Market Talk

[The_Technician]

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Well, what will the trend turn to tomorrow.....last week we held on to prices on Friday....only on Monday and following we dropped like lead....will the same happen tomorrow....???:?

Plan well and recognize you're in a unstable market with the feet being knocked out from under it.....



:dude:

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Oct. 13, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Vestors remain skiddish! Worries about Horseman Inflate!

Elswwhere:.... Lube buckets being filled!

Question:..... Will October be the bear slayer month?


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at.............1176.84, dn -0.84
CMF (money flow) at.-0.138, up
RSI (strength) at......28.7, even
MACD (trend)....bearish
S-STO (signal)...oversold
P-SAR (signal)...bearish
ROC (change)...bearish (-3.19)

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.........63.08, dn +1.04

Tea Leaves:.................Yellow


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 0/100
S&P Stops:.....Alert: NA, Trail: NA.
Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[Skip]

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Robo

Looks like I need to adjust the system ...
Missed today by less than .15 on the support level

Would like to be in the market now but will wait for friday's action....

the 1165 support level was not the low for the day 1168

Support might be HERE ???? Does that mean we are going to test 1165 ?

Whats your take....

Skip

 

[robo]

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Skip wrote:

the 1165 support level was not the low for the day 1168

I hope we have hit bottom, BUT still a coin toss on 1165!I agree on getting in the market, anyone buying now and willing to hold I think will see some nice gains by the end of the year. Still have sell signals from the Tech's I follow. Sometimes I have to remind myself I'm an investor and not a trader. Unlimited moves in TSP has changed my life style... I never watched the stock market before like I do now... I spend waaaaaaaaayyyyyyyy to many hours reading and watching market stufffff!

Let's hope the lows arein!!!!!!

Thursday 10/13 2005 Morning Comment

Since we did not get killed at the opening, some preliminary footing-finding may be taking place. The hourly charts are encouragingly both oversold and showing positive divergence, and this time, the MSOs are oversold as well. First time since the top of the second down wave! Furthermore, they, too, are showing positive divergence. Finally, the A/D, although still negative, is much less so than it was in the past two days.

All these are incipient positives, and if they continue, they may blossom in a VST reversal.

Closing Comment

This is the best action of the week so far, with the Qs leading the way. If followed by addtitional good action tomorrow, it couldsignal aVST or short-term reversal.

If the lows have been seen, It is now a process of re-establishing and uptrend, and the A/D will have to start giving us some positive numbers.

Today was encouraging, but not decisive. There is still plenty of work to do in the daily indicators.

Tuesday's chart!

With the S&P 500 below its support band it is likely that it will now test its uptrend line around 1180 or just below. Then, a bounce back up to 1190 to test the band. Following these tests we can expect either a breakout to test the 1137.50 low, or a breakout above the support band to test the high for the year at 1245.

The very large number of negative indicators, and the total absence of positive indicators suggest that the market is too oversold to test the low of the year until after the upside test is made.

 

[bkrownd]

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Does a chart like that, with the neatly increasing line, have any basis in economic fact or theory, due to inflation, earnings, productivity, etc? That is, does the slope of that line under the data MEAN anything, or is it just a game of connect-the-dots which leads the eye to a conclusion that doesn't really hold water? That is what I would REALLY like to know.

 

[Spaf]

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bkrownd wrote:

Does a chart like that, with the neatly increasing line, have any basis in economic fact or theory, due to inflation, earnings, productivity, etc? That is, does the slope of that line under the data MEAN anything, or is it just a game of connect-the-dots which leads the eye to a conclusion that doesn't really hold water? That is what I would REALLY like to know.

Charts can give a understanding of where you've been and maybe where you're headed. Charts can be a useful trading tool. However, IMHO they should'nt be taken as a forecasting tool.

To understand where we are going is where the fundamentals come into play: That is observing market behavior. What is the real economic picture, and are we in any particular business cycle.

Rgds Spaf

 

[Greg]

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Spaf wrote:

Charts can give a understanding of where you've been and maybe where you're headed. Charts can be a useful trading tool. However, IMHO they should'nt be taken as a forecasting tool.

