1% stop loss figure. Next week will, with my luck, launch a huge advance. However, I'm sticking with my strategy, which is to minimize any losses, and to follow The Dow Theory. I feel that the smart money, is no longer in the market. Could be wrong, but I'm not seeing investors, especially with the PM fading.

One day to get out of Dodge, I hope they don't shoot my horse tomorrow!

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf