Market Talk

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date August 1, 2005 Closing


Market News.

News: Vestors juggling mixed signals of high stocks and high oil.

Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1235.35, up +1.17
CMF (money flow) at 0.172, dn
RSI (strength) at 59.6, up
MACD (trend) at 9.03, dn, near crossover
Slow STO (signal) at 72.74K, 83.44D
ROC (change) at 0.72, dn

Nymex (Oil)
Closed at 61.57, up +1.00


Tea Leaves: Yellow (caution) Oil critical, indicators weak.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 100/0.
S&P Stops: Alert = 1232, Trail = 1220.
 
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Construction is down....

[align=left]Actual
-0.3%

Consensus
0.5%

Consensus Range
0.2% to 1.1%


[align=left]
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Construction spending fell 0.9 percent in May. While housing starts are not declining, neither are they showing strong signs of acceleration. Thus, they are likely to add less and less in upcoming months to ongoing construction expenditures.

Construction spending Consensus Forecast for June 05: 0.5 percent
Range: 0.2 to 1.1 percent


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends




chart.gif

class=econo-chartcaptionConstruction spending has moderated significantly over the past year despite strenth in the housing market. Residential construction is not growing as rapidly as it did even though current levels are high. Nonresidential construction has begun to improve, but gains are still modest.[/align]
But consumer spending is up in June.....wonder what from.....[/align]
[align=left]Actual
0.9%


class=econo-sectiontitleHighlights
ICSC-UBS's weekly chain store index shot up in the July 30 week as hot weather drove sales of summer merchandise. ICSC-UBS's index jumped 0.9% in the week to a year-on-year pace of 4.9%, its strongest rate in a year. But the report noted the weather dampened sales of back-to-school merchandise, which are just beginning to be stocked on store shelves. On Thursday, chain stores will post their results. [/align]

[align=left]Actual
0.5%

Consensus
0.4%

Consensus Range
0.2% to 0.5%









Consumer Spending, M/M change

Actual
0.8%

Consensus
0.8%

Consensus Range
0.6% to 1.1%


[align=left]
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income increased 0.2 percent in May. June gains could be equally moderate since nonfarm payrolls inched up modestly, hourly earnings grew at the same pace as in May, and the average workweek was unchanged. Personal consumption expenditures were unchanged in May. Retail sales surged in June in part on gains in motor vehicle sales - and this points to faster growth in personal consumption expenditures as well.

Personal income Consensus Forecast for June 05: 0.4 percent
Range: 0.2 to 0.5 percent

Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for June 05: 0.8 percent
Range: 0.6 to 1.1 percent


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends




chart.gif

class=econo-chartcaptionChanges in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.




chart_1.gif

class=econo-chartcaptionMonthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next. [/align]
GM problems go further than their medical expenses....read this[/align]
What gets my goat is I took my car in for a problem, it turns out to be a failed computer.....costs, 400$ plus the $45 towing charge to get it there, heck I even had to tell the technician after he tested all the sensors (they were in good workingorder)that it was the cars computer........its a Tahoe, a GM product, now if I had that simple software that GM has running their cars (it isn't that difficult to use, heck if I had the codes I could write a program for it in a week) I could have figured it out myself....maybe if GM would make it available as a product support sales product for a reasonable price designed for use on a laptop with free data updates off the web and so forth, more people would buy GM....they were famous in the past for an auto that was CHEAP to fix......but today, every GM car they sell today have high maintenance costs as if you owned a Cadillac!!! Even the computer the technician is using is nothing but a simple computer that they want $3000 for......what an overvalued product......a $700 laptop has far more capability.....

Guess the general public today just ain't smart enough to design and build or maintain cars.....hmmmmm...wonder where them GM engineers come from.....????

:dude:
 
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Are you watching the wall flower today - currently she is out dancing the pretty girl and holding up almost 7 points compared to 3 points for the favorite S fund. Would really like to see a push through sp500 of 1245 this afternoon. The utilities are also running hard. The DTA continues to wait on the DJIA - politeness Could this end up being a 100 point Dow day? Technician, call your friends and get some buyers.
 
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Hey Birch.....gotta hand it to you for bravery, I can't be brave like you since I haven't been in indexs very long....but.....I haven't been sitting on my laurels .....I've been analyzing away this morning....you see, I've haven't been satisfied with the market slide dates of mine lately.....I thought Sept-Oct would be a possibility, then maybe Dec.....but its been hard to tell....now I am more confident of a possiblity in Sept.

Looking at the current situation looks like we are currently missing an index correction, we should've hit 1183on the S&P here lately........last time I saw this the market started to drop, in about amonth, 20%......as a matter of my 1183 support line I mentioned yesterday, I fear we will drop below it......those numbers could be in and around the range 1050.....

Currently, I believe we will continue to go up, maybe even get to 1255.......but as the days go by in Aug....I fear we will get closer to a drop, Sept looks to bethe start of the downslide.....

So, good going Birch....maybe get out or go short in Sept....

:dude:
 
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Sorry, but I have no place else to go - can't get out or go short. Just riding on the horns of this bull market. Thanks for your input. I am aware of the 4 year cycles, and I'm concerned about what I think is speculative chasing after the small-cap momentum.

But on the pluse side the sp500 has broken from a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is a distinctly bullish pattern, and is notable in part because the S&P formed a similar pattern before breaking out last November. I know my sending out a warning might sound strange regarding the pretty girl S fund, but then again I am a contrarian bull by nature. I feel safer with my wall flower - she's a keeper.
 
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Birch wrote

"the sp500 has broken from a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is a distinctly bullish pattern, and is notable in part because the S&P formed a similar pattern before breaking out last November"

Its also a pattern of an overbought condition.....expect this right before a fall.....

My decision of a fall is more than a pattern,the economy news looks great, but is it really that great???? Personally, from who I talk with, it su%#s! Every company is making alot of money, with high prices and lower wages....even though the wage data looks better, its not enough....

You can only squeeze so much out.....close your eyes and look ahead at the company data for the next year or so....tell me .....what do you see????

:^
 
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Spaf is back - put out the word. I can finally stop with that Brenda Lee song in my head "All alone am I ever since your goodby". I'm relieved - wanna lend me what you are keeping in reserve - I have just the place for the money. I can either spend it on my wall flower or buy oats and grains. Hitting targets today is like using a shotgun - can't miss.
 
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CAFTA is signed by Bush...not sure, but I think we will lose here...

Next is a free trade agreement with countries in Asia and Middle East.....they're coming already in the works....sooner or later we won't be working at all, just buying with our savings.....and then what......maybe housing prices are gonna drop like a brick just as soon as they figure out that the young and restless don't have a decent income....:h

I heard there is new job training available.....flipping burgers at McDonald's...:l

Sorry W....I think you and your constituents are taking us too far too fast.....its gonna wreck our way of life, definitely unstable :@.....(of course they may not care:zz).

:U
 
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I fear creeping globalizaton is a fact. Either we participate or we get let behind in isolation. A useful analogy might be Apple and Microsoft, us taking the part of Apple, and maintaining proprietary status. We have enjoyed the boundaries of oceans and luxeries of education, superior firepower, vast natural resources and imported wealth. Many of these advantages are now being compromised, and we are being forced to compete, wether we want to or not. At least with these FTA's we get to be in the game...
 
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Birchtree wrote:
Spaf is back - put out the word. I can finally stop with that Brenda Lee song in my head "All alone am I ever since your goodby". I'm relieved - wanna lend me what you are keeping in reserve - I have just the place for the money. I can either spend it on my wall flower or buy oats and grains. Hitting targets today is like using a shotgun - can't miss.
I had my bass boat all picked out! Now she wants a pontoon boat! Thats just a bigger motor and more gas! Better kick the TSP out of the hanger!

I didn't know that Birch could sing? :D

Rgds Spaf
 
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Oil Markers

Was using oil markers of <55=Ok, 55-60=worry, and >60=critical. However, these numbers don't seem to be realistic any more.

Oil is nearing $62 a bucket, and the market is humming right along.

Any thoughts?

Rgds Spaf
 
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I just made an analysis on the past data and I don't like what I see on Aug 7 (8th for the market)....this coming week.....I figured Aug 1 would be a breaking day....but this may be the one I've been looking for in Sept Oct.......

Be very cautious...protect and then lets see what happens.....
 
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The Technician wrote:
I just made an analysis on the past data and I don't like what I see on Aug 7 (8th for the market)....this coming week.....I figured Aug 1 would be a breaking day....but this may be the one I've been looking for in Sept Oct.......

Be very cautious...protect and then lets see what happens.....
Tech, what did you see that you didn't like?
 
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Well, ....there isdata that you can't see by the naked eye that showssometrends, I'm not going to give you the details, I'm really sorry but its something I have put 15 years in knocking around it...but its definitely there....

Given also that the Accumulation has been weak itself....(today is not good either), the economic conditions, the future corporated profits and so on...

It showed up justa few minutes ago while I was ripping away at it trying to get a picture of what's happening........

In simpler terms, I got a date on the pattern....its the 7th....its a strong strong possibility....we all are expecting something to come sooner or later....that week would fit in just perfect if you look at a future headline like "Market doesn't wash with the economic picture"

Lets just say, remember a couple of date predictions back in April, Maythat I jumped on close....well since then, the market has changed face and It has been difficult for me to detect it....well, I think I found out how and why...and now I see something significant...;)

I could be wrong, but I posted because I feel its important enough to take this risk of notification to you guys....:^

Hope it all works out.....

:dude:
 
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The Technician wrote:
Well, ....there isdata that you can't see by the naked eye that showssometrends, I'm not going to give you the details, I'm really sorry but its something I have put 15 years in knocking around it...but its definitely there..
how bout a hint??:@

have 2 go back to a floor tile project ... but will check herelater for some clues.
 
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U smoothing up to me Tekx$'s????:l

Sorry, I can't reveal my ways...its been a long road for me....I only hope I make something of it before I die!!!:*:x

Get back to work on those tiles!!!:X

:^
 
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