To understand where we are going is where the fundamentals come into play: That is observing market behavior. What is the real economic picture, and are we in any particular business cycle.

Spa, Are we currently in any particular business cycle?

 

[robo]

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bkrownd wrote:

Does a chart like that, with the neatly increasing line, have any basis in economic fact or theory,

No. The market moves in trends learn them and you can make money.

The guy thatwrote that chart gave a sell signal on Sept 30 and still has a sell signal in place.

Not a bad call. He's up 23% in his account this year. I don't care about economic fact or therory I'm a trend trader and proud of it....

What's your advice? I hope it's not buy and hold.

 

[bkrownd]

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robo wrote:

bkrownd wrote:

Does a chart like that, with the neatly increasing line, have any basis in economic fact or theory,

No. The market moves in trends learn them and you can make money.

Sure, but recognizing a "trend" should be based on something more solid than a game of connect-the-dots, shouldn't it? There should be something to relate the data to an economic model based on a set of simple economic variables, which would give a real analysis of value and risk.

 

[vectorman]

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http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

 

[Spaf]

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Market data

Right now we are in a "oversold" area. Sellers (bears) are winning! Does this mean that "buyers" (bulls) will take over. Could be, but the question is when?

What do the fundamentals say:
1. We are in the Q-4, best seasonal cycle.
2. Inflation, earnings, and energy are critical factors.
3. The market is over-sold.

IMHO: If there are some good earnings, and energy reportsremaining low; will advance the market. If the Horsemen (Krude, Inflate, Earnie, and Rats) are not contained, then Vestors are on their own.

Without Tekno, we are flying a bit blind. It takes a special Knack to read the fundamentals.

Rgds Spaf

 

[Show-me]

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mlk_man wrote:

Show-me wrote:

Can anyone give my a direction on futures. I see a lot of people reference S&P 500 futures but since I have started watching them they do not seem to be a very good indicator of the next days action. Are they after hours trading?

Futures definitely aren't a great indicator of how the market will end up, but they do set the mood for the day. On the S&P I'd say anything less than about 2 points is pretty much flat. Right now they are sitting at about 4 pts up so the market should be up today unless we get some bad report or something. :^

I'm slow. So are the futures after hours trading or is it just sentiment/hope?

 

[The_Technician]

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Well trend charts are fine as long as the trend remains the trend.....buttttttt, the trend is changing direction and I would not count on that chart with your money.....

Robo your tech saw a sell in Sept 23, at least he now agrees with my sell signals of Sept-Oct timeframe that I was getting from way back in late spring and early summer....this supports my trend analysis which now shows a new direction in the trend.

I sat in the G fund trying to get a handle on day to day trading of the fund since spring and I'm still over %5 up, I did this because I felt I needed it. I new it was going to peak out in the fall and thus required some respect, but I didn't know how the market in general was going to perform up till then.....I have passed up many opportunities to get in and have learned a trememdous amount in index trading trends........but after what I have seen in the recent trend analysis, I will sit it out some more and wait. It will be months before we see any sign that its safe to get back in on even a daily basis.....:?

It's slip sliding away......:^

The Technician :dude:

 

[mlk_man]

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I believe mainly after hours trading and mutual fund trading. If a boat load of people sold their large cap funds yesterday, they would get the closing NAV of the day and this would be tally'd by the computers as "pre-market" activity and send the S&P lower on the open.

Do I have this right TA folks?

 

[bkrownd]

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The Technician wrote:

Well trend charts are fine as long as the trend remains the trend.....buttttttt, the trend is changing direction and I would not count on that chart with your money.....

My gut feeling is that the "trend", in terms of predicting the future, is largely a combination of wishful thinking and optical illusion. If the index follows the "trend", then the "trend" is pronounced valid. If the index does not follow the "trend", then the viewer merely pronounces a "new trend" and starts connecting a different set of dots. Wash, rinse, repeat...

