Market Talk

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Nov. 15, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Back to trading range....gads!

Elsewhere:......Target misses - hits stox!


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at.............1229.01, dn -4.70
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.147, up
RSI (strength) at.......59.9, dn
MACD (trend)....bullish
S-STO (signal)...------
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............56.98, dn -0.71

Tea Leaves:................Green.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100% stox
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1223, Trail: 1211.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[robo]

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I don't think this decline has much steam, just normal consolidation after a nice run the last couple of weeks.... Could see some more of the same tomorrow.... Todays action gave short term sell signals on some trading software, but all the Tech's I follow are still in the Buy mode.... How's it look to you Skip? Seems pretty healthy to me and maybe a little more downside but not much... Pulls backsome moretomorrow I'm adding some stockat the close..... Buying the dips!!! If we pull-back some more 1215 should hold, lots of support!!!!

Some comments from a Tech:

After seven weeks of solidvolume things have quieted down to the dull volume that characterized the summer when the market went nowhere. Here too we see that time is running out -- we must either see a rally on solid volume this week, or we could see a test of the 50-day moving averageinstead.

The next chart dramatically illustrates the rapid disposal of long NASDAQ 100 futures contracts recently held by commercial hedgers. In three weeks they went from a long position equivalent to more than 35,000 contracts to just 300 contracts.

As you look at the chart you can see that this has happened before, but with a smaller initial long position, and it took considerably longer than three weeks to reduce it. Nevertheless, in the past the index continued to rally until not only the long position was sold, but until a major short position was accumulated. NASDAQ 100 and Mini Contracts, Weighted Commitments of Traders
Through Monday, November 14th

The liquidation in commercial hedger long positions was not limited to the NASDAQ. It happened in both S&P 500 and Dow contracts as well. and Mini Contracts, Weighted Commitments of Traders
Through Monday, November 14th

 

[JOVARN]

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Robo: I think you are right. I have been tracking some big companys and the
fundamentals are the same and no major breakdowns seen. The company’s are at 2-4 year lows way too cheap to be ignored. I set up an on line account today and plan to buy a few on the dips and see what happens. This will be a new adventure for me so I am starting out slow.

 

[Greg]

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11/15/05TSP Fund Share Prices
G-fund$11.09
F-fund$10.530.020.19%
C-fund$13.31-$0.05-0.37%
S-fund$15.79-$0.12-0.75%
I-Fund$16.47-$0.09-0.54%

Month-To-Date Returns for November (since 010/31/2005)
S-fund2.00%
C-fund1.99%
I-fund0.37%
G-fund0.18%
F-fund0.00%

YTD Returns (since 12/31/2004)
S-fund7.20%
I-fund6.40%
G-fund3.84%
C-fund3.10%
F-fund1.06%

L-funds Return since 08/01/2005 - Date that L-funds were started
L20400.78%
L20300.73%
L20200.83%
L20100.94%
L-Inc0.95%
G Funds1.28%

 

[biggdog1]

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Tech try freecharts.com. On the home page at the left go to stocks. Type in .dwcpf (historical or charts). It will give you a daily :}:{for as far back as you can go.

 

[The_Technician]

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Thanks Biggdogg..:^.....its better than anything so far...but It only had data back to May 04....its useful but I wish I had more background data....

I suppose you have to go with what ya got.....

:dude:

 

[robo]

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Market just can't get going again, but that should change soon!!! Coin toss for today, up,down ,up, down..... Maybe oil supply numbers will help... We need the Turkey week rally to make new highs....

Some comments from a Tech:

Thanksgivingis a unique holiday week that frequently provides a bullish environment from which to kick off an end-of-the-year rally, so if the market is quiet until the holiday begins, it is conceivable that there will be a further delay of the sell signal.

The next chart shows how theS&P 500has been turned back by the downtrend line drawn through the August and September highs. If it fails to penetrate it this week there is a good chance that it will test the 50-day moving average instead.

 

[vectorman]

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Spaf wrote:

The Kingdom of TSP

Re-post Emotions Chart

Re-post of TSPTalk Cycle of Market Emotions Chart.................Where are we at?

Anxiety?

 

[Pilgrim]

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Can't you just go to BIGCHARTS.COM?? Type in DWCP in the window at the top and select java chart. You will get a chart that is interactive; as you move your cursor over data points, it displays the date, open, close, high, and low prices. In the setup field at the left you can tell it to go back as far as ten years.

 

[The_Technician]

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Hey there Pilgrim.....I am looking for tabulated data....thanks though...

U related to John Wayne....???

:^

 

[Soldat]

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Looks like the S fund is between optimism and excitement, the I is between Hope and Optimism. We should see some really good gains pretty soon, lets hope

 

[Pilgrim]

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Is there a problem with the Wilshire 4500 numbers from Yahoo, which we link to at the top? Can anyone explain the following discrepency?

11/16/2005 Whilshire.com CNN/money Big Charts Yahoo
Open 532.29 532.49 532.49 527.84
Close 532.12 532.16 532.16 527.79
Previous close 532.28 532.28 532.28 527.83

 

[JOVARN]

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U.S. Dollar Strengthens Against Euro
Wednesday November 16, 4:20 pm ET

BERLIN (AP) -- The U.S. dollar gained Wednesday against the euro, which slid back beneath $1.17 as data showed record net buying of U.S. securities in September.
The 12-nation euro bought $1.1686 in late New York trading, down from $1.1720 late Tuesday. The British pound bought $1.7163, down from $1.7351. The dollar also gained on the Japanese currency, climbing to 119.05 yen from 118.84 yen.

Hard to bet the I fund with the Dollar making gains on a daily basis

 

[robo]

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The market is holding up nicely andcould be setting up for a rally next week. It would be nice to get a pull buck to jump start it , but the wall of worry will do....

Tom's concerns about market action has gotton the Bulls attention this week... We need the rally soon or could see the50day moving tested. If tested, I think the Technicals favor it holding...Big caps holding up the best!!! GO, GO, Birchtree!!!!!!!



Closing comments from a Tech:

Closing Comment

The daily momentum indicator (MSO)is overbought, but could stay overbought!

The Hourly MSO isgetting oversold, but could get more oversold!

The15m MSO is getting overbought, and the 5m is overbought!

That's pretty much the picture I'm getting right now!

As of the close, the other indicators are a mixed bag and do not give me a clear sense of direction, but theprospects for goinghigher would beenhanced by A/D above 600+ at the opening and that figure maintained for the first half hour.

The criteria that I gave youinthe last update are as precise as I can get. Inaddition, if the SPX trades at 1233, it could push at least to 1236, and if it goes beyond 1236, the next valid target would be 1241. I don't see the possibility of anything beyond that at this point.

These are potential targets which developed on the Point and Figure chart as a result of the day's trading.

 

[robo]

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JOVARN Wrote:

Hard to bet the I fund with the Dollar making gains on a daily basis.

Reduce my I Fund exposure temporarily , thinking Big Caps will out perform the rest of the year.... You would think this USD rally is about over!!!!!!! How much more can she go????

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Nov. 16, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Stox mixed. Dow hit by cart manufacturer.

Elsewhere:......Yak says economics are strong, and lube prices are low.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at..................1231.21, up +2.20
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.084, dn
RSI (strength) at...........60.9, up
MACD (trend)....bullish
S-STO (signal)...bearish
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............57.88, up +0.90

Tea Leaves:................Green.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100% stox
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1223, Trail: 1211.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[Greg]

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11/16/05TSP Fund Share Prices
G-fund$11.09
F-fund$10.560.030.28%
C-fund$13.33$0.020.15%
S-fund$15.79$0.000.00%
I-Fund$16.42-$0.05-0.30%

L-funds Return since 08/01/2005 - Date that L-funds were started
L20400.78%
L20300.81%
L20200.91%
L20101.02%
L-Inc1.03%
G Funds1.28%

YTD Returns (since 12/31/2004)
G-fund3.84%
F-fund1.34%
C-fund3.25%
S-fund7.20%
I-fund6.07%

Month-To-Date Returns for November (since 10/31/2005)
G-fund0.18%
F-fund0.28%
C-fund2.15%
S-fund2.00%
I-fund0.06%

 

[Skip]

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Looks like we are starting to get a Little BEARISH....

The dow is starting to form a bearish pattern , not being able to hold above the 10720 level...

If we move below 10650 we could get a pull back... On the other hand if we hold above this level we could be in for a good run to the up side....

GM really hurt the dow today... trading at a new low and yielding a 8+ % yield !!!
Off 5+% today ... PG was up over 1% :^

If you look at the weekly charts last year we had 3 weeks up and 1 down right before we took off 11/15 So maybe a repeat , down this week up till xmas.. ?

Skip

 

[robo]

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Skip wrtote:

If you look at the weekly charts last year we had 3 weeks up and 1 down right before we took off 11/15 So maybe a repeat , down this week up till xmas.. ?

The marketrarely goes down during the period from Thanksgiving to New Year. If we don't geta pull back soon. I'll add additional shares atcurrent levels... Technicals during an upward trend sometimes are very misleading.... Everyone is eager to join the party no matter what the cost..... The rally will continue soon!!!!! How far it goes is the next question....... Once we clear 1245, 1260-1275 looks good!!!

 

[Soldat]

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Skip, I think your right. Trading seasonally is often the most wise. You have my vote of confidence.