 

[The_Technician]

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brkowned wrote:

"My gut feeling is that the "trend", in terms of predicting the future, is largely a combination of wishful thinking and optical illusion. If the index follows the "trend", then the "trend" is pronounced valid. If the index does not follow the "trend", then the viewer merely pronounces a "new trend" and starts connecting a different set of dots. Wash, rinse, repeat... "




Then apparently you don't have any mathmatical background or if you do, you haven't used it yet......the market trend can be mathmatically described and curve fitted.....when the economics and the trend analysis match up....watch out..and that's what we have going here....

:^

 

[bkrownd]

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The Technician wrote:

Then apparently you don't have any mathmatical background or if you do, you haven't used it yet......the market trend can be mathmatically described and curve fitted.....when the economics and the trend analysis match up....watch out..and that's what we have going here....

In fact, it is because I DO have a "mathematical background" that I'm so skeptical of it. Yeah, you can fit a curve to just about anything, but it doesn't mean squat without showing that you understand the underlying mechanisms at work. I'm asking where the "analysis" is, besides drawing lines and waving hands and idle babble about "support levels" and "resistance levels" and whatnot. I haven't seen any true analysis yet.

 

[mlk_man]

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bkrownd wrote:

In fact, it is because I DO have a "mathematical background" that I'm so skeptical of it. Yeah, you can fit a curve to just about anything, but it doesn't mean squat without showing that you understand the underlying mechanisms at work. I'm asking where the "analysis" is, besides drawing lines and waving hands and idle babble about "support levels" and "resistance levels" and whatnot. I haven't seen any true analysis yet.

Plenty of pay sites out there if you're not happy with the idle babble here. :^

 

[The_Technician]

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Here are some other tidbits for you guys to chew on....

on 16 Sept, there was a sharp increase of daily volume for the S&P, since then the daily volume has steadly been higher than normal....and the market isn't going up....so that means....what......

Seeing that we have been basically diving for a while, look for the market to go sideways before any rebound....its has to show some resillience before any major market player will be interested again for a while....it other words don't count on the market to make a remarkable comeback overnight....why would any major money be interested in something that is unstable....so don't count on making any %'s for sometime....its time to take a breather...and its going to be a while....:shock:

Accumulation indicates that the market has been going down since Aug 8....remember I mentioned that Aug 8 was a black Monday....well now you are seeing why I said that.....

Fuel prices are coming down, but they have taken too much bite out of the economy, people are going very conservative, ......itsaffecting consumer sales......their income hasn't risen to match the so called no-inflation assessment of the govt as recently as Early Sept.....so expect poor corporate earnings for a while......:shock:

Hey, take a load off and enjoy the holidays.....if you can....

Sometimes I really wonder about the people who are pulling the strings....they just don't look far enough out in the future to understand what will happen if they do what they are about to do today.......its is apparent we need more control systems to dampen rapid run up in energy sectors of the market...if we had some dampening, we would still be looking forward to a good corporate picture.....its all control theory and feedback loops.....I just wish someone would take a look at it.....



:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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bkrownd wrote:

The Technician wrote:

Then apparently you don't have any mathmatical background or if you do, you haven't used it yet......the market trend can be mathmatically described and curve fitted.....when the economics and the trend analysis match up....watch out..and that's what we have going here....

In fact, it is because I DO have a "mathematical background" that I'm so skeptical of it. Yeah, you can fit a curve to just about anything, but it doesn't mean squat without showing that you understand the underlying mechanisms at work. I'm asking where the "analysis" is, besides drawing lines and waving hands and idle babble about "support levels" and "resistance levels" and whatnot. I haven't seen any true analysis yet.

Well I see bk.....you haven't been on the board long....there has been plenty of analysis economically to back up what I just said.....basically its this, the overall economic picture isn't supportive of good business....the underlying mechanisms are getting less attractive, some draw lines because they draw lines for analysis, with or without understanding how to use them, I haven't seen any waving hands, and the babble isn't idle.....

Give yourself some time and you will see some analysis....that is the characteristic of such a board like this.....in other words I think you are rushing it a bit for the little time you have been on the board....

:dude: